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More men are addicted to the 'crack cocaine' of the stock market

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Re: More men are addicted to the 'crack cocaine' of the stock market

#541
post #527

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's probably the benefit of you not being 24/7 glued to the broadcast system called social media. I imagine in the 70s you spent your time mostly with friends in real life, and geopolitics was just 10 easily missable minutes on TV every evening. Sure maybe there's a minority of kids with social media/smartphone bans nowadays, but they're probably as plentiful as 13 year olds interested in geopolitics in the 1970s.…

You don't need social media to be aware of what's going on in the world. At 13 (early 2000ish) I was reading the newspapers my parents brought home and debated a friend of mine who in turn read his parents' newspapers - mutually exclusive sets from opposite ends of the political spectrum. I need ask: when is the best moment to, as a parent, introduce a young person to the news cycle? You'll inevitably have to since t…

You don't even need newspapers or debates, sometimes existing leads children to politics. I'm a similar age to you, and social media didn't exist yet but I had political opinions.

My first independent political opinion (if we can expand politics to include techno/digital politics and not just national/state/local government politics) was formed at the age of 4/5. Just from reading discussions and arguments around me.

And, as a girl and a lesbian, I was starting to read ideological theory in part to cope with my life situation pretty early: I followed news about gay issues because I knew I was gay at 6/7 and it was clear that some people were okay with that and some were very much not and I needed to know the difference. Likewise with being female - the switch up in how I was treated by men when I crossed the pubescent threshold led me to seeking out books/works/discussions on feminism (as well as arguments against it). Suddenly, people cared a lot more about my body than they ever had before, and as an intellectual child, I wanted to understand what was going on.

I'd expect that's even more common now and extends to new groups of people. I know I've seen young men/teenage boys talk about how a lot of anti-male sentiment filters down and makes them feel terrible and also having to deal with their own switch in puberty where people go from feeling protective of them to scared of them.

A lot of politics and the news cycle has to do with domestic cultural issues, and many children are very aware of those by the time they reach 9 or 10.

International politics is something that a lot of adults don't engage with on any meaningful level, and conflating the news/political awareness solely with international military conflict would be an error, I think.

I think the best time to introduce children to politics and the news cycle is when they start asking questions about why the world is the way it is, or why different families/places do things differently than their own family or culture. Or when something political touches their life in a very personal way: e.g. the Japanese-American children being interned during WWII would have to be introduced to politics. This is going to vary by child; I don't think there is a hard and fast rule.

Re: More men are addicted to the 'crack cocaine' of the stock market

#542

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A bit off-topic, but it’s interesting how this became the de-facto answer to any question related to “meaning of life” in the last 2-3 years in HN/tech circles. I’m not saying you’re wrong, but it’s a bit weird. Like I’m sure everyone knows that? If a person isn’t having a child in their 30s, they either can’t because of multitude of different reasons, or they decided they don’t want to. Disclaimer: I’m as pro-kid as…

I think it's a pushback against the emphasis on individualism in our culture, which many find does not lead to real fulfillment. When you start a family, you're giving up your own glory, but in doing so you become deeply integrated into something greater than yourself, which makes you greater by extension. And I say this as someone who doesn't have kids either, and as someone who used to not be so excited by the pros…

I find this interesting as one of the individualist characteristics of our society is 'my children > everyone else'. I don't see the emphasis on having children as anti-individualist at all.

Many parents are completely unwilling to hold their children to account/tell them no/let them fail/etc. The experience of the people around their children means nothing to them. Teaching their children to be a part of society does not matter: All that matters is their children get what they want because their children are extensions of themselves.

Re: More men are addicted to the 'crack cocaine' of the stock market

#543
post #503
post #442

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’ll add it to my reading list, but I think a lot has changed in the world since this book was written.

What hasn't changed: * US economy has been growing steadily, and will do so for the foreseeable future * Index funds are still a great way to invest your money And more importantly, * Most people suck at picking stocks (including the average Joe, mutual fund managers, YouTube/TikTok influencers and "stock analysts"). It's better to just leave it to the market, aka SPY(VOO)/VTI etc., and have good sleep.

Fair. Many people will continue to invest in ETFs for a long time, but when people start retiring and selling from their ETFs, then the party is going to end.

ETFs, because of their algorithmic known trading, don’t always get the best price for their underlying assets. Notice how before an ETF is created (see bitcoin) or a company enters the snp500, the stock shoots up in price.

Re: More men are addicted to the 'crack cocaine' of the stock market

#544

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> At the time I guessed that he was much smarter than me — that it would take me years to become as investment-savvy as this guy was. You lucked out by mistakingly believing he was intelligent. The classic scenario is when your neighbor is obviously an idiot, making tremendous amounts of money in the market, and you have to explain to your spouse why you can't/won't emulate them. That's when even bright, (normally) l…

Indeed, most frustrating is when someone (stupid) is proven right, even though they used completely wrong reasoning (in spirit of Gettier problem).

There’s a common saying in the investing world that applies here: “confusing strategy with outcome.” The outcome may be good, as it was in this case, even though the strategy was terrible. But most people get them confused and think it’s the strategy (going all in on bitcoin or TSLA options or whatever) that was good and won them their riches.

Re: More men are addicted to the 'crack cocaine' of the stock market

#545
post #323

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Good insured real estate is always a good safe bet. The best conservative investment that current & few past gens could have done while being completely clueless about stocks, markets, politics etc. People need to live someplace to be just part of society and also to just survive, plus there is emotional and status aspect. Western construction is lagging behind population growth in popular places plus running / ran o…

I've done the math for a bunch of properties family and friends have owned, and they were never beating index funds. Do the math and you'll find that putting your money in an index fund almost always beats real estate, with much less risk and much less work. It's easy for one property to underperform the market by a lot. It's hard for an index fund to do the same. I own a $1.5M rental home in a luxury destination and…

Yeah, no one ever accounts for the labor requirements for these projects. If you can earn $100/hr from your career or contracting work, then spending 20 hours per month finding tenants, mowing lawns, fixing plumbing issues, etc, gets expensive fast.

Re: More men are addicted to the 'crack cocaine' of the stock market

#546
post #512

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've done the math for a bunch of properties family and friends have owned, and they were never beating index funds. Do the math and you'll find that putting your money in an index fund almost always beats real estate, with much less risk and much less work. It's easy for one property to underperform the market by a lot. It's hard for an index fund to do the same. I own a $1.5M rental home in a luxury destination and…

I've found this to often also be the case, but leverage completely blows these numbers up. you'd be right if someone was willing to let you lever up 5:1 and bet on index funds. however you can only accomplish this with real estate, and with such leverage the required rate of return is far lower to make it worth it.

TQQQ is 3:1.

Every time I ask people to factor in their time in managing the property (yes, even time spent finding the property to buy counts), they end up way behind.

Re: More men are addicted to the 'crack cocaine' of the stock market

#547
post #376

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The federal reserve literally just got through a monetary tightening policy that paid zero regard to the stock market. The fed will juice to keep employment up and tighten to keep inflation down. They will not support stocks at the expense of those mandates

We're dealing with people who interpret the words "price stability" to mean "prices should increase exponentially, we'd consider it a serious problem if they stayed level". It seems a bit of a stretch to go from that to believing that their mandate constrains them somehow. Their mandate can be interpreted to mean whatever they want it to mean. They're a political beast, they're going to do whatever they can get away…

It’s impossible to keep prices perfectly steady, the Fed could not possibly be that precise. If they tried, we would bounce back and forth between inflation and deflation, which would be incredibly destabilizing to long-term investment… and therefore destabilizing to job growth and capital improvement, innovation, etc.

So instead the Fed aims for a small amount of inflation. That way when they miss a bit, we still stay out of deflation. It is much better to bounce between 2% and 3% than between -1% and 1%.

If the goal was actually to inflate the debt away, they would be aiming higher. Proof: the debt has been growing in real terms, not shrinking.

Re: More men are addicted to the 'crack cocaine' of the stock market

#548
I wonder if this could, in a manner of speaking, be a "rational" choice that indicates a breakdown in society. That is to say, perhaps some of what we are seeing is that younger people have concluded that the only way to live a decent life in America is to become rich and becoming rich mostly comes down to luck. If gambling is the only way to get a decent life then they may as well gamble. If they lose, then they were already going to have a bad life anyways.

Re: More men are addicted to the 'crack cocaine' of the stock market

#549
post #247

Many criticize the retail investor for treating the stock market like gambling, but I think it really does resemble gambling more than investing these days. How many times have we seen a companies value jump or fall by billions based on a tweet? How many meme stocks have we seen? How many pump and dump SPACs have there been? How many companies have never (and likely will never) made a dime in profit but see their mar…

Many things look like gambling on short time frames. Investing requires taking a long view that averages out the short-term noise like meme stocks.

It does require patience, which is admittedly harder to come by when you’re young.

Re: More men are addicted to the 'crack cocaine' of the stock market

#550

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is that I have been seeing some version of the “crash imminent, sell everything” thesis for my entire life. Almost nobody who “saw the crash coming” in the case of the dotcom bubble, or covid, or the subprime crisis made any money, because almost nobody gets the timing or magnitude of the crash right. You can find YouTube channels that have been warning people that a crash is imminent for the last two yea…

This is the reason dollar-cost-averaging works. You buy less (shares) when the market is high, and more when it is low, without thinking about it and without trying to "time" your transactions (which almost always fails unless you have inside info).

So what you're saying is you avoid timing the market (which doesn't work) by timing when you buy shares? What?
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