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De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

jpmorgan.com

531–540 of 913 posts

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#531
post #433

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> easy to transfer from one party to another "Let me just set up my P2P connection to the Bitcoin network and pay mining fees and hope a miner validates the block" vs "Here's a bar of gold mate" Sure, real easy

OK, how do I know that gold is pure and real? What if you live on the other side of the world and I want to buy that gold from you? And there isn't any "hope" involved in bitcoin transactions. Connecting to the peer to peer network is super simple (way, way easier than creating a brokerage or bank account, and no ID or approval is required). Miners will pick up your transaction (and yes fees will help speed that up,…

Bitcoin doesn't really solve the trust issue, because it covers half the transaction. If I send you a bunch of bitcoin in exchange for oil, how do I ensure the oil shows up?

There are fixes to that problem, of course, but it's not bitcoin itself that's the solution.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#532

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why did the fed raise interest rates? To soak up some of that cash. It was too slow, but this is exactly the sound money policy that everyone expects. You loosen cash (what you mistakenly call printing money), when you need investment, and tighten cash when inflation and risk taking is out of control.

a sound response to some of the worst fed decision making in US history. they essentially ruined the housing market, priced out a generation of younger buyers, which is now crushing fertility rates, savings, and more

* fertility rates have been dropping for a long time. While this article is focused on "it's not about the teens", it isn't tied to housing, or after covid: https://ifstudies.org/blog/the-us-fertility-decline-is-not-d...

* housing market was already quite bad before covid (see sibling comment)

* Savings rates have hovered around 5% for almost 25+ years - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PSAVERT

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#533
post #473

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> ICE has widespread support for what they are actually doing Minnesota would like to have a chat with you.

https://www.kttc.com/2026/01/20/americas-pulse-current-ice-a... About 40-50% are in support, so the parent's accurate. That roughly matches the political divide across the states.

The first sentence says that that's a national poll, not a Minnesota poll

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#534

It's no secret that our current US administration is envious of China. So in no small part they probably want to model the US Dollar after the Renminbi. Drop the value internationally to incentivize American exports, and manipulate the hell out of it. (Hence why they have dropped inflation as a political issue - some in the administration are essentially rooting for inflation to get much, much worse). It should go wi…

> probably want to model the US Dollar after the Renminbi. I don't see that. Given trump's history, he thinks that going back to tariffs will allow massive tax cuts. As he trades in real estate, tariffs are inconsequential for him

Trump is a populist.

He supports tariffs for the exact same reason Bernie Sanders does. There is a reason so many bernie bros jumped to camp Trump in 2016 when (globalist) Hillary won the nomination.

There is no secret or conspiracy going on here. Trump is a populist president and is unsurprisingly doing populist things, elected because of his populist stances. At this point you have to have stabbed your eyes out and shoved spikes in your ears to not know that all he does it gush about bringing back 1950's factory worker dad.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#535

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The UK was not part of the Euro economy.

While similar to Denmark and Sweden it retained its own currency, and was also not part of Schengen, It was part of the Single Market.

Sweden does not have an opt out for the euro.

Sweden just haven’t completed the stabilization and alignment criteria to formally switch over, arguing that it is voluntary.

We had a referendum on the euro back 2003 with a clear mandate to not adopt it and the politicians don’t want to poke the sleeping tiger that is the euro question.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#536

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Retailers don't accept crypto not because of the technology so much as the fact it is a capital gains event every time you transfer crypto, which means both the buyer and seller are now forced to keep a log of their gains/losses against the dollar everytime they buy a pack of gum. Obviously that's extremely impractical and at best you're hiring a 3rd party to streamline that for you. It's a clusterfuck at tax time (e…

Reticence among retailers predates the capital gains policy of the IRS. The volatility of Bitcoin's value induces excessive exchange risk. However, we don't see capital gains nor exchange risk with stablecoins. I assume that network effects are insufficient to drive retail demand for stablecoin support.

The volatility of bitcoin is why there is capital gains on every trade, it has nothing to do with the IRS's new crypto policy.

If a bitcoin rises or falls by a calculable amount between when you received it vs when you spent a portion of it, you have gains/losses. That has always been required by the IRS to be reported, whether that is a BTC or chicken feathers.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#537
post #268

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A goat or a sheep cost roughly the same in gold today as it cost 2000 years ago during the Roman Empire. Gold is the only “real money” in the sense that it is the only stable measure of the value of basic needs over centuries. https://chatgpt.com/share/696fb3e8-91d4-800a-9b2b-32eacdadeb...

A goat costs exactly (not roughly) the same in goats today as it cost 2000 years ago. So by that measure a goat is the only stable measure of the value of basic needs over centuries.

That's why new stablecoin is backed by goats: Capracoin

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#538

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why is manufacturing so special? As opposed to something like software? Also, manufacturing in the US is growing not shrinking. For a long time.

If The US goes to war against China, we are screwed, because we outsourced our manufacturing to China. We cannot quickly ramp up our manufacture of ships, tanks, aircraft or ammunition. Not only do we lack manufacturing capacity, the entire supply chain is in China / Asia. In addition, China leads in the critical technologies need for drone oriented warfare, like we are seeing in Ukraine.

In particular, the pentagon has so many suppliers in China. Oh, the KPIs (key pharmaceutical ingredients) are produced by China too. We even had shortage of saline solution when China was having a supply crunch. So when a conflict, let alone a war, broke out with China, what do we do? We ask China to supply us the war logistics?

A fun story, China has the best automated seafood processing factories that meet all kinds of regulations in the world. It's cheaper, a lot cheaper, for Japan and Alaska to send their seafood to China to process, and then sell back to the domestic market. And it has nothing to do with cheap labor but deep R&D of China. So, when war broke out, many people won't be able to enjoy cheap seafood either.

I don't understand how people can ignore a simple fact (is it Milton who pointed that out?): Manufacturing is a "doing" business, not a "knowing" business. Our expertise is forged on the shop floor, not dreamed up in a boardroom, and certainly not bought through outsourcing. There is so much tacit knowledge that manufacturing capability is a living system. It lives in the collective experience of the workforce and the rhythm of the line, not in static documents.

Oh maybe this is the time to quota Thomas Joseph Dunning: With adequate profit, capital is very bold. A certain 10 per cent. will ensure its employment anywhere; 20 per cent. certain will produce eagerness; 50 per cent., positive audacity; 100 per cent. will make it ready to trample on all human laws; 300 per cent., and there is not a crime at which it will scruple, nor a risk it will not run, even to the chance of its owner being hanged.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#539
post #467

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Interestingly, there seems to be more good will and amiable vibes between EU nationalities than within the US even. Even being enemies for a thousand years, I don't doubt that Swedish and Danish men would go to war for one another, or French and German. It's complicated yes, but the continent is more unified in spirit than it may seem to an outsider.

The great minds that - after WWII - built the new Europe had in mind that there should never be war again, which is best realized when former enemies become friends and closer bonds are established at multiple levels: politically, economically, culturally (unions, trading exchanges, visits/open borders/teaching common European values in schools). There is a strong political and cultural foundation in geographic Europ…

>Franco-German friendship exemplified by Mitterand-Kohl personal friendship

Ironic to call this a "friendship", when Mitterand along with Thatcher were working behind the scenes with the soviets to sabotage and stop Kohl's reunification of Germany. It was anything but a friendship, but more of a concession.

Politics is full of such examples that look friendly to the public, but hide a lot of sabotage and back stabbings in the background. In fact, the later is the norm in politics.

Re: De-dollarization: Is the US dollar losing its dominance? (2025)

#540

Earlier quoted context omitted.

no they literally just kept printing money for no reason

Its the 'kept printing' that is the problem with the story. There was a surge and a pull back. Post-COVID Tightening: After this historic surge, the Federal Reserve began "quantitative tightening" in 2022 to combat inflation, slowing M2 growth to near zero and eventually reversing it.

This was arguably largely offset by the actions of the treasury's increased short duration issuance (>1 Trillion in t-bills) combined with draw-downs of the reverse repo facility[1] instead of from banks. It's difficult to tell exactly how much money winds it's way into the economy without using proxies - for example credit spreads[2] or NFCI[3] which indicate loose conditions, which don't show much evidence of post 2022 QT's impact.

Or in other words the data seems to show the loosening effects were more powerful than the tightening ones. Now that the RRP has been drawn down balance sheet growth will likely occur.

[1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RRPONTSYD

[2] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLH0A0HYM2

[3]https://www.chicagofed.org/research/data/nfci/current-data

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