Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf] • Hacker News Board

Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]

#541

Post by bfrog » Fri, Apr 03, 2020, 2:25 AM UTC

koheripbal wrote: post #505

apatters wrote: post #458

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the unemployment rate continues to rise at this pace (about 7% every two weeks), it will match the peak during the Great Depression (25%) around the end of April. That's 40 million people who will have no income and likely no health care in the middle of a pandemic. Not sure how to process this information honestly.

You cannot simply extrapolate trends ad infinitum. You have to look at the vulnerable industries, and assume percentage of those jobs will be lost, up to the limit of that industry. ...but certainly, the longer everyone stays home, the more industries will be sucked into the void. Ultimately, we will have no choice but to advise people to go back to their lives, despite the risks. The government does not have the abi…

108m Americans work in the service sector.

Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]

#542

Post by PeterisP » Fri, Apr 03, 2020, 2:43 AM UTC

doh wrote: post #473

PeterisP wrote: post #459

Earlier quoted context omitted.

After this is over (whenever that is) we expect people to resume eating out and traveling. I agree that it's likely that 50% of restaurants and 25% of hotels/spas would become bankrupt and shut down, but that does not mean a 50% / 25% reduction of employment; I would expect most of the bankrupt restaurants and hotels/spas to be immediately replaced with new ones, employing much of the same people and renting much of…

You are of course correct. There will be a bottom and then a recovery. The speed of recovery will depend on how much liquidity will be available in the market. And I believe it’s going to be quite low. You see, all of these business depend on discretionary income and after the shock to the people they will sit on any penny or they will not have it themselves. I believe we will eventually get out of this but my timeli…

I agree that wider inequality is a likely outcome.

There will be people who won't be able to spend anything because the depression drained them absolutely, and there will be people who are accumulating income that they can't spend due to the lockdown, and will have the funds to resume all the postponed vacations with vigor as soon as they can - in the aftermath, tourism will be cheap for those who have discretionary funds for tourism, because many won't, and the service industry will be agressively competing for any income they can get while having a cheap workforce.

Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]

#543

Post by apatters » Fri, Apr 03, 2020, 3:29 AM UTC

koheripbal wrote: post #505

apatters wrote: post #458

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the unemployment rate continues to rise at this pace (about 7% every two weeks), it will match the peak during the Great Depression (25%) around the end of April. That's 40 million people who will have no income and likely no health care in the middle of a pandemic. Not sure how to process this information honestly.

You cannot simply extrapolate trends ad infinitum. You have to look at the vulnerable industries, and assume percentage of those jobs will be lost, up to the limit of that industry. ...but certainly, the longer everyone stays home, the more industries will be sucked into the void. Ultimately, we will have no choice but to advise people to go back to their lives, despite the risks. The government does not have the abi…

You can't extrapolate trends ad infinitum, and I didn't.

I extrapolated them for four weeks.

All we need is four more weeks of what has happened for the last two (and most authorities are saying that the lockdowns will last at least this long), and we're at the peak of the Great Depression, unemployment-wise at least.

Moreover, by assuming constant linear growth, I was being optimistic about the slope of the curve. The second week of jobless claims was worse than the first.

Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]

#544

Post by Izkata » Fri, Apr 03, 2020, 4:10 AM UTC

MiroF wrote: post #296

fock wrote: post #289

Earlier quoted context omitted.

with emphasis on "should". Most people started to argue with the low number of deaths, when there were 5. Now there are at least 10 and about 100 people unaccounted in statistics...

Hm - 10 as of a few weeks or so ago, I doubt we will see any more and certainly not 2-3x more. That 10/800 = 1.2% and the cruise ship skewed older. 100 people entirely unaccounted for would only impact spread rates, not CFR, unless the unaccounted people are more likely to have died than those from the ship writ large. I don't see where people are getting 5% from. 1% is already 10x worse or so than the flu, I don't s…

There was an 11th death Apr 1, and 113 of the 712 are still active, not recovered. Didn't find from a quick search how critical or mild they are, but it is concerning that it's been this long...

Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]

#545

Post by adrianN » Fri, Apr 03, 2020, 5:08 AM UTC

stefano wrote: post #252

adrianN wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It kills 1% if ICU care is available. It kills a lot more if the healthcare system is overwhelmed. Look at Spain or Italy. Case fatality rate is around 10%. Letting it run its course it needs to infect 60-70% of the population before herd immunity kicks in. 1% of 60% of the population of the US is 2 million people. World-wide you're looking at 45 million people for a very optimistic scenario. The numbers could easily…

No one in Italy has ever been denied an ICU bed yet.

I'd like a source for that because it directly contradicts news reports I've seen.

Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]

#546

Post by TeMPOraL » Fri, Apr 03, 2020, 5:28 AM UTC

generalpass wrote: post #533

kazen44 wrote: post #453

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> After the war ended, cooler heads prevailed and all wartime orders were lifted and capital and labor could reform, as it saw fit, and as such, the year immediately following the war produced the greatest annualized economic gains in the history of the country the reason the US was ably to basically jump start it's economy after ww2 was mainly because all of its competitors got either got their industries and cities…

> > After the war ended, cooler heads prevailed and all wartime orders were lifted and capital and labor could reform, as it saw fit, and as such, the year immediately following the war produced the greatest annualized economic gains in the history of the country > the reason the US was ably to basically jump start it's economy after ww2 was mainly because all of its competitors got either got their industries and ci…

> Nations are not competitors. They are trade partners.

Of course nations are competitors. International trade is an unregulated market, every nation competes economically with each other and tries to extract maximally favorable deal for themselves; when negotiations get heated, they get backed up by military strength, and the only reason we don't go to war often is a combination of sanity and MADness.

Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]

#547

Post by s1artibartfast » Fri, Apr 03, 2020, 6:55 AM UTC

7777fps wrote: post #381

s1artibartfast wrote: post #373

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Regarding 3, upper estimates for the 2009 swine flu are north of 500k deaths and the 1918 Spanish flu is 50 million. Flus can be very deadly and the poster obviously did not intend to use the word in a diminutive way. You added that interpretation, knowing it is wrong, and then challenged it.

The whole post was playing down the effects of the current pandemic on society. The whole conclusion was that "a flu won't cause [society to break down]". So yes, the poster was using flu in a diminutive sense. And yes, flu is deadly and a lot worse than a lot of people (who've probably never had flu) realise. But even given that, even recent novel flu strains haven't stressed and shut down the global economy like th…

>The whole conclusion was that "a flu won't cause [society to break down]"

This does not minimize the harm a flu can do, it puts it in perspective. Nuclear bombs going off over LA, London, New York, and Beijing probably would not cause society to break down. That does not mean that does not mean that it wouldn't be terrible, deadly, and disruptive.

When planning for how to prepare and deal with this pandemic, people should not be preparing for some Mad-Max scenario where an assault rifle is their most valuable possession.

Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]

#548

Post by dante_dev » Fri, Apr 03, 2020, 8:48 AM UTC

adrianN wrote: post #545

stefano wrote: post #252

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No one in Italy has ever been denied an ICU bed yet.

I'd like a source for that because it directly contradicts news reports I've seen.

Source is Ministry of Health, data is collected by each Region. Specifically this is the free icu rate per region https://infogram.com/tasso-di-occupazione-posti-letto-1h7k23...

Unfortunately it's live without the per-day history, but you should consider that we're at the peak right now.

Considering the many people downvoting I feel like US news suggest otherwise. Weird!

Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]

#549

Post by TeMPOraL » Fri, Apr 03, 2020, 8:55 AM UTC

s1artibartfast wrote: post #547

7777fps wrote: post #381

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The whole post was playing down the effects of the current pandemic on society. The whole conclusion was that "a flu won't cause [society to break down]". So yes, the poster was using flu in a diminutive sense. And yes, flu is deadly and a lot worse than a lot of people (who've probably never had flu) realise. But even given that, even recent novel flu strains haven't stressed and shut down the global economy like th…

>The whole conclusion was that "a flu won't cause [society to break down]" This does not minimize the harm a flu can do, it puts it in perspective. Nuclear bombs going off over LA, London, New York, and Beijing probably would not cause society to break down. That does not mean that does not mean that it wouldn't be terrible, deadly, and disruptive. When planning for how to prepare and deal with this pandemic, people…

While the death toll remains smaller, at this point the global consequences of this pandemic are worse than LA, London, New York and Beijing getting glassed (assuming this hypothetical scenario was some kind of a terror attack, and not the first strike in WWIII).

Re: Additional 6.6M File for Initial Unemployment Benefits [pdf]

#550

Post by generalpass » Fri, Apr 03, 2020, 11:46 AM UTC

TeMPOraL wrote: post #546

generalpass wrote: post #533

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> > After the war ended, cooler heads prevailed and all wartime orders were lifted and capital and labor could reform, as it saw fit, and as such, the year immediately following the war produced the greatest annualized economic gains in the history of the country > the reason the US was ably to basically jump start it's economy after ww2 was mainly because all of its competitors got either got their industries and ci…

> Nations are not competitors. They are trade partners. Of course nations are competitors. International trade is an unregulated market, every nation competes economically with each other and tries to extract maximally favorable deal for themselves; when negotiations get heated, they get backed up by military strength, and the only reason we don't go to war often is a combination of sanity and MADness.

> > Nations are not competitors. They are trade partners.

> Of course nations are competitors. International trade is an unregulated market, every nation competes economically with each other and tries to extract maximally favorable deal for themselves; when negotiations get heated, they get backed up by military strength, and the only reason we don't go to war often is a combination of sanity and MADness.

What does this have to do with post-WWII economic recovery in the U.S.?