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Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

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Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#531

Post by csense »

cycomanic wrote: post #324
toddmorey wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Very well put. Alliances take years to build but can be broken in just days. I'm tempted to think (hope? dream?) that the markets and trade will rebound if all this chaos makes American politics swing back towards an interest in global stability, but I think anyone partnering with the US would do so VERY carefully and right now the entire world is plotting how to remove US dependencies.

I was bringing this up with a guy yesterday who was genuinely supporting the policies and somebody chimed in that they were not worried at all, because everyone wants to trade with the big boy in town. Trust is not important if they are afraid of you (I'm paraphrasing). Quite a different perspective, but it is consistent with an observation I made about a lot of US comments, people are quite happy for their country/g…

> "if you don't want it to be done to you don't do it to others"

Doesn't work. We opened trade to China in the '70s. They took advantage of us, stealing IP, manipulating currency, paying their people terrible wages, crapping all over the environment. We let their companies freely in the US, they very severely restricted US business ventures in China.

Detroit, a former shining city in the industrial heartland, is now a bandit infested ruin.

In the US, a person used to be able to graduate high school and get a job that could support owning a house with a yard, a non-working spouse, a car, and multiple children.

For me, coming from the Rust Belt, it's incredibly, painfully obvious that globalization's basically destroyed the US economy. I'm constantly amazed to meet well-meaning, intelligent people who don't seem to understand this fact.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#532

Post by remarkEon »

onetimeusename wrote: post #260
sebmellen wrote: post #196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You’re right about all you say. But the US has struggled to implement even the simplest forms of industrial policy because other countries are so extremely price-competitive, and our markets so unbridled, that our “elites” have eroded our industrial base to drive shareholder returns. If not through tariffs, how else do you force reindustrialization? Industrial policy will always fail if it’s driven by a chimeric poli…

The problem is that the tariffs can be undone by the next president. I think that would discourage any investment in industry here. Even if this works, I feel like there is now a political commitment to undoing the tariffs.

They can, yes. But this is likely harder than you think. Suppose Trump puts a bunch of tariffs on cheap Chinese tires so that American tires are price competitive again (no idea if this happened, this is a hypothetical). If the next president removes those tariffs it would look like fucking over the tire manufacturers in whichever swing state they live in.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#533

Post by remarkEon »

percentcer wrote: post #225
sebmellen wrote: post #196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You’re right about all you say. But the US has struggled to implement even the simplest forms of industrial policy because other countries are so extremely price-competitive, and our markets so unbridled, that our “elites” have eroded our industrial base to drive shareholder returns. If not through tariffs, how else do you force reindustrialization? Industrial policy will always fail if it’s driven by a chimeric poli…

Why is it important to force reindustrialization?

The Pandemic exposed the reasons why pretty clearly. Having e.g. critical medicines manufactured by a geopolitical and military adversary is a very bad idea.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#534

Post by fspeech »

sebmellen wrote: post #455
tock wrote: post #445

Earlier quoted context omitted.

America is the richest country in the world. That is the payback. Yet somehow the working class is screwed. People don't want to admit wealth distribution is the problem because that would make them "communists". It's an emotional response. I'm scared how far they take it.

Right, and I think that’s largely true. Whether or not the “right wing working class” are right in their root cause analysis, the domestic situation in the US is catastrophic enough to demand explanation: “If we are the richest country on earth, why can’t I afford a house and healthcare?” Answer 1: You are being taken advantage of by wealthy elites within your country! Answer 2: The whole world has made Americans fro…

Housing and healthcare are the two things that have little to do with trade. Housing affordability is almost entirely policy driven. In a "free" market (quoted because the definition typically doesn't take into account the necessity of a functional society to maintain property rights and values, just ask Detroit), housing affordability is entirely dependent on one's relative income and propensity to spend, i.e. you can have high absolute income (say in NYC) and still find you desired housing unaffordable. I think people intuitively understand this. Healthcare costs are more complicated but is also almost entirely a domestic issue.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#535

Post by JackYoustra »

lenerdenator wrote: post #434
JackYoustra wrote: post #264

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The surplus value that used to head to shareholders as a result of cheap foreign goods will go down, but that can be offset by layoffs and the like. could you just do the layoffs without the tariff if it were a conspiracy?

But then what are you doing to "help" American manufacturing?

I mean clearly nothing but why does that matter

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#536

Post by JackYoustra »

ttyprintk wrote: post #491
JackYoustra wrote: post #233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would shareholders want to tank the value of their shares?

Trump only owns one stock: a major portion of the parent company of Truth social. Nothing he’s done has caused that stock to rise or steady.

TMTG down over 10% since before announcement

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#537

Post by JackYoustra »

trentlott wrote: post #514
JackYoustra wrote: post #233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why would shareholders want to tank the value of their shares?

Because they're wealthy enough to have separation between their 'existence' money and their 'power and status' money. Tank the country and they get to own a little sliver more of it. The cheese and clothes they buy don't change. Because they've got more than plenty.

No that's not what I mean I mean like if I have 99% of my assets in ...business capital (read: mostly stock) what's the plan? I'd have to front-run, but the wealthy own half of the business capital in the US so that's also incoherent because there's just not that much besides other wealthy to front-run.

If the wealthy wanted to buy something up on the cheap that they didn't own, they'd do residential real estate: something that's majority middle class owned (a fun corollary: property taxes are just wealth taxes on the middle class, the proportion of business capital the middle class owns is teeny). However, house prices have gone in the opposite direction as you'd expect from this theory!

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#539

Post by JackYoustra »

saturn8601 wrote: post #530
JackYoustra wrote: post #222

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The rich have most of their money in stocks, saying they can lower stocks to buy stocks doesn't make much sense

The rich are about to get a massive tax cut. They cannot possibly spend all those savings on things like food or consumer goods. So where does it go? Assets: Housing, more stocks, antiquities. Any truly rich person will have a diversified portfolio of assets. So what if some of their stocks go down temporarily? They will go back up eventually and the rich can afford to wait out much longer than any normal peon. Its n…

It's more concentrated than you give it credit: the wealthy overwhelmingly hold their money in business capital (read: stocks) not housing. Housing is predominantly owned by the middle class. Having stocks go up and down is what mostly changes the ultra-rich wealth, and in this case they're going down.

Re: Trump's Tariffs Wipe Out over $6T on Wall Street in Epic Two-Day Rout

#540

Post by irrational »

JackYoustra wrote: post #222
irrational wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m pretty sure the only ones it will be good for are the rich. Make the rich richer. They will be able to buy stocks cheaply. They will be able to buy homes cheaply as people lose their jobs and foreclose. They will make the USA into a nation of renters. They will increase inflation and prices of everything so most people will be on the cusp of insolvency so they have to work multiple jobs for lower wages and can ne…

The rich have most of their money in stocks, saying they can lower stocks to buy stocks doesn't make much sense

They get loans using their portfolios as collateral and then use the loans to buy stocks. This is very standard.
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