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The recurring dream of replacing developers

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Re: The recurring dream of replacing developers

#531

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In my experience translating requirements into a formal language (programming language) is where a lot of the important details are actually worked out. The process of taking the "squishy" thoughts/ideas and translating them into code is a forcing function for actually clarifying and correcting those ideas.

In PRIDE, the important details are worked out before the first line of code is written, in the form of flowcharts and other technical documentation. The earlier in the design and development cycle this is done, the less work you have to do over the entire SDLC and the more time/effort/money you'll save. Bryce: "Mental laziness can also be found in planning and documenting software. Instead of carefully thinking thro…

My point is that you can plan as much as you want in advance, but until the rubber meets the road you will have details that you don't realize are wrong. Those might be small things, or fundamental problems you didn't realize you had.

IMO writing code isn't really more laborious than writing flowcharts and docs. I typically write code to explore the problem, and iterate until I have a good design.

What you're describing is more or less the waterfall model, which has its advantages, but also drawbacks. I don't see anything reason to treat code as only a final implementation step. It can also be a useful tool to aid in thinking and design.

> The earlier in the design and development cycle this is done, the less work you have to do over the entire SDLC and the more time/effort/money you'll save.

I believe this is only true if you treat the first code you write as the final implementation. Of course that's going to cause problems.

Re: The recurring dream of replacing developers

#532

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The trendline is clear. Just as early aviation was dangerous but steadily improved, this technology is getting better month by month. I'm yet to be convinced of this. I keep hearing it, but every time I look at the results they're basically garbage. I think LLMs are useful tools, but I haven't seen anything convincing that they will be able to replace even junior developers any time soon.

Look at the past decade. Zero AI to AI that codes and makes movies in an inferior way when matched with humans. What does common sense tell you the next decade will bring? Does the trendline predict flat lining that LLMs or AI in general won’t improve? Or will the trendline continue like most trendlines typically trend on doing? What is the most logical conclusion?

Common sense tells me not to extrapolate when I only have two points.

https://xkcd.com/605/

I have no doubt LLMs will continue to improve, but no idea at what rate and what the limit will be.

Re: The recurring dream of replacing developers

#534

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even the upfront solutioning is being disrupted though: I Built A Team of AI Agents To Perform Business Analysis https://bettersoftware.uk/2026/01/17/i-built-a-team-of-ai-ag...

I'm always amazed that people freely posts this stuff: "But this agent knows my wants and needs better than most people in my life. And it doesn’t ever get tired of me." That comment says everything about how you view yourself and your fellow humans.

My comment perhaps says more about the kind of fellow humans in my life.

Re: The recurring dream of replacing developers

#535

In the end, I think the dream underneath this dream is about being able to manifest things into reality without having to get into the details. The details are what stops it from working in every form it's been tried. You cannot escape the details. You must engage with them and solve them directly, meticulously. It's messy, it's extremely complicated and it's just plain hard. There is no level of abstraction that sav…

This is the most correct comment I've ever come across.
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