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Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms

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Re: Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms

#541

Post by blaser-waffle »

pnw_hazor wrote: post #494
busyant wrote: post #267

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> These stories that come out of the woodwork every time tenants are mentioned are why I’ll never be a landlord. My wife and I own a number of (8) rental properties. My wife manages them and we rarely have problems with tenants. I will tell you what I think is the secret. My wife figuratively crawls up the ass of all prospective tenants. She needs to see credit history, pay stubs, and proof of punctual rent payments…

Here is "The Secret" from my wife's friend who keeps trying to talk us into buying rental properties. Especially applicable for places like Seattle that have a lot of eviction restrictions and tenant selection restrictions. For a multi-room home: 1) Find a foreign female student to act as the primary tenant. It is easy to target rental availability to this market. 2) Let her find additional roommates. Foreign female…

foreign student seems risky as hell, man. All they have to do is walk and you're left holding the bag. Further more they're not tuned to what is "normal" for the area.

In uni one of the Chinese master's students fell asleep with a hotplate turned on and burned down the apartment a couple down from us. Students gonna student.

Re: Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms

#542

Post by diogenescynic »

MiroF wrote: post #540
diogenescynic wrote: post #536

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why don’t you google it instead of calling me an idiot. It’s not even slightly controversial, so all you jumping on this attack just reveal your actual ignorance on the subject. QE has led to deflation in Japan, not inflation. Try reading this and you’ll get it: https://www.economyandmarkets.com/economy/central-banks/japa...

> It’s not even slightly controversial, so all you jumping on this attack just reveal your actual ignorance on the subject. It's not even slightly controversial that QE causes deflation? That's just laughable, honestly. Look, mainstream economists disagree with you [0]. QE usually occurs in the context of a real shock that induces deflationary pressure, but the fact that QE and deflation sometimes co-occur is correla…

Too bad it never happened in Japan where we have a real world example we can actually compare it to. I think you’re in over your head on this.

Re: Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms

#543

Post by bluntfang »

cft wrote: post #26
bshipp wrote: post #17

This is just the start. Landlords would be smart to work with tenants to share some of the loss and renegotiate temporary adjustments to keep at least some revenue coming in because the heady days of high demand for rental units is likely behind us for a while. It'll be worse in downtown areas. I've heard from multiple firms that are looking at downsizing their expensive office space and continuing to allow employees…

In California for example, due to state-wide rent control, it's very dangerous for a landlord to lower rents. I would rather offer 6 months free rent than lock into permanent nonadjustable lower rent situation.

excuse me, but dangerous for who exactly? You mean your future returns on investments will be lower on your rental property? How exactly is that dangerous? Is someone's life in danger? If anything, lower rents allow more people to afford housing, making it less dangerous.

Let me guess, you have huge problem with the homeless situation, but are unwilling to consider lowering rents? Is that right?

Re: Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms

#544

Post by diogenescynic »

MiroF wrote: post #300
brobinson wrote: post #217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Essentially, the mechanism of QE is that the Federal Reserve and other central banks are buying government bonds - but not directly from the Treasury Department. They’re buying government bonds from banks and paying for them with central bank reserves. Crucially, these cash reserves are held by the central bank and pay an interest rate just as the treasury bonds did. In a sense the Federal Reserve swapped ten year t…

> The money never entered the economy - it is being held in a vault at the central bank (or more realistically is just a number in a spreadsheet) This is just incoherent. The money does enter the economy because now the banks can lend out money without their cash reserves dipping too low. The reason that inflation is not spiking is because of the actual reason that the Fed reserve felt that it was necessary to engage…

>Japan’s QE has been about four times that of the U.S. For the U.S. to do what Japan has done, the Fed would have to QUADRUPLE down and print $12 trillion in addition to the $4 trillion it has already printed.

>Try proposing that after the last round of QE finally fails.

>But even if the Fed tried to print a fraction of that, it still wouldn’t result in hyperinflation.

>Europe has printed almost twice as much as what we have, when compared to GDP, and it has very low inflation and lower growth than the U.S. That’s because our workforce and demographics are flattening, but not declining, as is the trend in Europe and Japan.

https://www.economyandmarkets.com/economy/central-banks/japa...

QE is deflationary.

Re: Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms

#545

Post by taylodl »

koheripbal wrote: post #530
jedberg wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I love my section 8 tenants. Same here, they take good care of the place and the government doesn't miss rent payments. Some counties even provide free legal help for landlords if their section 8 tenants do something bad. It's actually pretty low risk. The main downside is the increased overhead of paperwork and inspections. The government wants to (rightly) make sure you aren't a slumlord so they do a lot more inspe…

I'm on the other side of the spectrum. I converted all my units to luxury units, and have had far far fewer tenant problems after the renovations and rate increases. High paid tenants seldom miss payment - I've setup automatic EFT withdrawal from their accounts, so I don't even need to process checks, and they aren't really impacted by the rise in unemployment right now - most just work from home. I think the bitter…

My wife discovered the same thing. You either want to manage section 8 housing or you want higher-income housing. Once you know the system and the case workers it's easy to deal with bad section 8 tenants. It takes a while to learn the ropes, though. The higher-end tenants are generally easy to work with as you mention. The problem now is that's where all the property managers are wanting to go!

Re: Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms

#546

Post by MiroF »

diogenescynic wrote: post #539
MiroF wrote: post #538

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your source does not say that QE was deflationary in Japan - just that in the context of a real economic shock to Japan's economy, the central bank's stance was contractionary. Indeed, they argue that more QE would have combatted the deflation. Why not read the sources you link?

You read all 22 pages already? Bullshit. First pages mentions deflation... if tripling their money supply did nott lead to hyperinflation what will? Page two: >market peaked in the July􏰑September quarter of 1991. Those peaks were followed by steep declines in asset prices, culminating in contractions of real GDP in several quarters of 1992 and 1993 and deflation as measured by the CPI from July 199 My point was to f…

> if tripling their money supply did t lead to hyperinflation what will

If you read your own linked paper, you will see that this is not what occurred - monetary base was substantially increased, sure, but that is not synonymous with money supply and there was no corresponding increase in M2.

To your second link, which is not from a reputable source, your CATO paper directly contradicts claims of "huge" QE. It was actually smaller than the prior effort:

> Throughout his tenure, Shirakawa was a reluctant expansionist, frequently making speeches to the effect that QE alone would never succeed in reviving the Japanese economy. Originally, he had intended that the QE program would be completed by the end of 2011, but with the CPI still falling in November and December 2011, operations were extended through 2012 and 2013. Compared to QE1 in 2001–06, Shirakawa’s QE2 was a much weaker program

Here, again, is the paper you linked saying that QE policies combat deflation:

> For better or worse, the Federal Reserve did not counteract the downturn in money growth in 1931–33, either with security purchases or money creation, and thereby exacerbated the depth of the recession, the level of unemployment, and duration of the deflation.

Just because the paper "mentions deflation" doesn't mean that QE "causes" deflation - and the paper is pretty clear that this is not the case. Japan's QE was ineffective, sure, (for a variety of reasons) but in the absence of QE the deflation would have been worse.

Also, I will note that right wing sources are exactly who I would not expect to agree with me. They are hawkish on QE.

Re: Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms

#547

Post by csunbird »

opportune wrote: post #501
csunbird wrote: post #486

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a problem for our generation actually. The two generations before us became rent seekers about everything and from what I can see %90 of current population is unable to acquire significant income to buy anything meaningful. We are going back to feudal times, with minority of population owning everything and others paying for the privilege of using them.

I think a big part of this is that suburbanization created a tremendous amount of (government subsidized via infrastructure) value that in many metro regions has all been scooped up now. There’s not much left to build outward, no arbitrage, and not enough political will to fix it (or: too many people benefitting from capturing the value). And in combination globalization/corporatization has put a lot of high paying j…

I wonder if the current behavior can change if majority of companies start allowing remote work for a wide area of job families. I think we are already starting to see this in Bay Area with the introduction of remote work in leading tech companies.

Re: Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms

#548

Post by MiroF »

diogenescynic wrote: post #542
MiroF wrote: post #540

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It’s not even slightly controversial, so all you jumping on this attack just reveal your actual ignorance on the subject. It's not even slightly controversial that QE causes deflation? That's just laughable, honestly. Look, mainstream economists disagree with you [0]. QE usually occurs in the context of a real shock that induces deflationary pressure, but the fact that QE and deflation sometimes co-occur is correla…

Too bad it never happened in Japan where we have a real world example we can actually compare it to. I think you’re in over your head on this.

> I think you’re in over your head on this.

If you can't tease out the difference between correlation and causation, I suspect that you are the one in over your head.

I have experience in academic economics, you clearly, do not.

https://www.themoneyillusion.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/...

Guess when Japan's deflation ended?

Re: Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms

#549

Post by noad »

thephyber wrote: post #165
noad wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Like when Wells Fargo investigated their mortgage department and found no problems, right? Or when Google investigated Andy Rubin and decided he wasn't that bad and protected him for three more years? Why on earth would you ever trust a corporation to police themselves? They always lie, they always fail.

It can't hurt to expect companies to actually troubleshoot their own policies. We don't have to expect that it's the only recourse (eg. government regulation, civil suits, public brand shaming, etc).

I have seen no evidence of any positive outcome from companies policing themselves, only negative results and coverups.

I'm sure there have been a few instances, somewhere, there must be, right? I just don't recall reading or hearing about them in my entire life, ever.

Re: Millions of Americans skipping payments as wave of defaults and evictions looms

#550

Post by sky_rw »

inetknght wrote: post #234
sky_rw wrote: post #227

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Every time I see comments like this, and no direct offense intended, It always strikes me as coming from somebody who has never filed large insurance claims before. Been seeing this so much with riots lately, "oh you have insurance right, why you mad about your business getting destroyed?". If only it was that simple.

The largest insurance claim I've had was for a little over $5k for a vehicle repair after collision while avoiding a pedestrian in the street. I'm not sure if you think that's "large" but it was very painless to do IMO.

I can't think of a better comment to prove my point.
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