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UAE to leave OPEC

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Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#531

Post by tmp10423288442 »

don_esteban wrote: post #433
fragmede wrote: post #428

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, exactly. The panel's control system is connected to the Internet and there's an app that an attacker could take advantage of to interfere with critical infrastructure at an inopportune time.

If you are doing grid-scale installation, surely you would want your own control system (perhaps also on your own network, separated from the general internet), precisely in order to protect the grid.

There’s always the issue that it might be hard to find competent people that can implement a control network isolated from the internet if it has an internet connection by default.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#532

Post by jmyeet »

huntertwo wrote: post #483
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #20

Context: (1) “The United Arab Emirates,” today “made a shock request of [Pakistan] — repay $3.5bn immediately” [1]. (2) Saudi-Emirati relations were at an all-time low before the Iran War [2]. (Saudi Arabia just bailed Pakistan out of its Emirati loan. Saudi Arabia and Pakistan agreed a mutual-defence treaty last year [3].) Put together, we’re seeing an Emirati-Israeli axis emerging to balance Saudi hegemony in the G…

Shouldn’t UAE be upset their entire economy has absolutely rammed by the war started by Israel? At least the Saudis have pipelines - UAE is fucked

It's more complex than that.

Saudi Arabia has the East-West Pipeline [1] that takes ~7Mbpd (million barrels per day) of oil to Red Sea ports to avoid the Strait of Hormuz. They were already using it so there's not a lot of extra capacity they can get out. If we continue up the escalation ladder, the next big risk is that the Houthis close Bab al-Mandab, which is a not-quite-as-narrow but still vulnerable chokepoint to the Red Sea.

The UAE has the ADCOP (Abu Dhabi Cross Oil Pipeline) [2], which takes ~1.8Mbpd to the Gulf of Oman. This is beyond the Strait of Hormuz but not that far so technically is still vulnerable to drone attacks (in particular) from Iran if, again, we climb the escalation ladder.

The real issue is American security guarantees to GCC nations have been shown to be an illusion. Heck, the US can't protect their own bases in the region. Also, the US can't protect maritime traffic through the Strait. I mean this is in all seriousness: there is no military solution to this problem short of the use of nuclear weapons.

That means we are now in a situation where the US has to either split with Israel and offer Iran significantly better terms than they had before the war, likely including the lfiting of economic sanctions, or the US has to sit and watch the world plunge into recession and Asian countries in particular are going to burn. And who knows what a prolonged impasse will do to Europe, particularly come winter.

So far, the US seems to prefer letting the world burn rather thans plitting with Israel.

A protection racket ceases to be a protection racket if it no longer offers protection.

[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East%E2%80%93West_Crude_Oil_Pi...

[2]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Habshan%E2%80%93Fujairah_oil_p...

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#533

Post by geraneum »

0xbadcafebee wrote: post #224

This is the US trying to salvage the petrodollar. They want those t-bills and oil priced in dollars to maintain reserve currency status, but the whole world is divesting anyway. UAE is hoping that by leaving OPEC they can continue to do business and get protection from US. But US isn't gonna risk a larger war just to defend UAE, US has plenty of oil to exploit in Venezuela and at home. So UAE is just kinda screwed, a…

> it'll happen by Q1 2027

Which month?

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#535

Post by jmyeet »

0xbadcafebee wrote: post #224

This is the US trying to salvage the petrodollar. They want those t-bills and oil priced in dollars to maintain reserve currency status, but the whole world is divesting anyway. UAE is hoping that by leaving OPEC they can continue to do business and get protection from US. But US isn't gonna risk a larger war just to defend UAE, US has plenty of oil to exploit in Venezuela and at home. So UAE is just kinda screwed, a…

Petrodollar discourse tends to annoy me because people tend to get cause and effect confused.

The dollar isn't strong because oil is traded in it. Oil is traded in dollars because the dollar is strong. What makes the dollar strong? The US military and, at least up until now, the US essentially guaranteeing global maritime trade. Oh and the US also being the world's arms dealer. Why this is such a huge strategic blunder is because the US has proven itself unable to militarily open the Strait of Hormuz. This should surprise precisely no one. The Joint Chiefs knew it. The Intelligence community knew it.

Let me put this another way: you could make all oil trades in euros tomorrow and pretty much everyone would still hold dollars and convert to euros as needed. People don't understand this so you get silly conspiracy theories around, say, the Iraq War being started because Saddam Hussein was starting to trade oil in euros.

Let me give you a concrete example of this all in action. Iran has threatened to charge tolls to pass through the Strait and they wanted to be paid in crypto, largely to avoid having their funds frozen (as has already happened) because the US has that kind of control over the financial system. But that's still a problem because all US companies and any financial institution that wants to main access to the global financial system isn't legally allowed to trade with Iran, even in crypto. My point is that all of this could be traded in crypto and it wouldn't matter. The "petrodollar" would still rule.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#536

Post by KingOfCoders »

wdr1 wrote: post #526
huntertwo wrote: post #483

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Shouldn’t UAE be upset their entire economy has absolutely rammed by the war started by Israel? At least the Saudis have pipelines - UAE is fucked

> Shouldn’t UAE be upset their entire economy has absolutely rammed by the war started by Israel? It's pretty convoluted logic to blame Israel for Iran attacking the UAE.

The problems the UAE has are not based on Iran attacking the UAE but Iran closing the Strait - which is a direct and foreseeable result of Israel attacking Iran.

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#537

Post by oa335 »

nixon_why69 wrote: post #530
oa335 wrote: post #522

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I never claimed this only ever happens in the Middle East. you said > Arab democracies are unstable because they will elect Islamists. whereas my claim is that governments (democracies or not) that run afoul of their local hegemon tend to have a short shelf life. this is not unique to US hegemony. see: Brezhnev doctrine (USSR), or the canonical example of Athens and Melos from Peloponnesian war > Rise up for El Gen…

Real heads know that the strong do what they can while the weak suffer what they must.

lol yes exactly.

Realism has more way explanatory power in geopolitics than idealism. Idealist explanations are typically incoherent (e.g. above thread).

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#538

Post by fuzzfactor »

satvikpendem wrote: post #491
nradov wrote: post #271

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can buy a Ford Maverick compact pickup truck from your local dealer today. The profit margins on larger trucks are higher precisely because that's what consumers want. No one is forcing them to buy those vehicles.

Compare the Maverick to a Japanese kei trucks, they so impressed the current president that he signed an executive order allowing them, if they're manufactured in the US.

Good example of what they have in Japan right now.

The Maverick is quite sizable compared to the original Ford Ranger too, which was still bigger than the regular Japanese trucks that were all over the US after oil skyrocketed the first time:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ukmzZ5DXBqQ

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#539

Post by sysguest »

huntertwo wrote: post #519
sysguest wrote: post #515

Earlier quoted context omitted.

hmm isn't the whole thing a continuation of "revenge against hamas's attack on Oct 7th 2023" ? hamas being a proxy to iran, I don't get why people think iran as some "peace loving, innocent country" well, are they? raping/killing some *foreigners* and displaying their bodies as parade... well that's not very "peace loving and innocent" is it?

When you make a ceasefire and then strike first, that’s called being the aggressor. How many civilians has Israel killed since oct 7? When is it enough? Israel killed >50k civilians since October 7 between all the conflicts Revenge is not a justification for destroying civilizations. Israelis also rape, kill, and do other vile things to prisoners, innocent or guilty, who they imprison with or without charge.

> Israelis also rape, kill, and do other vile things to prisoners, innocent or guilty, who they imprison with or without charge.

well but do israelis parade their dead rape victims openly?

> When you make a ceasefire and then strike first

well that's between trump and iran? did netanyahu agree?

I agree that netanyahu is being a dick here: he should have focused on iran, instead of invading lebanon. That alone is a huge political/PR mistake

but... how's that ceasefire related? is israel a proxy of usa? does Trump control israel directly?

Ethically, the israel politicians goes at great length NOT to damage civilians: the walkie-talkie bomb is a classic example of "try to kill all the militants WITHOUT carpet bombing"

(though they failed to "kill all" with that scheme, and... well they did bomb a lot after that)

Re: UAE to leave OPEC

#540

Post by ajross »

jmyeet wrote: post #532
huntertwo wrote: post #483

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Shouldn’t UAE be upset their entire economy has absolutely rammed by the war started by Israel? At least the Saudis have pipelines - UAE is fucked

It's more complex than that. Saudi Arabia has the East-West Pipeline [1] that takes ~7Mbpd (million barrels per day) of oil to Red Sea ports to avoid the Strait of Hormuz. They were already using it so there's not a lot of extra capacity they can get out. If we continue up the escalation ladder, the next big risk is that the Houthis close Bab al-Mandab, which is a not-quite-as-narrow but still vulnerable chokepoint t…

> Asian countries in particular are going to burn

They won't sit still, though. Eventually, if this were tried, we'd see Chinese-flagged tankers buying passage rights from Iran and being escorted by PLAN ships.

No way does Commander TACO take that shot. The US interdiction threat in the gulf is empty, and everyone know it. Iran gets paid at the end of every story. The whole boondoggle has been a failure for the US in every analysis.

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