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Learning to Reason with LLMs

openai.com

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Re: Learning to Reason with LLMs

#531

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The calculator didn’t eliminate math majors. Excel and accounting software didn’t eliminate accountants and CPAs. These are all just tools. I spend very little of my overall time at work actually coding. It’s a nice treat when I get a day where that’s all I do. From my limited work with Copilot so far, the user still needs to know what they’re doing. I have 0 faith a product owner, without a coding background, can us…

But excel eliminated need in multiple accountants. One accountant with excel replaced ten with paper. Chatgpt already eliminated many entry-level jobs like writer or illustrator. Instead of hiring multiple teams of developers, there will be one team with few seniors and multiple AI coding tools. Guess how depressing to the IT salaries it will be?

lol, my accountant is pretty darn expensive.

Re: Learning to Reason with LLMs

#533
Here's an unpopular take on this:

"We had the chance to make AI decision-making auditable but are locking ourselves out of hundreds of critical applications by not exposing the chain of thought."

One of the key blockers in many customer discussions I have is that AI models are not really auditable and that automating complex processes with them (let alone debug things when "reasoning" goes awry) is difficult if not impossible unless you do multi-shot and keep track of all the intermediate outputs.

I really hope they expose the chain of thought as some sort of machine-parsable output, otherwise no real progress will have been made (many benchmarks are not really significant when you try to apply LLMs to real-life applications and use cases...)

Re: Learning to Reason with LLMs

#534

> We have found that the performance of o1 consistently improves with more reinforcement learning (train-time compute) and with more time spent thinking (test-time compute). Wow. So we can expect scaling to continue after all. Hyperscalers feeling pretty good about their big bets right now. Jensen is smiling. This is the most important thing. Performance today matters less than the scaling laws. I think everyone has…

More, from an OpenAI employee:

> I really hope people understand that this is a new paradigm: don't expect the same pace, schedule, or dynamics of pre-training era. I believe the rate of improvement on evals with our reasoning models has been the fastest in OpenAI history.

> It's going to be a wild year.

https://x.com/willdepue/status/1834294935497179633

Re: Learning to Reason with LLMs

#535

Student here. Can someone give me one reason why I should continue in software engineering that isn't denial and hopium?

I am cautiously optimistic. So much of building software is deciding what _should_ be built rather than the mechanics of writing code.

I you like coding because of the things it lets you build, then LLMs are exciting because you can build those things faster.

If on the other hand you enjoy the mental challenge but aren't interested in the outputs, then I think the future is less bright for you.

Personally I enjoy coding for both reasons, but I'm happy to sacrifice the enjoyment and sense of accomplishment of solving hard problems myself if it means I can achieve more 'real world' outcomes.

Another thing I'm excited about is that, as models improve, it's like having an expert tutor on hand at all times. I've always wanted an expert programmer on hand to help when I get stuck, and to critically evaluate my work and help me improve. Increasingly, now I have one.

Re: Learning to Reason with LLMs

#536

The progress in AI is incredibly depressing, at this point I don't think there's much to look forward to in life. It's sad that due to unearned hubris and a complete lack of second-order thinking we are automating ourselves out of existence. EDIT: I understand you guys might not agree with my comments. But don't you thinking that flagging them is going a bit too far?

Not at all... they're still so incapable of so much. And even when they do advance, they can be tremendous tools of synthesis and thought at an unparalleled scale. "A good human plus a machine is the best combination" — Kasparov

It was for a while, look up "centaur" systems, that's the term in chess. Stockfish 17 rolls them every time.

Re: Learning to Reason with LLMs

#537

The "safety" example in the "chain-of-thought" widget/preview in the middle of the article is absolutely ridiculous. Take a step back and look at what OpenAI is saying here "an LLM giving detailed instructions on the synthesis of strychnine is unacceptable, here is what was previously generated vs our preferred, neutered content " What's this obsession with "safety" when it comes to LLMs? "This knowledge is perfectly…

"Safety" is a marketing technique that Sam Altman has chosen to use.

Journalists/media loved it when he said "GPT 2 might be too dangerous to release" - it got him a ton of free coverage, and made his company seem soooo cool. Harping on safety also constantly reinforces the idea that LLMs are fundamentally different from other text-prediction algorithms and almost-AGI - again, good for his wallet.

Re: Learning to Reason with LLMs

#539
I was a bit confused when looking at the English example for Chain-Of-Thought. It seems that the prompt is a bit messed up because the whole statement is bolded but it seems that only "appetite regulation is a field of staggering complexity" part should be bolded. Also that's how it shows up in the o1-preview response when you open the Chain of thought section.

Re: Learning to Reason with LLMs

#540

Student here. Can someone give me one reason why I should continue in software engineering that isn't denial and hopium?

Even if LLMs take over the bulk of programming work, somebody still needs to write the prompts, and make sure the output actually matches what you wanted to achieve. That's just programming with different tools.
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