Sam blinks furiously when he's not telling the truth.
It's Time to Stop Taking Sam Altman at His Word
541–550 of 599 posts
Re: It's Time to Stop Taking Sam Altman at His Word
#542Better headline : It's too late to stop taking Sam Altman at his word See same with Elon Musk. Money turns genius to smooth brained egomaniacal idiots. See same with Steve Jobs
Keep in mind that this is going to be the default option for a lot of forums and social media for automated moderation. Reddit is already using it a lot and now a lot of the front page is clearly feedback farming for OpenAI. What I'm getting at is we're moving towards a future where only a certain type of dialog will be allowed on most social media and Sam Altman and his sponsors get to decide what that looks like. Since he's of YComb stock, the zeitgeist here seems to be let him cook, that is until he doesn't share the wealth with his market-cornering pals here.
Re: It's Time to Stop Taking Sam Altman at His Word
#543Re: It's Time to Stop Taking Sam Altman at His Word
#544Earlier quoted context omitted.
Theres never going to be quality data at tge scale they need it. At best, theres a slow march to incremental improvements that look exactly like how human culture developed knowledge. And all the downsides will remain, the same way people, despite hundreds of good sourxes of info still prefer garbage.
Video data is still very much untapped and likely to unlock a step function worth of data. Current image-language models are trained mostly on {image, caption} pairs with a bit of extra fine tuning
OpenAI has been training on YouTube for years.
Re: It's Time to Stop Taking Sam Altman at His Word
#545Earlier quoted context omitted.
The person you replied to suggests that the analogy of a 3d printer building a part does not hold, as LLM-based coding systems are able to both "print" some code, and decide where and when to do so. I tend to agree with them. What people seem to miss about LLM coding systems, IMO: a) deciding on the capabilities of an LLM to code after a brief browser session with 4o/claude is comparable to waking up a coder in the m…
Right, AI is good and will be good. I agree with you 110%. I quit a well-paying job and have gone a year without salary on this premise :) However, I worry about the premise underlying your reply: a sense that this is somehow incompatible with the viewpoint being discussed. i.e. it's perfectly cromulent to both think LLMs are and will continue to be awesome at coding, even believe they get much better. And also that…
Agree. The way I frame it is the world changes very slowly so even very capable new technologies take time to integrate into it.
Re: It's Time to Stop Taking Sam Altman at His Word
#546Earlier quoted context omitted.
1. Search engine replacement. I'm using it for many queries I asked Google before. I still use Google, but less often. 2. To break procrastination loops. For example I often can't name a particular variable, because I can see few alternatives and I don't like all of them. Nowadays I just ask ChatGPT and often proceed with his opinion. 3. Navigating less known technologies. For example my Python knowledge is limited a…
>> 3. Navigating less known technologies. For example my Python knowledge is limited and I don't really use it often, so I don't want to spend time to better learn it. Respectfully but that's a bit like saying you don't need to learn how to ride a bicycle because you can use a pair of safety wheels. It's an excuse to not learn something, to keep yourself less knowledgeable and skillful than you could really be. Why s…
I actually disagree with this. One of my few really helpful LLM experiences is working with technologies that I rarely touch. nginx configs are probably a good example, or a library I haven't touched in 5 years.
The AI is pretty good at answering "I know this is possible, remind me what it's called or what the syntax is."
For a lot of these the reason I want to look it up is I don't use it enough to build muscle memory. If I did, I'd already have the muscle memory. And in practice, it's just a faster version of looking for examples on stackoverflow.
Re: It's Time to Stop Taking Sam Altman at His Word
#547Earlier quoted context omitted.
If we’re talking about inference costs alone (minimal new training) I think it would cover it. I started doing usage-based pricing through openrouter instead of paying monthly subscriptions, and my modest LLM use costs me about $3/month. Unless you think that the API rates are also priced below cost.
According the New York Times [1], OpenAI told investors that they're costs are increasing as more people use their product, and they are planning to increase the cost of ChatGPT from $20 to $44 over the next five years. That certainly suggests that they're selling inference at a loss right now. [1] https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/27/technology/openai-chatgpt...
My bigger concern isn't the financial cost, it's that the amount represents a degree of energy expenditure. A flat rate might not be advisable and having usage-based pricing may limit energy waste. OTOH I don't know how much energy some of the other recurring things I consume monthly are either.
Maybe we can have a service that's an LLM with shared/cached responses as well as training on its own questions/answers for the easy stuff. Currently my usage is largely as a better search engine as google has gotten so much worse than it ever was, though I imagine I'll find custom things it's useful for as well.
Re: It's Time to Stop Taking Sam Altman at His Word
#548Earlier quoted context omitted.
I don't know anything, but isn't Sam already rich? And, if OpenAI is in a position to capture profits in an expanding AI industry, isn't this the best possible time to lock-in equity for long term gains and trillionaireship? For many people, sadly, one can never be rich enough. My point is, planning for both short term exit, and long term gains, is essentially the same in this particular situation. What a boon! Nice…
For some people the question "how much?" has only one answer – "more."
And this seems to be mostly positive feedback.
Re: It's Time to Stop Taking Sam Altman at His Word
#549Earlier quoted context omitted.
You could be right, but I suspect that you're underestimating the degree to which GPT has become the Kleenex of the LLM space in the consumer zeitgeist. Based on all of the behaviour psychology books I've read, Claude would have to introduce a model that is 10x better and 10x cheaper - or something so radically different that it registers as an entirely new thing - for it to hit the radar outside of the tech world. I…
I don’t think people outside of tech hearing about OpenAI more than Claude is really indicative of much. Ask those same people how much they use an LLM and it’s often rare-to-never. Also, in what way has OpenAI become the Kleenex of the LLM space? Anthropic, Google, Facebook have no gpts, nobody “gpts” something, nobody uses that companies “gpt”. I would say perhaps OpenAI has become the Napster, MySpace, or Facebook…
I am surrounded by people who "ask GPT" things constantly.
That seems like the same thing to me.
Re: It's Time to Stop Taking Sam Altman at His Word
#550Earlier quoted context omitted.
> you're projecting a short-term cash-out mentality I'm a software engineer comfortably drawing a decent-but-not-FAANG paycheck at an established company with every intention of taking the slow-and-steady path to retirement. I'm not projecting, I promise. > to a vision where OpenAI is the 1st and faraway leader in the production of the most valuable 'technology' ever Except that OpenAI isn't a faraway leader. Their b…
Even if you were right in his intentions, can you outline the scenario where Sam is able to make an exit? I don't see how it could happen at current valuation. Who would want to pay $150 bil. for an OpenAI, where Sam is no longer part of it?
> where Sam is no longer part of it?
It can be an "exit" in that it makes Sam extremely wealthy while he still hangs on as CEO.