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Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

economist.com

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Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#531

Post by bluGill »

actionfromafar wrote: post #513
quickthrowman wrote: post #459

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Obviously Joe is richer than Pete though. Yeah, because Joe’s net worth is $200,000 and Pete’s is $300 House equity = current value - mortgage balance You subtracted the mortgage twice, so your math is off by $200,000.00

Substitute some numbers until the example makes sense, the point is that net worth can be misleading.

Joe is on the hook for his mortgage and so his monthly cashflow must be higher to afford to live. However his net worth is larger and so he is richer.

This is why middle class people often feel poor than those who are poor: they make more money and have more in total, but they also have large bills and if something happens those bills will catch up with them fast.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#532

Post by nicbou »

prasoon2211 wrote: post #403
nicbou wrote: post #392

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Some anecdata from Berlin: - It's now much harder to get a job without speaking German - There is now competition for low-wage service jobs - At times it felt like half of my friends were unemployed - My dev friends have a much harder time finding work. Back in 2015-2020 I had to beat recruiters back with a stick.

Agree on all points, especially half of my friend circle being unemployed at one point. Folks with amazing jobs having to spend >1y trying to find a "meh" job. Pretty much impossible to find a job without fluent German.

My dev friends could find English speaking jobs but everyone else is struggling. Some are moving away, compromising, or nervously watching the end date of their unemployment insurance. The salaries actually went down since last year if I'm not mistaken.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#533

Post by pfisherman »

windward wrote: post #387
dragonwriter wrote: post #229

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> My pet theory is that we are experiencing stagflation, but only people >70 years old have ever really experienced it before, so most people are just scratching their heads wondering how it’s possible that stocks keep going up (inflation) while jobs are disappearing (stagnation). We do not seem to be technically experiencing stagflation,ir really either half of it, on a national scale, as we appear to still be in a…

>we are in a very weak economy especially outside of the leading AI firms Isn't that part of the cause? It sucks up so much investment, there's nothing left for anything else. Or at least nothing without such perceived upside. Either they pull it off and you're replaced by AGI, or they fail to pull it off and you lose your job to the resulting economic implosion.

My sense is that AI is the one area where boards cannot justify cutting back on investment. If there were no AI boom the rest of the economy would still be getting hammered.

There is still a lot of tech investment, deal making, and hiring going on. It has just left the USA.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#534

Post by bluGill »

flag_fagger wrote: post #510
pyuser583 wrote: post #251

Earlier quoted context omitted.

sorry your math seems strange. You graduated from college in ‘08 - 17 years ago. You’re nearing 40. So let’s say you graduated at 23 … you’ve only had a college level job for five years? The economy has been moving upward since 2013 - 12 years ago. What were you doing from 2013 to 2020? I ask because I also graduated around ‘08. I’ve been a software developer since 2016. I’m currently a senior dev with almost a decad…

Yeah man, those stupid hick rednecks in Appalachia should have just learned to code.

I know some rednecks from Appalachia who did learn to code. He retired from IBM a few years ago (that is IBM was a different company when he worked there than it is now) to a nice retirement in his little mountain shack.

Though I wouldn't tell the rest what they should do. The guy I know had to live in MN for decades (where I met him) away from the rest of his friends and family - that is itself a large cost in lifestyle that I question if money makes up for.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#535

Post by guywithahat »

deadbabe wrote: post #417
GardenLetter27 wrote: post #359

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, once you hit 50 the wall is real. You need to maximise your earnings during your 30s and 40s to be able to just do contracting, etc. then.

Take care of yourself: exercise, skin care, fashion trends, botox, hair dye, etc. so you do not look 50+ and no one will know the difference.

Possibly besides the point but I wouldn't consider botox "taking care of yourself", taking care of yourself is staying in shape, eating healthy, and maybe dressing well and practicing good hygiene.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#536

Post by bluGill »

ramesh31 wrote: post #521
bluGill wrote: post #476

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That advice isn't correct for someone who is just finishing school now. They need to stay alive in a down ecconomy where they can't find a job. In a couple years when things recover (or at least they find a job) it starts to be good advice. Even then I question max 401k - time works for the young and so a maxed 401k makes for too much money in retirement and not enough to enjoy now. Save for retirement yes, but max i…

>Even then I question max 401k - time works for the young and so a maxed 401k makes for too much money in retirement and not enough to enjoy now. Except the 401k is so tax advantaged that you are foolish to not use it as your basis for financial security. Pre-tax money + employer contributions mean 401k is far and away the fastest method of building up a significant chunk of capital to protect yourself from hardship.…

Again, how much money do you need? At some point you are taking a risk, and I don't know any seer/medium/prophet/God/gods who both are talking and I trust (plenty are talking that I don't trust). Even if follow your plan of emergency savings from the 401k, you still don't need to max things out as you should be taking some risk as odds are it won't happen anyway - frankly if things get that bad you should spend more time enjoying life now as your life after that emergency will be bad no matter what and so in the worst case you should save less.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#537

Post by Throaway1985232 »

sheepscreek wrote: post #85
cal_dent wrote: post #62

I think there's something quite interesting (well to me anyway) where if you go by the internet, there is this bloodbath (slight exaggeration perhaps but feels like that) in jobs out in the US, UK, Aus and major European countries (the volume of anecdotes & complaints would suggest a significant downturn in employment) but out in the official data, and less so but still true in the real world, things are still bobbin…

I believe you’re in the minority here. Perhaps your experience is different because of your skill set or the market you’re in. Anyone that I know personally who got laid off (in tech) took at least 6 months to find a job. I don’t know about anyone else but that to me is pretty brutal. More so as the people getting laid off are mid career, some with kids. Edit: Add to the above that companies like Walmart are seeing a…

[dead]

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#538

Post by [deleted] »

bequanna wrote: post #57
OgsyedIE wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The investment thesis in AI is that the decline in consumer spending in the other sectors of the economy won't matter when the consumers cease to be a significant participant in the economy in the near term: that moving investment away from the activity in agriculture, transportation, goods and services, etc., is rational because those sectors are soon to be obsolete when their customers buying power and long term ca…

I’m not sure I follow. So, are you saying that wealth will become completely concentrated at the top and the rest of us are obsolete, out of work and broke? That seems unlikely. What is the point of an economy if there is no one who is actually able to consume?

[deleted]

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#539

Post by deadbabe »

_yb2s wrote: post #516
deadbabe wrote: post #499

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“Companies” don’t hire people, a few human individuals acting autonomously, with their own beliefs and biases, are ultimately responsible for bringing someone new onboard. Once you hit 40s just get the botox anyway. Looks better. Only lasts 3 months or so. Good for a few rounds of interviews.

The way hiring works is a reflection of company culture. If they can’t execute a hiring process that hires the most skilled and competent instead of the youngest and best looking, guess what kind of coworkers you will have to deal with? Anyways, I am in my 40s- I am an amateur strength athlete and eat healthy and already look almost inappropriately healthy and youthful for a sedentary job- enough so that I feel somet…

An ageist company culture does not mean the company is a fraud though or that the jobs are fake. It’s all very real, you are just rejected, that’s what makes it so frustrating, you could be living the good life if only those people weren’t so ageist. Now imagine being a POC and your whole life is like that, just racism everywhere keeping you out.

Re: Is America's jobs market nearing a cliff?

#540

Post by pyuser583 »

flag_fagger wrote: post #510
pyuser583 wrote: post #251

Earlier quoted context omitted.

sorry your math seems strange. You graduated from college in ‘08 - 17 years ago. You’re nearing 40. So let’s say you graduated at 23 … you’ve only had a college level job for five years? The economy has been moving upward since 2013 - 12 years ago. What were you doing from 2013 to 2020? I ask because I also graduated around ‘08. I’ve been a software developer since 2016. I’m currently a senior dev with almost a decad…

Yeah man, those stupid hick rednecks in Appalachia should have just learned to code.

My grandparents were stupid redneck hicks from Appalachia who moved the Midwest and became wealthy and well educated.

The current VP is a stupid redneck hick from Appalachia who … you can Google him.

Point is, one way of responding to regional decline (Appalachia was once the wealthiest part of America) is to move.

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