531–540 of 1001 posts
The people writing market commentary are simply making it up. The news about DeepSeek is not new and doesn't reduce the value of ASML. People are selling now because they are scared because the number went down.
>The people writing market commentary are simply making it up. Everyone except for you, right?
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Are you suggesting "AI madness" is a one time event that will not continue? AI is dramatically improving productivity and not just for developers. The "madness" will continue until every job is fully automated. That requires a lot of chips.
"AI", once we get there, is indeed the future and will continue to play an increasing role everywhere. But what happened to Nvidia profits last year is a one time event and will get back to normal sooner or later.
It is repeating this year as well, given all the announcements. So maybe it is a two time event? I think it could repeat every year as long as Nvidia continues to innovate and keep their lead.
DeepSeek is providing an efficiency boost, and that doesn't kill Nvidia. In fact, Nvidia themselves delivered an efficiency boost with Blackwell chips. DeepSeek is a one-time efficiency boost, but Nvidia will continue to boost efficiency every year, based on Moore's law.
Nvidia valuation = $3000B Nvidia profits during AI madness last year = $65B (last 4 quarters) Nvidia profits during normal year = $5B This stock could drop 90% from here, and still be expensive. The numbers are absolutely crazy and make no sense at all. Stargate project is aiming to invest $500B over 4 years. Those $500B are a pipe dream, but let's suppose for a second that all of that $500B will be Nvidia profits an…
> And you know what ? In that scenario Nvidia would STILL be overvalued by historical standards ! It would makes it's PE ratio about 24 (3000/(500/4)). AAPL's PE is about 36 at this moment. So no, not "overvalued by historical standards".
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But the SOTA models basically all suck today. If people don’t think they suck, definitely in 1 year they’ll look back and consider those older models unusably bad
I recently went to the LLM chat arena and tried my "test input" against the latest frontier models that GPT 3 failed on. This test snippet simply repeats the same four-letter word in a paragraph many times using all of its various possible meanings simultaneously. The request to the AI is to put the meaning of each usage of the word next to it in brackets. None of the frontier models can do this perfectly. They all s…
This sounds like fun. How does it do with an arbitrary quantity of "buffalo"s?
Is this Monday Black-ish?
IMO this is less about DeepSeek and more that Nvidia is essentially a bubble/meme stock that is divorced from the reality of finance and business. People/institutions who bought on nothing but hype are now panic selling. DeepSeek provided the spark, but that's all that was needed, just like how a vague rumor is enough to cause bank runs.
Not quite, I believe this sell off was caused by DeepSeek showing with their new model that the hardware demands of AI are not necessarily as high as everyone has assumed (as required by competing models). I've tried their 7b model, running locally on a 6gb laptop GPU. Its not fast, but the results I've had have rivaled GPT4. Its impressive.
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I think less of that and more of real risks - Nvidia legitimately has the earnings right now. The question is how sustainable that is, when most of it is coming from 5 or so customers that are both motivated and capable of taking back those 90% margins for themselves
They don't have anything close to the earnings to justify the price they have reached. They are getting a lot of money, but their stock price is in a completely different universe. Not even that $500G deal people announced, if spent exclusively on their products could justify their current price. (Nah, notice that just the change on their valuation is already larger than that deal.)
IMO this is less about DeepSeek and more that Nvidia is essentially a bubble/meme stock that is divorced from the reality of finance and business. People/institutions who bought on nothing but hype are now panic selling. DeepSeek provided the spark, but that's all that was needed, just like how a vague rumor is enough to cause bank runs.
This is a cookie cutter comment that appears to have been copy pasted from a thread about Gamestop or something. DeepSeek R1 allegedly being almost 50x more compute efficient isn't just a "vague rumor". You do this community a disservice by commenting before understanding what investors are thinking at the current moment.
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> PRC companies breaking US export control laws is legal So long as they don't plan to do any business with the US or any of their allies I guess.
Which allies? The ones the current US president is threatening in all sorts of manner? I actually hope he doubles down. I would love for EU to rely less on the US. It would also reduce the reach of the silly embargoes that benefit no one but the US.