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America’s incarceration rate is in decline

theatlantic.com

531–540 of 586 posts

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#531

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where'd the corn come from? hunter gatherers had teosint. How'd you turn a tree into logs? Where'd the house come from, where'd the table come from?

You've taken the position that there's some issue with original affluent society but none of the points you're raising run counter either to it or to the adjacent observation that modern quality of life almost certainly doesn't require anywhere near the hours worked at present. Unless you consider economic inequality to be a prerequisite for it anyway.

No, I'm taking the position that there are massive issues with the work estimates in "The Original Affluent Society" in response to a poster that seems to think a small farm in the 1980s is comparable to being a hunter gatherer 20-200kya

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#532

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a very one sided presentation of the facts. This fact is generally used to suggest that theft is all a liberal blue state issue. The highest felony theft amount in the US is in red Texas and is $2500. Around 40 states have a *HIGHER* felony $ limit for theft than California. If you think about it, it makes a lot of sense to not spend $10K+ to jail someone for stealing $500 of stuff. There are more cost effect…

Yeah search for "California store owner kills" and "Texas store owner kills" and see the variety that comes up. In Texas the people are the militia and defend their property. That limit doesn't matter there.

People are increasingly shopping at chain stores, where the staff generally aren't interested in risking their lives for some shareholders. The same phenomenon of stores locking up products on their shelves is happening in both places.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#533

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are numerous articles all over the internet both supporting my claim, as well as negating it, depending on the agenda of the source - there are many people that are morally opposed to porn that would want my claim to be false (and they would still want to ban porn even if that increases rape). Here's some articles that support: https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-sunny-side-of... https://www.scienced…

The rate of homicides and other violent crime have also declined significantly over the same period, so unless you contend that pornography also caused that, the data shows that it does not increase the rate of rape. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/homicide-rate-1990-vs-202...

Nice try moving goalposts, but the data I showed correlates reduction in RAPE with availability of porn, nothing more, nothing less. You can also say that people dying in car accidents reduced during the same time, and seatbelt laws enacted during that time would be the cause. Nothing you've provided disproves that access to porn has no effect on rape. You've only moved goalposts.

But sure, let's ban all porn and watch the rape cases start increasing - I'm sure that's the best way forward. /s

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#534
post #360

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Minimum wage is more complicated in Australia. There are effectively minimum wage levels set per profession, known as awards. This is the list of awards: https://www.fairwork.gov.au/employment-conditions/awards/lis... it's pretty extensive Each award is also complex, and covers a range of issues in the employment. For example, this is the Professional Employee award: https://awards.fairwork.gov.au/MA000065.html just…

Is "inheritance" used in a different way here similar to how "award" is, or are you saying you often need to inherit money from your family in order to be able to buy a house in Australia?

No, it's used in the same way as elsewhere in the Anglosphere. And yes, as in the rest of the Anglosphere, generally you need an inheritance to be able to afford to buy property.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#535
post #55
post #12

> Rapidly declining numbers of youth are committing crimes, getting arrested, and being incarcerated. This matters because young offenders are the raw material that feeds the prison system: As one generation ages out, another takes its place on the same horrid journey. Another factor which will soon impact this, if it isn't already, is the rapidly changing nature of youth. Fertility rates have been dropping since 200…

> the act of having a child is much more deliberate and the parents likely having more resources This is both good and bad. Having a child is very difficult, but it gets harder as you get older. You lack a lot of monitory resources as a teen or the early 20s, but you have a lot more energy, as you get older your body starts decaying you will lack energy. A kid had at 40 will still be depending on your when you are 55…

You speak way off base. Many, possibly most people in their early 40s can have kids and still keep up with them well into their 50s. Not only is it easier than ever to pull this off for many modern reasons of health and lifestyle decisions, it's not even exceptionally hard unless you're unlucky with your health or do something to really fuck it up. Even decades ago, many many men at least were commonly fathering children in their 40s and even 50s, and rearing them.

You write your comment about the maximum safe age for having children as if most people (at least in the advanced countries and moderately reasonable income brackets) were living the lives of 19th century industrial workers.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#536
post #236

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is your proof that it will not decline further? If you have no proof, then at the very least the cause must be investigated. After all, the concern is that the current rate of declining birth rate, means extinction in a few centuries. You don't just shrug that off and say "oh well, it'll probably be just fine."

Sure I do. You have zero proof that decline goes below a world population of 1 billion. This belief that it must always grow is based on just a fear. Very similar to the fear that gays marrying will cause everyone else to stop. Hasn't happened.

the only reason for population growth is that economy (asset valuation) is based on future projection of consumption (which is based on population) and social security, which is based on future taxpayer paychecks.

the idea behind "population growth" is that we will need future slaves to prop up our social security and asset bubbles.

think of a country as an ant colony, what happens if population decreases? the queen will get less food

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#537
post #198

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Industry and highways and other high sources of lead pollution were built in the areas with higher juvenile delinquency. Not in rich, privileged areas. I think you can also correlate the rise in violent crime to amount of lead contamination in the soil, some articles claiming down to the city block level.

Which order did these things happen in? Maybe industry and highways increase lead exposure which leads to crime, or maybe areas already high in crime are cheaper so that's where industry and highways go?

Specifically violent crime. Poor areas had more violent crime. These areas got dumped with more lead pollution. The rise percentage wise correlates almost perfectly with lead levels, with poor (and now polluted) areas rising more than well off areas. And then the drop, where after lead was removed from petrol you get a significant drop, but still less of a drop in areas more lead soil contamination, such of those blocks next to a highway. We know the developmental effects on young brains from lead; it is why we banned it.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#538
post #483

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Physical shape is not the same or even proportional to the ability to pull all-nighters. I know two men 18 years apart in age who became fathers at the same time - two months apart to be exact. Even though the older is an avid gym-goer, it's only the younger who can pull off popping back into full strength after less than 6h of sleep.

Newborns keep you up but an all-nighter is a stretch. Also, you're looking after your kid and trying to get them to sleep, not trying to churn out code to get something to market/go to prod.

A sick kid will absolutely keep you up all night, and kids love germs, so they get sick a lot

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#539
post #296

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m not trying to play down any problems or say nothing should be done. In fact I’m not expressing any beliefs other than the (very well supported) notion that children’s brains are not fully developed and therefore they shouldn’t be dealt with in the same way as adults because that’s just dumb and is likely not to help.

Can you expand on "that's just dumb"? I don't understand what argument this is trying to make. All people have different brains; some are very low-intelligence and impulsive by nature and training, and this can apply at any age. The point of this punishment is not to apply a sort of cosmic morality according to the true culpability of a soul. Abstract principles about whether the person 'deserves' a punishment aren't…

> The point of this punishment is not to apply a sort of cosmic morality according to the true culpability

Except that is very much part of the justice system, and when people talk about "trying kids as adults" it is exactly about holding them culpable as if they were adults.

> We must stop them hurting people; let's figure out how.

I very much agree. "Lock 'em up and throw away the key", "they knew what they were doing!" and, an actual slogan from the queensland elections, "adult crime, adult time" don't really show a search for a solution. They're just appeals to base vengefulness.

Yes, kids commiting serious crimes need to be stopped. Victims and the wider society need to be safe. Yes the systems in Australia have been failing at this, over and over.

But young brains don't take consequences into account in the same way older brains do. They don't understand the impact that their actions will have on others or themselves in the longer term and aren't especially likely to consider harsher consequences as a deterrent because they aren't thinking about consequences. They literally aren't wired that way.

If your goal is actually reducing crime experienced by the community, you need to look at why kids are getting to that point, what's gone wrong in their upbringing, maybe holding parents more culpable, and intervening earlier. Otherwise you're not going to achieve anything more than a few appealing soundbites. And the problem with all of that in an Australian context is that there is a hidden subtext here - it's often (far from always, but often) First Nations kids who are causing the problem, and there is a long history of state intervention in First Nations families being - there's no other way to put this - actively evil.

It's a tough situation involving under-developed brains, ongoing generational trauma and all sorts of other crap.

For reference, here's what the Australian Human Rights Commission has to say - https://humanrights.gov.au/sites/default/files/2025.04.15%20...

"The evidence shows that the younger children are locked up, the more likely it is that they will go on to commit more serious and violent crimes. As shown in the HWE report making the justice system more punitive through longer sentences, harsher bail laws, and building more children’s prisons is the wrong approach.

That is because offending by children is a symptom of underlying causes and unmet needs that we are failing to address. The proposed measures in the Bill are likely to result in more crime, not less."

So I agree, action needs to be taken, people need to be safe. Trying kids as adults is a simplistic sop to anger, not a good solution and flies in the face of evidence.

tl;dr - It's dumb.

Re: America’s incarceration rate is in decline

#540
post #234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Too far is an understatement. People keep poking at the wrong reasons, but in some societies it is quite dire. South Korea with this year of 1, when 2.1 means 'static', means more than halving the population every 30 years or so. For a reverse comparison, if you take a penny and double it every day, you end up with > $5M in 30 days. And yet this birthrate issue doesn't take into account plague, war, natural disasters…

> What happens when no one can have children? That sounds like the plot of a sci-fi movie.

Children of men, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Children_of_Men
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