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Germany pauses AstraZeneca vaccinations as a 'precaution'

reuters.com

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Re: Germany pauses AstraZeneca vaccinations as a 'precaution'

#541

Post by theptip »

fab1an wrote: post #133

Looks like this may be a bit more relevant than many of the snarky comments would suggest - the relevant German authority on this said that they have seen a unexpected increase in a specific type of blood clotting issue that usually is very rare: https://www.pei.de/DE/newsroom/hp-meldungen/2021/210315-voru...

Notably, from the PDF linked there:

> Birth control pills can also cause thrombosis. So why is there all the fuss about the COVID-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca? It is true that for birth control pills thromboses, even with fatal outcome, are known as a very rare side effect. They are listed in the Summary of Product Characteristics (SmPC). The birth control pill is available only on prescription. Every woman must be informed of this risk by the prescribing physician. For the COVID-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca, there is currently a suspected very rare side effect of sinus vein thrombosis with accompanying platelet deficiency, sometimes fatal. It is not listed in the SmPC. The consideration of whether the vaccine can continue to be used even though it may cause this very rare side effect (if necessary, after this risk has been added to the SmPC) will be made at the European level by the European Medicines Agency (EMA) and at the national level by politicians. The procedure has been initiated.

Which sounds pretty clearly like bureaucratic CYA instead of an actual cost/benefit analysis that takes into account the excess deaths that are now being caused due to pausing the vaccine rollout.

"This potential side-effect is not listed in the SmPC so we need to pause vaccinations", ignoring the fact that hundreds of people are dying every day in Germany (https://www.google.com/search?q=germany+covid+case+fatality+...).

Re: Germany pauses AstraZeneca vaccinations as a 'precaution'

#542

Post by raducu »

qbasic_forever wrote: post #293
HenryBemis wrote: post #279

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>can blunt your immune system response (Not a doctor) From listening to the "Faucis" of various countries (incuding the original): I believe that the vaccine is not a watered down virus , so technically you are not making yourself vulnerable/more sensitive to the virus. It is suppsed to 'teach' your body how to build the defence. Only the Chinese virus is a 'watered down' version of the virus. All the others (includi…

What in the world are you going on about? Drugs can make your immune system's response less severe--this is straight medical fact, look up diphenhydramine (benadryl) or anti-histamines in general. No where did I say any of these vaccines are 'live' or even attenuated coronavirus. It is 100% impossible to get infected with covid-19 from any of the vaccines. However it is possible to take a drug which lowers your immun…

I'm going to take a very low dosage of aspirin -- 75mg per day, this dosage has anti-cloting properties, the anti-inflammatory properties start at higher dosages.

Re: Germany pauses AstraZeneca vaccinations as a 'precaution'

#543

Post by raducu »

_ph_ wrote: post #355
raducu wrote: post #190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm set to take the oxford d vaccine, but I could also take the pfizer vaccine. I've had elevated blood markers for clotting during covid-19, and now I hear of this. I'm thinking of taking 75 mg aspirin, before and after the vaccine. On the other hand, the issue is the patients have low platelet count and I understand that this is the way aspirin reduces blod clotting. So, do these patients have low platelet count be…

According to a high-ranking doctor on the German TV today, the observed effect isn't normal thrombosis but a brain related thromboses, where prophylactic treatment is not possible.

Really curious, why is prophylactic treatment not possible?

Does aspirine not cross the blood brain barrier?

Re: Germany pauses AstraZeneca vaccinations as a 'precaution'

#544

Post by petre »

theptip wrote: post #539
petre wrote: post #433

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's 0.0015% compared to 4%, so at least a 2.6·1e3 difference. Given less than 0.004% chance to catch the disease in my city, the odds are 10 fold in favour of not getting vaccinated. I'll still get vaccinated regardless, because I am sick and tired of this pandemic and want to go on vacation instead of into an another lockdown this year.

Where are you getting 4% from? It looks to me like like 3 deaths out of 1.2m vaccinated. (I’m looking at the linked PDF https://www.pei.de/SharedDocs/Downloads/EN/newsroom-en/hp-ne... )

The 4% deaths are from covid-19, not from the vaccines. 3.4% is the WHO global estimate if you want to be more precise and 2.5% in my country as of today.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-...

The 0.0015% is the known rate of blood clots from all the AZ doses on the continent according to what the GP has reported and RFI has confirmed the same numbers today (30 cases in 5M doses but it's not clear how many have died and why).

So 0.4 death rate times 0.004 chance to get covid in my area equals 0.0016 chanches to get covid and die which is one point higher than the chances of getting blood clots from the vaccine. Yeah, I botched the last product, so it's actually about the same risk figure, but the benefits of getting vaccinated outweigh the risks and the allegedly faulty vaccine batch has already been halted anyway. I have acquaintances that were vaccinated with the allgedly faulty batch AVB2856 before it was halted and they're doing just fine.

Re: Germany pauses AstraZeneca vaccinations as a 'precaution'

#545

Post by theptip »

Worth noting that the EMA says (in bold):

> the benefits of the AstraZeneca vaccine in preventing COVID-19, with its associated risk of hospitalisation and death, outweigh the risks of side effects.

https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/news/emas-safety-committee-cont...

Re: Germany pauses AstraZeneca vaccinations as a 'precaution'

#546

Post by mynameisvlad »

Izkata wrote: post #442
cmrdporcupine wrote: post #416

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not a surprise that an airborne virus spreads more during the time of year when people are spending more time indoors with their windows closed. Same reason it was rampant in the US subtropical south during last summer, when it was uncomfortably hot and people stayed inside where there's AC.

This is what seasonality means. It doesn't mean "it'll be eliminated next season". They're referring more to, success can be claimed for lockdowns/etc whether or not they had an effect, simply by waiting until the natural seasonality causes a drop in cases.

I mean, they explicitly said

> where natural seasonality will take care of COVID

I don't read that as your interpretation at all. It very much sounds like they are saying the spring/summer season will kill COVID.

Re: Germany pauses AstraZeneca vaccinations as a 'precaution'

#547

Post by leereeves »

mynameisvlad wrote: post #546
Izkata wrote: post #442

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is what seasonality means. It doesn't mean "it'll be eliminated next season". They're referring more to, success can be claimed for lockdowns/etc whether or not they had an effect, simply by waiting until the natural seasonality causes a drop in cases.

I mean, they explicitly said > where natural seasonality will take care of COVID I don't read that as your interpretation at all. It very much sounds like they are saying the spring/summer season will kill COVID.

There are several people in the conversation. Personally, I meant what Izkata said, and I don't think anything will completely kill COVID.

Re: Germany pauses AstraZeneca vaccinations as a 'precaution'

#548

Post by theptip »

petre wrote: post #544
theptip wrote: post #539

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where are you getting 4% from? It looks to me like like 3 deaths out of 1.2m vaccinated. (I’m looking at the linked PDF https://www.pei.de/SharedDocs/Downloads/EN/newsroom-en/hp-ne... )

The 4% deaths are from covid-19, not from the vaccines. 3.4% is the WHO global estimate if you want to be more precise and 2.5% in my country as of today. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-... The 0.0015% is the known rate of blood clots from all the AZ doses on the continent according to what the GP has reported and RFI has confirmed the same numbers today (30 cases in 5M doses but it's not…

Got you, thanks. (Side-note, I wish it were easier to transmit simple models like this as part of discourse).

The 0.0015 risk of death seems high. Where are you getting that from?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-german... gives "The EMA has said that as of March 10, a total of 30 cases of blood clotting had been reported among close to 5 million people vaccinated with the AstraZeneca shot in the European Economic Area, which links 30 European countries."

But if you want to take the German numbers, 3 deaths out of 1.6m vaccines:

3/1,600,000 = 0.000001875 (In percent, 0.0001875%) which is 0.125 of your figure.

And the OP gives a base rate of "two to five cases per 1 million individuals per year" for context; we need to subtract out the base rate from the observed deaths too (because obviously the base rate of this condition occurs regardless of whether you take the vaccine).

[edit: percent conversion typo]

Re: Germany pauses AstraZeneca vaccinations as a 'precaution'

#549

Post by DanBC »

Frypa wrote: post #496
alecco wrote: post #294

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you saying the NHS is complicit in hiding deaths due to vaccines?

Where did I mention the NHS? I'm referring to the government downplaying the impact of the vaccine. Which could be true, because millions of people got the vaccine and only a few had the clot issue. But I would rather believe the german version on this.

Why do you believe there's a link to blood-clotting, and not to, say, broken dishwashers?

People (especially on HN) like to say "correlation doesn't equal causation", but there isn't even a correlation here. There are not higher rates of blood clots.

Re: Germany pauses AstraZeneca vaccinations as a 'precaution'

#550

Post by GuB-42 »

overboard2 wrote: post #426
blueblimp wrote: post #403

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No matter who you are, vaccination is safer than catching covid. The vaccines are designed and tested for safety; covid gains evolutionary fitness from making you sick. As a result, the risks from vaccination are orders of magnitude lower, no matter what the covid risk is. (Edit: Deleted second paragraph that wasn’t clearly worded.)

Covid evolves to spread itself more effectively. The fewer symptoms it causes, the better it can spread.

It is somewhat true, but the virus doesn't know that, and there isn't a strong evolutionary pressure to make covid less lethal.

Covid is transmitted mostly during its mild phase, it only becomes severe a week later, if you are unlucky. If you are lucky, you clear off the infection and gain relatively strong immunity. For the virus, both scenarios are similar.

The only thing is that if it was just a cold, we wouldn't bother with preventive measures and the virus would spread more easily. However, when both the lethal and nonlethal variants are present, the nonlethal variant doesn't have an advantage since we treat everyone the same way, so it is unlikely for the nonlethal variant to take over on its own. At least not on a short timescale.

The solution is to create our own nonlethal variant, also known as a vaccine. Well, vaccines don't spread, I guess we could make a vaccine that spreads but "what could possibly go wrong..."

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