Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

wsj.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

531–540 of 1001 posts

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#531

Post by xyzzy123 »

krainboltgreene wrote: post #526
jonkoops wrote: post #465

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A 'small' island with one of the most successful and thriving democracies in the East, that has world class industry. China cannot have a successful democracy on their doorstep, it undermines their perception of absolute Chinese superiority.

China is a democracy. It's literally what you're describing Taiwan as. That said I do agree that it does cause China's superiority to be called into question. Imagine if the Confederate states of America managed to take hold of Cuba and hold out. EDIT: I'm literally factually correct. In 5 of the 6 indexes China has a Democracy score where as Brunei, an absolute monarchy, doesn't!

> China is a democracy

You get to vote sometimes but there's only one party...

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#532

Post by jabiko »

krainboltgreene wrote: post #526
jonkoops wrote: post #465

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A 'small' island with one of the most successful and thriving democracies in the East, that has world class industry. China cannot have a successful democracy on their doorstep, it undermines their perception of absolute Chinese superiority.

China is a democracy. It's literally what you're describing Taiwan as. That said I do agree that it does cause China's superiority to be called into question. Imagine if the Confederate states of America managed to take hold of Cuba and hold out. EDIT: I'm literally factually correct. In 5 of the 6 indexes China has a Democracy score where as Brunei, an absolute monarchy, doesn't!

> China is a democracy

Regardless of which democracy index (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_indices) you consult, they all disagree with that statement.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#533

Post by lawgimenez »

nverno wrote: post #459
ekianjo wrote: post #456

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No need to go on the island to win. Just encircle it. A blockade. Always works and this has been the modus operandi to conquer fortresses and castles for millenia.

Time wouldn't be on their side though. China would need to effectively complete the invasion before the US navy had time to react. Even if it was considered unlikely the US would react, I doubt China would commit to an invasion they weren't certain they could win.

I think you forgot that US has over 9 bases here, and we are less than a hundred miles below Taiwan.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_bases_in_the_Phi...

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#534

Post by krainboltgreene »

eloisius wrote: post #529
krainboltgreene wrote: post #526

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China is a democracy. It's literally what you're describing Taiwan as. That said I do agree that it does cause China's superiority to be called into question. Imagine if the Confederate states of America managed to take hold of Cuba and hold out. EDIT: I'm literally factually correct. In 5 of the 6 indexes China has a Democracy score where as Brunei, an absolute monarchy, doesn't!

More like the Union holding out for 70 years in Puerto Rico after the Confederates won. In what sense do you mean China is a democracy? I may be brainwashed on CIA propaganda, but as far as I understand only party-vetted candidates may stand for election.

Wait do you not know what the KMT did? They're a rightwing party that killed/disappeared 30k journalists and intellectuals in Taiwan. How in the world is that comparable to the "union"? (But also yes Puerto Rico might be a better example).

In the sense that they're on the V-Dem index, they have election laws, they have voter rolls, they have voter turnout, etc. Yes they have one party, so you don't directly vote for the President, but neither do Americans.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#535

Post by 127 »

ninetyninenine wrote: post #269
yo_yo_yo-yo wrote: post #121

I cannot even begin to imagine what madness has infected the Taiwanese government to allow this. I feel so sorry for a great, entrepreneurial people. US tariffs will not matter when you are blockaded and Chester Nimitz is very much dead. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43123628

The U.S. frames its deteriorating relationship with China as a fight for “human rights” and “democracy,” but from China’s perspective, that’s just a cover for a larger campaign to contain its rise. The real issue? The U.S. fears losing global dominance and is using trade wars, tech bans, military encirclement, and financial pressure to slow China down. China doesn’t want direct military conflict—it prefers economic a…

Given how US threw Ukraine under the bus, I don't think freedom or democracy are anywhere on the US foreign policy agenda.

In fact, even genocide doesn't really move the needle given the Gaza push.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#536

Post by krainboltgreene »

xyzzy123 wrote: post #531
krainboltgreene wrote: post #526

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China is a democracy. It's literally what you're describing Taiwan as. That said I do agree that it does cause China's superiority to be called into question. Imagine if the Confederate states of America managed to take hold of Cuba and hold out. EDIT: I'm literally factually correct. In 5 of the 6 indexes China has a Democracy score where as Brunei, an absolute monarchy, doesn't!

> China is a democracy You get to vote sometimes but there's only one party...

Democracy isn't when you have multiple parties. It's when you elect people to govern. Many americans think that America has a uniparty, despite all appearances.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#537

Post by krainboltgreene »

jabiko wrote: post #532
krainboltgreene wrote: post #526

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China is a democracy. It's literally what you're describing Taiwan as. That said I do agree that it does cause China's superiority to be called into question. Imagine if the Confederate states of America managed to take hold of Cuba and hold out. EDIT: I'm literally factually correct. In 5 of the 6 indexes China has a Democracy score where as Brunei, an absolute monarchy, doesn't!

> China is a democracy Regardless of which democracy index ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_indices ) you consult, they all disagree with that statement.

V-dem, Bertelsmann, and EDI literally has scores for China. You'll notice places like Brunei, an absolute monarchy, isn't on the list.

Because China is a democracy and Brunei is not a democracy.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#538

Post by gizmo »

rob74 wrote: post #407
mu53 wrote: post #338

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US is not going to help defend Taiwan is a fair thesis, but reciprocally, China is not going to attack Taiwan. Even if Russia gets all of it's demands in the peacemaking process with Ukraine, that war has done permanent and lasting damage to it's economy and global position. For China to attack Taiwan, it would give up any hope of continuing it's healthy trends towards increased economic and political importance.…

The US is not going to defend Taiwan because of chips, but China is also not going to attack Taiwan because of chips - if they do, they'll attack it for the same reason Putin attacked Ukraine: an "us vs them" mentality helps keep dictators in power, and nothing creates such a mentality better than a war. We can only hope that China is sensible enough to see the downsides too, but the current international climate is…

Putin was popular in Russia in 2022 and his domestic enemies were weak. Putin didn't need a war to hold on to power. Wars are sometimes fought to distract from domestic problems, but that wasn't the case here. Putin has argued for more than 20 years that the Russia/Ukraine border was not determined correctly when the USSR fell and that the 1991 borders were "unfair" to Russia. Add to that Ukraine's cultural shift away from Russia, messy elections, NATO, and the belief that Russia would easily defeat Ukraine and it's pretty clear why Putin decided to invade in 2022. No reason to hypothesize alternative theories. Putin is still very popular especially among older generations despite the heavy cost of the war.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#539

Post by eloisius »

lupusreal wrote: post #481
ekianjo wrote: post #456

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No need to go on the island to win. Just encircle it. A blockade. Always works and this has been the modus operandi to conquer fortresses and castles for millenia.

A blockade takes time to have an effect and that time gives US Navy SSNs time to start sinking the PLAN (in righteous response to the PLAN attacking merchant ships approaching Taiwan.) For the PRCs invasion of Taiwan to work with minimal risk of excessive losses, they need to do it very quickly so that it's a fait accompli, minimizing the chance of any American response at all.

Unfortunately energy security is not on Taiwan's side during a blockade. We only have one active nuclear energy plant here, a bit of wind and solar, but mostly imported coal and LNG. I think electricity rationing would happen more or less immediately.

Re: TSMC expected to announce $100B investment in U.S.

#540

Post by nmeofthestate »

UltraSane wrote: post #495
nmeofthestate wrote: post #476

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can we really be sure what the new 2025 version of the US would do in such a scenario? I highly doubt the new US is going to intervene in defence of any of its erstwhile allies.

Trump's extreme unpredictability might actually be a advantage in this scenario.

I'm struggling to think of a time when his erratic behaviour has paid off in the geopolitical arena.
Post reply on HN