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What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

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541–550 of 791 posts

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#541

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's been true literally since written records of conflict have been kept. Look at the Punic Wars vs. the Peloponnesian War for example. Look at the Japanese in the Warring States vs. Japanese in China in the 1930s. Even in European history it is true. Compare the attitudes of the English towards the Germans in WWI vs in WWII. (Edit: or as a sibling comment notes, the behavior of the Germans on the different fronts).…

>Look at the Punic Wars vs. the Peloponnesian War for example Not sure how this supports your thesis. Are you trying to say that the punic wars was more devastating/brutal than the Peloponnesian because the first had people of different races fighting while the second had only Greeks fighting amongst themselves ? there are several problems with this : - We have no estimates of the casualties on both sides of both con…

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Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#542
post #42

I believe they were working under the assumption it would be a walk in the park, once the central government was captured or killed. To strengthen this assumption here's a canned article which was likely meant to be published had things gone according to plan, but pulled, since they hadn't. https://web.archive.org/web/20220226224717/https://ria.ru/20... RIA is a state owned news agency. Why precisely they thought the…

> Why precisely they thought they'd meet no serious opposition...

Isn't that what everybody thought?

Didn't NATO also think that? Isn't that why the US and friends categorically refused boots on the ground, no-fly-zones or even just strategic ambiguity?

Or maybe, things are just slow, because they are slow..

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#543

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It was, however, nothing close to the levels of support Ukraine is getting. And those insurgencies faced a vastly superior US armed forces.

Those American forces also had vastly longer supply lines to sustain. What the Russians lack in financing and capability, the make up a lot with proximate borders, time zones, etc.

There are plenty of sayings along the lines of "America doesn't have military, they have a logistics corporation" Supplying enough "X" is rarely an issue for the USM except in the cases where it is something new they didn't realize they needed.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#544
post #412

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The "stumped" is not actually in the article. FTA: the issue is that Russia made a huge show of force at the start of the invasion but has apparently held back from actually using much of it (by air or ground). This war could have been over the day it started if Russia had used maximal force, and the conservative approach their actually using maximizes risks and casualties. And that's what has the experts confused: t…

> why Russia is going with this strategy Because this isn't the intended strategy, but rather then resultant strategy. Modern Russia seems to suffer from the same weaknesses as the USSR: garbage-in, garbage-out. If you staff an entire bureaucracy (including your military command structure) with Yes-Men, you get "Yes" responses. When the question is "Are we prepared for the invasion?" When the question is "Will we be…

Yes, that appears to be the growing consensus among experts.

But the reason for the "confusion" (the "stumped" in the title) is that Russia has not historically operated this way under Putin (though it did operate this way under his predecessor). Basically, nothing is happening the way it has happened before (under Putin), and this appears to be a "new normal" (under Putin).

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#545

Many conflicting viewpoints here. Sure, there's been less of a push from Russia than everyone expected, but it's not like Ukraine controls the sky either. Are Ukranians really still flying? If that was the case, the mentioned 40-mile convoy heading to Kiev would have been hit by now, no? Russians driving vehicles bumper to bumper shows VERY strong confidence that they own the sky, so things might not be as rosy for U…

Right, I'd love to hear a good explanation for why they're not attacking a 40-mile long convoy on a road. At least bomb the front of the convoy, wtf. That Russia sent in such a rich sitting duck target and it's not being attacked suggests they have air superiority and we're getting bad information.

i'm no military tactician but if it's not getting closer and not able to hit you then it's not a threat. they probably have bigger problems than a stalled convoy.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#546

Many conflicting viewpoints here. Sure, there's been less of a push from Russia than everyone expected, but it's not like Ukraine controls the sky either. Are Ukranians really still flying? If that was the case, the mentioned 40-mile convoy heading to Kiev would have been hit by now, no? Russians driving vehicles bumper to bumper shows VERY strong confidence that they own the sky, so things might not be as rosy for U…

"Earlier today, the enemy occupying force in Ukraine mercilessly attacked our peacekeeping force as it peacefully advanced towards Kyiv with humanitarian aid.

President Putin has authorized the use of overwhelming force to evict the occupiers and avenge our fallen servicemen. President-in-Exile leads the official people's government from Belarus and blah...blah..."

There is nothing at all that has stopped the military from attacking such an obvious target, but it would hurt Ukraine's plea as a victim seeking peace from the RUS citizens and provide truthiness to Putin's internal propaganda.

Better to let this encirclement occur, the thaw hits, RUS armor stuck with harrassed supply lines and the hell of urban combat against a determined populace. Meanwhile, your western flank is feeding advanced weaponry into the remaining UKR units and your economy has imploded.

Take all the corruption, assumptions RUS had, etc. and it all still looks like a scenario from some HS history class to help teach about Caesar or Stalingrad.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#547
post #353

Earlier quoted context omitted.

suzerainty You can't just lob a hundred dollar word out like that! I spent several moments trying to figure out what your typo was before allowing the possibility that you didn't have one. a relationship in which one state or other polity controls the foreign policy and relations of a tributary state, while allowing the tributary state to have internal autonomy

Empires, puppet states, colonies, and territories are mostly pre 20th century relics today, and we've lost the vocabulary for talking about them. Pundits still throw those words around, but mostly as exaggerations. This is a 19th century war with 21st century weapons. It's from the bad old days when various European states built empires - the Austro-Hungarian Empire, the British Empire, Imperial Russia, and the Imper…

> This is a 19th century war with 21st century weapons.

Very little of the weapons involved are actually 21st century. Most are 20th century.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#548

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can't help but think Putin's guise of "denazifying Ukraine" was a poorly understood attempt to gain some favor with those in Western societies that see themselves as fighting fascism and right-wing extremism. As a westerner, I've definitely noticed my more left leaning friends agree with actions that seemingly contradict classical liberal ideals (free speech, free association) as long as such actions seem to be in…

Russians don't know what Nazis are. They just know some people called Nazis attacked them in WW2, so denazifying = stopping enemies of Russia. It isn't talking about the Azov battalion or anything; that's an uncalled-for steelmanning because everyone is free associating things they read about in the news.

Russians know. As do Ukrainians.

My granma told me what was happening in Khmelnik (West Ukraine) at times of German occupation.

50% of the city was Jewish. And almost zero left in first few months. And that was done primarily by locals from UPA - not Germans. You can hide from a German but cannot hide from your neighbor.

UPA and Stepan Bandera[1] is a hero of Ukraine now - it is a street in Kiev named after him. Despite the fact that Poland and Russia condemn him as a war criminal - for massacres of Polish and Jewish civilians.

And now Ukrainian refugees are coming to Poland... That will not be that easy ... Liberal values are quite thin as practice shows.

I am quite surprised that nice Jew guy mr. Zelensky didn't do anything about it. Probably because he is not who rule there.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stepan_Bandera

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#549
post #208

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Could you not imagine the Proud Boys being allowed to serve as a unit if Canada seized Montana and Idaho, and the national guard needed resources? (With the assumption that the US had a GDP equivalent to Ukraine's.)

Keep in mind Ukraine is a very poor country being attacked by a much larger, richer, and more powerful country. This would be more comparable to Mexico deputizing the cartels if the US decided to invade.

i think you mean the cartels would deputize the Mexican government if the US decided to invade

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#550
post #490

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Perhaps Russia knowing it's military strategy would be on full display for analysis decided to accept loss of men and/or slower gains for not giving away how its planes would perform?

This is my theory (disclaimer: I have no clue what I’m talking about). They don’t want to show all their cards to the West.

I thought like you but day by day I am more convinced that their cards are visible and insufficient to secure a victory anyway.

Everything from land forces, to the navy, to the air force, to the intelligence, to the propaganda unit is performing poorly.

And the West has exhibited superior intelligence and PR by all means. The Ukrainian army is much better trained and organized than expected (probably some Western help in their training, or just the psychological hardening caused by the conflict from 2014), and the population is 100% hostile to the invasion.

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