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Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

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Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#541

Post by ep103 »

bduerst wrote: post #513
kyralis wrote: post #363

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They're not stupid, for the most part. They just have a different set of priorities. Many of the individuals supporting the trade war and tariffs know that it's causing them problems, but as far as they're concerned it's worth it to stop China from "screwing them over" or "taking advantage of them". This is not, in fact, an unusual thing- people are are frequently willing to take some personal pain to punish what the…

"Having a different set of priorities" is just another way of saying someone is stupid or irrational. This base is supporting someone who is not acting in their best interests, because yes, their best interests are not a priority. There's even a term for this in economics, called Animosity , which leads to economic imbalance: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_discrimination#Animos...

There's also a term for it, called Reciprocal altruism, which is in many ways, the basis and foundation of human society.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#542

Post by shhshahassa »

steelframe wrote: post #155
datpuz wrote: post #141

I asked this in a similar thread a couple of weeks ago, but I feel like the sentiment is a lot more pessimistic today than it was then. Anyway, I've been holding way too much cash for the last two years in anticipation of a recession. Everyone was telling me that trying to time the market is a bad idea and that I should just invest and forget about it, but given the current signals, might it be a good idea for me to…

I'm sorry to hear that you missed out on the market growth over the past two years. I am prepared to "lose" nearly 7 figures of net worth in the near future. But that's the "cost" I'm willing to incur so that I am able to stay in the markets for the long run.

You being able to lose 7 figures means you are loaded... I don't think any advice you have is applicable to the majority of people.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#543

Post by CamperBob2 »

SkyBelow wrote: post #234
tempguy9999 wrote: post #225

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nicely put, but a real drunken master doesn't get repeatedly decked. Look at trump's financial record, that should have been quite enough (6 bankruptcies was it?) Those who were fooled, were fooled because they chose to be.

Why should the number of bankruptcies matter if the person is still rich? It shows that they are using it as a tool, which might inform us we need to consider how bankruptcies work, but that doesn't make someone incompetent. If you want to see someone who is incompetent with money, look at lottery winners who within 5 years end up worse than before they won.

Why should the number of bankruptcies matter if the person is still rich?

Because money laundering is illegal?

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#544

Post by WorldMaker »

war1025 wrote: post #517
walshemj wrote: post #505

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also the inertia caused by having 52 states all with different laws probably has made for more of an impact.

52? When did we get two more?

Puerto Rico and the District of Columbia, perhaps? (Arguably both should have better seats at the table.)

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#545

Post by 15155 »

mwfunk wrote: post #262
skrowl wrote: post #229

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He made billions of dollars in real estate and other industries, then when on to become POTUS. HOW CAN ONE MAN BE SO INCOMPETENT!?!

WRT making billions of dollars, clearly he didn't. WRT getting elected, he got 3mil fewer votes than his opponent, so you can thank the dysfunction of the EC. WRT to the votes he did get, it's pretty obvious- people dumber than he is, who are apparently blind to seeing his completely obvious con artist act and voting for him, that's how. By completely obvious I mean, the-sky-is-blue, 1+1=2 obvious. That's how obvious…

> people dumber than he is, who are apparently blind to seeing his completely obvious con artist act and voting for him, that's how.

Or, you know, people who didn't want to see Supreme Court seats go to the extreme left for the rest of their lives.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#546

Post by Fomite »

dobleboble wrote: post #355
JeremyNT wrote: post #265

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Regardless of the man himself, historically the "deep state" (for lack of a better phrase) has so much inertia that radical changes (even if desired) by the White House end up moderated. I think it's more correct to say that people are realizing that the old order under the president is gradually eroding and its moderating effects are weakening, which adds compounding risks (directly in the trade war stuff but also h…

"federal government" is probably a better term than "deep state" unless you're intentionally trying to be inflammatory...

Or "civil service"

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#547

Post by xster »

tlogan wrote: post #116
throwaway5752 wrote: post #109

Everyone serious knew that a trade war would set a recession in motion, and that it would be a trade war the US would lose because of the directionality of the trade. The thought has always been that the president was using a high leverage negotiating strategy (see https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/for-trump-diplomacy... , for example) to extract maximal concessions from PRC. But in the end, most of the people…

And things will be worse because China is also heading into recession. You know, you need sell all these products to somebody... And when US consumer stops buying new iPhones (or what ever) combined with recession then situation is going be really really tough. So this will be worse that 2008. Much worse. Back in 2008, China was growing and helping to ease the recession. I do not think China's economy will grow durin…

I get your general sentiment. I'm just not sure why everyone keeps using the iPhone example. China's value-add part in the iPhone building process is about 1%. Having iPhone built with China's manufacturing efficiency is a lot more about Apple's bottom line (as demonstrated by its ability to lobby Trump to delay the tariffs until after the holiday sales) than China.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#548

Post by vinay427 »

carlmr wrote: post #525
vinay427 wrote: post #445

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The "real" N-word is also similar to or identical to today's equivalents in Germanic languages (e.g. German, Dutch).

At least in German it's not used anymore, since it sounds similar enough to the English version everybody knows.

Right, sorry, I live in a German-speaking place so I'm aware. I was just trying to add that this form of it is far from unique to English and Latin.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#549

Post by _bxg1 »

empath75 wrote: post #213
throwaway5752 wrote: post #109

Everyone serious knew that a trade war would set a recession in motion, and that it would be a trade war the US would lose because of the directionality of the trade. The thought has always been that the president was using a high leverage negotiating strategy (see https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/for-trump-diplomacy... , for example) to extract maximal concessions from PRC. But in the end, most of the people…

> the thought has always been that the president was using a high leverage negotiating strategy Whose thought? The people who didn't know that trump was an incompetent nutjob?

Worse than incompetent, he's enormously impulsive.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#550

Post by godtoldmetodoit »

wonderwonder wrote: post #359
dageshi wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It certainly won't be worse than 2008. 2008 was a financial crisis, core parts of the banking system were suspect, nobody knew who they could trust or who was solvent and worse nobody had a clue how to solve it for a dangerously long period of time. The financial system is not in that same position this time and as for China, China's growth is largely kept to china itself and guarded jealously, China did little or no…

Just my opinion but I think it will be worse than 2008 for normal people. Companies that are cash rich due to the tax cuts will use the recession as an excuse to execute deep labor cuts and boost their stock price. There is no longer a reason for executives to even pretend to care about employees as the one time bonus / stock buy backs after the tax cuts proved. Wells Fargo has already proven that the same rules that…

We need Andrew Yang, or somebody else to pick up the UBI idea, now. There's no time to slow play this and do a bunch of studies. We have enough data, somebody just needs to do it.
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