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EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

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Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

#541

Post by Animats »

sbierwagen wrote: post #528
Animats wrote: post #301

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a big problem. There isn't enough EV manufacturing capacity to meet demand. So, right now, EVs are being treated by auto manufacturers as a premium product with huge markups. Tesla never did ship a $35K car, and Ford's electric F-150 is substantially more expensive than the gas version. Worse, electrics tend to come with all the useless high-end trim options. Price the Jeep Wrangler EV. I wonder if we will ev…

The CEO of Ford, Jim Farley, said that he's expecting a price war among manufacturers to bring entry level EVs down to $25k: https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/ford-ceo-sees-electric-v... He thinks most manufacturers will go LFP, and increasing scale of LFP cell production plus the low material cost will crater the price of the battery pack. He also wants to go to direct online sales, and cut advertising: >Ford, lik…

Now that's good news. EVs ought to be simpler, but it takes a major redesign to achieve the simplicity. Which Ford is doing.

Like BYD' CEO, Ford top management sees lithium iron phosphate as the battery technology for low end vehicles. It's both cheaper and far less prone to battery fires. That chemistry does not have the thermal runaway problem.

Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

#542

Post by katbyte »

lostapathy wrote: post #525
katbyte wrote: post #231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You sure can keep a couple on your vehicle

A couple jerry cans in your vehicle is hardly a "stockpile." And also not a great idea.

It’s enough to get you 50-100% of your range. And it is a great idea on long trips or off-roading (and can sometimes be required)

Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

#543

Post by caycep »

KptMarchewa wrote: post #367
caycep wrote: post #243

Earlier quoted context omitted.

that being said, I'm wondering why companies don't double down on the BMW i3 model vs. the tesla X/Y/big SUV model? The i3 is 3000 lbs or less, and when it was discontinued, it had a bigger battery pack, and plenty of range and room for a family. In my mind, it's ideal...and it wasn't like there wasn't a market for it, as demand apparently was growing right up until end of production I otherwise agree that American c…

i3 is one of the vehicles that designers thought end user is a "eco freak" vs "normal person". It's pleasant to drive, but extremely ugly.

I was actually talking to a Volvo designer at a talk here - I am a huge Polestar One/Volvo Concept Coupe/P1800 design fan and wanted to ask him about continuing that line of design. his point was, that body shape, the classical "beautiful" profile - long hood, cabin all the way back, was really that way in order to accommodate large V8/V10 racing engines, large transmissions, etc. With EV's, no need to accommodate such things, and they could better economize the use of space.

When the i3 first came out, I would be inclined to agree with you - it's the opposite of the E9 or the E46. But the late-generation models have been growing on me, once the context for which they were designed became more clear.

The i3 interior is fantastic, though

Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

#544

Post by caycep »

Hamuko wrote: post #256
caycep wrote: post #243

Earlier quoted context omitted.

that being said, I'm wondering why companies don't double down on the BMW i3 model vs. the tesla X/Y/big SUV model? The i3 is 3000 lbs or less, and when it was discontinued, it had a bigger battery pack, and plenty of range and room for a family. In my mind, it's ideal...and it wasn't like there wasn't a market for it, as demand apparently was growing right up until end of production I otherwise agree that American c…

> The i3 is 3000 lbs or less, and when it was discontinued, it had a bigger battery pack Wikipedia says that the i3 had at best a 42 kWh battery pack. The smallest battery that Tesla will ship you inside a car these days is 60 kWh (Model 3 Standard Range).

I think that was the point of a recent article - Niedermayer, I think - most of the driving I do is commuting, and I don't really need more than the 150 mile range that 42 kWh pack gives you...

The flip side is the smallest Tesla is 3700 lbs or so, vs i3 is a hair under 3000

Technologies evolve, though, so I feel like the next (potential) revolution is to use a light CFRP chassis like the i3 w/ next gen batteries.

Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

#545

Post by natch »

shashurup wrote: post #533
natch wrote: post #353

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Solar, wind, carbon burning, nuclear, hydro… a mix. Petro fuel burning won't go away, it will just be a smaller part of the mix. And there's plenty of capacity at night. And there are batteries, which we can charge with for example solar in the daytime, and then use at night. Rooftop solar is great because it's near the point of use. All the people wringing their hands about the grid can rest easy, it will be fine. S…

According to [1] in 2019 61% of the world electricity is produced burning coal and oil. I don't see a reason why this proportion would change to fullfill EV caused demand increase. I'm afraid that even worse - sweeping demand increase will be fullfilled the easiest way - burning oil and gas. Hydro and nuclear are slow to build. Solar... I don't know what is wrong with it but taking into account that it is a lot cheap…

> I don't see a reason why this proportion would change

ok, but others do.

The current landscape is just that, current. We can build new stuff. I agree there are challenges with speed and scale though. I don’t think they are completely insurmountable.

Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

#546

Post by DennisP »

s0rce wrote: post #506
sandworm101 wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> If you don't mind a super-aerodynamic lightweight three-wheeler In other words: not a car. No crash protection. Three-wheeled "cars" are simply an excuse to avoid various safety rules. They are essentially enclosed motorcycles, to the extent that in some jurisdictions you may need a motorcycle license/helmet to drive them.

Maybe ok if everyone drove them, I'd seriously consider it for my sunny commute in Nevada and parking all day outside in the desert. Unfortunately, everyone else is driving a massively oversized pickup truck and I'd prefer not to be obliterated.

Yeah that's the only reason I haven't put in a preorder. They're making it as safe as they can but there's only so much you can do.

Back in the 90s I drove a '73 Beetle and a '74 Pinto, and I'm sure it's safer than those. Maybe Aptera's customers will be some of today's 20-somethings.

Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

#547

Post by zizee »

crims0n wrote: post #460
adgjlsfhk1 wrote: post #444

Earlier quoted context omitted.

if you think people don't want them, try to buy one. the main reason that they're only 2.5% of sales is because not enough are being made.

I realize my argument made it seem like I was using the sales data to justify my claim, but that wasn't really what I was going for - my mistake. I am aware of the demand issues, but the question is how far does that scale? The current market for EVs seems to be middle to upper class city-dwellers who own their own homes and commute less than an hour each day. That is certainly a sizable market that will scale to a p…

For some reason your making the assumption EVs and related infrastructure are not improving all the time. ICE cars are not improving very much, where EVs are getting cheaper each year. Eventually there will be cheaper options, and a 2nd hand market. Eventually there will be heavy duty trucks. Eventually there will be options with generous seating capacity.

Yes there are some people that love the roar of a v7, some people think the choice is political. But the vast majority don't give a shit. It will come down to function and economics. Eventually EVs will beat out ICEs in more an more usecases per $ spent, and then many of the people holding out for ideological reasons will switch because they're friends and family are all driving them.

There will eventually be a tipping point where gas stations start shutting down because of EV becoming a significant part of the market, which I think will start a feedback loop. Gas stations that survive on slim margins will be uneconomical with 20% EV adoption, will either shut down or raise prices. This will make it worse to own an ICE for more people, that will switch to EVs. Then more stations are out under pressure, rinse and repeat.

Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

#548

Post by erik_seaberg »

timbit42 wrote: post #471
erik_seaberg wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The price difference needs to include owning a house vs. renting an apartment.

Make an offer to your landlord to pay for a charger installation for your parking spot. Eventually EVs will be so common that landlords will be falling over themselves to get chargers installed so they aren't pariahs.

I don’t think renters are going to start buying EVs until a large majority of rentals have reserved charging and parking somewhere nearby. If landlords wait to see demand, it won’t appear.

Replacing street parking is going to be a bigger problem.

Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

#549

Post by koheripbal »

rootusrootus wrote: post #516
koheripbal wrote: post #467

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This doesn't take into account the cost of replacing the battery when it degrades over time, and the cost of the much more limited range, and the cost of a much much longer fueling time.

It doesn't account for replacing the engine on the ICE car either, which has about the same schedule as an EV battery. I spent 5-10 minutes of my life every week keeping my last ICE vehicle fueled. I spend 15 seconds a day keeping my EV topped off. I've saved so much time not having to go to the gas station that I still come out waaaaay ahead even if I have to stop for 20-30 minutes to recharge on my road trip.

ICE lifespan lasts decades longer than an EV battery with zero degradation on range. I'm still driving my 1992 vehicle today. Your assumption is just wrong.

Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

#550

Post by erik_seaberg »

01100011 wrote: post #263
JKCalhoun wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Strikes me as odd that electrics are not cheaper than internal combustion. I guess it's the batteries, huh?

Batteries and lots of copper and aluminum. Steel is cheap. You also have better economy of scale in IC vehicles for now. I feel like we're dismissing other hydrocarbons too early. When I was a kid, people had propane or methane cars which were basically converted gasoline cars. Sure, not anywhere near as efficient but combined with hybrid tech for regenerative braking you likely have a more efficient car overall(nat…

I used to drive airport shuttles that ran on CNG. I think the airport wanted to lower emissions on site. Worked fine, except that the county only had two stations with CNG pumps. They kept a couple of regular vans that could stop for gasoline on longer trips.
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