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Mass timber is great, but it will not solve the housing shortage

construction-physics.com

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Re: Mass timber is great, but it will not solve the housing shortage

#531
post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Homelessness in San Francisco doesn't kill you from the elements in January or July. A homeless person in Minneapolis or Chicago in January may die from the elements on an excessively cold night. A homeless person in Arizona in July can also die from it being too hot. It's rarely ever too hot or too cold in costal California cities.

> Homelessness in San Francisco doesn't kill you from the elements in January or July. This would be equally true of other large cities in the southern half (including July for many), and none of them have anywhere near the same rate. Notwithstanding, northern cities have indoor shelters and if the cold mattered that much, the rates would be quite small, but they're not. In expensive cities like NY, homelessness rate…

https://www.axios.com/local/phoenix/2024/01/22/arizona-heat-...

> Between the lines: The county is also trying to address other health factors that put people at increased risk for heat illness or death, including drug use and unsheltered homelessness, by embedding social workers at cooling centers to help with finding housing and harm-reduction strategies, Sunenshine says.

> More than half of last year's heat deaths were people experiencing homelessness and two-thirds involved substance use, she said.

https://www.texastribune.org/2024/01/12/texas-heat-deaths-20...

> Green was among the 334 people in Texas who died from heat in 2023, according to data compiled by the Texas Department of State Health Services between Jan. 1 and Nov. 30.

> The heat killed more Texans in 2023 than any other year on record, according to the figures, which are not yet final. The state’s heat-related death records began in 1989.

> Heat-related deaths are typically associated with a secondary factor such as mobility problems, mental illness, drug and alcohol use or homelessness that prevents people from escaping extreme heat, Dwyer said. That’s one reason why elderly people have a higher risk of heat-related death, she said.

https://kffhealthnews.org/news/article/heat-related-deaths-i...

California has 4.2 heat related deaths per million. (all of California - including Fresno).

Arizona has 71.9 heat related deaths per million.

Texas is 6.7.

San Francisco had the third lowest ER room encounters for heat related emergencies at 5.1 per 100,000 residents (it was behind Marin and Santa Clara).

While hot weather in San Francisco should not be ignored, it is no where near the mortality rate that is seen in other southern cities.

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You cannot have the same rates of unhoused people (note: using unhoused here because a person who is homeless living in a hotel room is homeless, but not unhoused) in northern cities because you will die in Minneapolis in the winter if you don't have a place to stay.

https://www.sf.gov/sites/default/files/2023-07/2023%20Homele...

San Francisco has 887 homeless people per 100k residents. Boston has 657. Denver has 670. Minneapolis has 209. Chicago has 141. I'll also draw special attention to page 9 with the percent of the population that is unsheltered.

The unsheltered per 100,000 residents:

    San Francisco 420
    Denver        184
    Boston         18
    Chicago        46
    Minneapolis    38 
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Specifically regarding mental illness and heat - https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/interacti...

Re: Mass timber is great, but it will not solve the housing shortage

#533

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What a dystopic vision, living in 50sqm pods and having our basic needs attended to by market participants, eschewing all self-reliance.

> eschewing all self-reliance that's the thing though, the suburban/rural individual house lifestyle is a a bit of a cosplay self-reliance - it's completely dependent on someone else providing you with staggering quantities of fossil fuels

No one is more reliant on other people than someone living on a farm or out in the middle of nowhere. This is why rural neighbors are often so friendly. When something goes wrong you only have each other.

Suburbia relies almost entirely on urban centers or something like a military base or university to survive. I remember when Bill Clinton closed March Air Force Base in California and the city surrounding it died like a plant that was watered using bleach.

Re: Mass timber is great, but it will not solve the housing shortage

#534
post #450

I think this article is a great example of how technical people have become so intoxicated by the relatively few instances in which an advance in technology has genuinely solved an entrenched social or power problem by making a new thing possible or reducing costs that they basically only argue in those terms The fact is, the housing crisis is and always was a policy failure and a "distributional outcomes" issue, and…

I hope we can be better about addressing issues like this. Taxing empty houses, like most negative incentives, fails to address the existing incentives that cause the problem in the first place which will lead to different market imbalances.

The biggest challenge we face is that the best way to protect wealth is to own assets and properties are assets we can live in. If wealth didn't naturally sublimate this would be less of an issue. Likewise if it were easier to protect wealth by doing something productive, it would happen.

Re: Mass timber is great, but it will not solve the housing shortage

#535
post #454
post #350

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Denser housing sounds good in theory; I support it myself and vote accordingly. The problem is that it comes with other people . The more immediate neighbors you have, the greater the risk that one of them will be an antisocial asshole who makes life hell for everyone else. You're going to occasionally get drug dealers (or other habitual criminals), aggressive dog owners, serious mental illness cases, couples that ha…

American apartments are horrible. However, that isn't a problem with dense housing itself so much as how our cities are built.

I don't understand your comment. Changing how cities are built won't prevent antisocial people from moving in next door. That's more of a social policy and law enforcement issue than an urban planning issue.

Re: Mass timber is great, but it will not solve the housing shortage

#536
post #492

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those amenities are rarely used in North America. The problem is zoning, fire, and building codes make it impractical to build a bunch of 2.2k square foot units instead of the current mix of 500, 700 and 900 square foot units. Double stairway requirements are a big onerous regulation, especially when we already mandate sprinklers. What we need for families are more developments like the interwar upper west side in NY…

Double stairways and building code requirements don't seem terribly onerous to me. However, the parking minimums and traffic flow requirements do. In Dallas, each 500 square feet of a unit is required to have a parking space... A parking space takes up 300 square feet on average. This means your apartments are at LEAST 3/5 parking. This means you get complexes like this one where it's more parking lot than housing an…

The double stair means there is no practical way to make a four bedroom. try doing a layout and you discover you have a lot of space that isn't useful. (bedrooms require a window)

Re: Mass timber is great, but it will not solve the housing shortage

#537

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is your reasoning here? Cities are 'bad' from something as minor as that? We all deal with things we dislike, such as stoplights, rain, or bad news on TV. Let's not even start on traffic! Where will you find this idyllic place to call home? FWIW, it might be alien at first but there's nothing to be afraid of from people who want some food, any more than from anyone else. That is based on long experience with zer…

> there's nothing to be afraid of from people who want some food not OP but FWIW my roommate was followed into an ATM vestibule while depositing his (5 figure) casino winnings, begged at aggressively, and then the destitute person kicked his suitcase, I'd say that's definitely something to be afraid of. now I don't use ATMs with people sleeping in the vestibule.

> now I don't use ATMs with people sleeping in the vestibule.

Yeah, I don't do that either. It's possible I don't have problems because I don't do stupid sh-t, but that goes for most things in life. When I cross the street, I watch the cars to see if they're stopping and don't just assume they will obey the lights (and that I read the lights correctly). When Covid struck, I kept my distance from people whether or not someone required me to.

I don't know what happened with your roommmate - that would be pretty alarming. There's no way someone is following me into an isolated ATM vestibule; I just keep walking if there's a question. And I'm not pulling out that kind of money anywhere but a bank teller window.

Re: Mass timber is great, but it will not solve the housing shortage

#538
post #476

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right... agreed, but what? Are you not following the argument? Austin is on the exact same trajectory as the West Coast. It's just about 10-15 years behind.

No, it isn’t, because Austin allows building to keep up with demand. The policy failures of West Coast states aren’t a law of nature; they’re policy failures.

>No, it isn’t, because Austin allows building to keep up with demand. The policy failures of West Coast states aren’t a law of nature; they’re policy failures.

The policy of building out is a law of nature, simply because it is impractical and unaffordable to upgrade the transportation infrastructure. The only real development you're getting in Austin is vertical construction downtown (which is net good for affordability), and then you're filling in the remaining wilderness east of Austin (Manor, Webberville, and the area out to Bastrop).

That's the last remaining unconsumed land that is viable for commuting, as the highways are already overcapacity out to Leander, Georgetown, Buda, and nearly Dripping Springs along the Mopac and 35 corridors.

If Austin starts building multi-family homes in existing SFH neighborhoods, then more power to them.

Re: Mass timber is great, but it will not solve the housing shortage

#539
post #301

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can easily get housing affordability crises even without single family homes, as is plainly evident right now in non-North-American cities. It's a bit of a red herring. You end up sitting in traffic for an hour instead of standing on a bus or train for an hour for your commute, and other knock-on differences like that, which can be debated for various other reasons like ecological impact, but you still end up run…

You don't sit on the train for an hour. In properly designed large cities the metro beats the car by a huge time margin unless they made cars so expensive by policy that nobody has a car and there is no traffic at that city as a result. Americans often think the shitty experience they have in their country applies universally. Ex: The bus & light rail is bad and slow, so therefore it will always be bad everywhere. Am…

Metros are pretty slow. 20mph/30kph is about par, less if the stops are spaced closely, more if they're further apart. If you factor in time to walk to and from the metro, and time waiting for your train, you can almost always beat them with a bike. Here's a chart of a few systems [1]. Where the larger European cities do better is the density -- what you mostly care about in a city is how many people you can reach in a reasonable amount of time, say 30-60 minutes. In the Bay Area, I can, with my car, reach about 3 million people in 60 minutes, about the same as I could using transit in Berlin, which has an excellent metro system, and Berlin doesn't have to deal with the geographic barriers that the Bay Area does.

I think that shared ride self driving cars have a lot of potential in both types of cities. They give you a lot of what's good about private cars (door to door, good average speed, comfort, some privacy), and a lot of what's good about metros (higher density on the road than private cars due to sharing and less need for parking)

[1] https://www.reddit.com/r/transit/comments/113n0ee/average_sp...

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