Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Even cheaper: don't have computer driven transit, but human driven transit Cheaper on what time frame? Obviously the upfront R&D costs start out as more expensive, but the marginal cost goes toward 0 while human cost is flat/increases. Also cheaper isn't the only axis, safety is a big reason to invest in not having humans drive.
Paying humans have better utility, for society in whole, than cheap machines.
Cruise is opening driverless cars to the public in San Francisco
531–540 of 652 posts
Re: Cruise is opening driverless cars to the public in San Francisco
#532Earlier quoted context omitted.
Cruise CEO here. Our strategy has been to solve the challenges needed to operate driverless robotaxis on a well-equipped vehicle, then aggressively drive the cost down. Many OEMs are doing this in reverse order. They're trying to squeeze orders of magnitude of performance gains out of really low-cost hardware. Today it's unclear what strategy will win. In a few years our next generation of low-cost compute and sensin…
It's good to hear a CEO say "we don't know the answer, but we're making a bet" rather than the typical Elizabeth Holmes style "We are absolutely correct and first they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you get convicted of three counts of wire fraud and go to prison".
Re: Cruise is opening driverless cars to the public in San Francisco
#533Earlier quoted context omitted.
The real equation is closer to: Radar + LIDAR + Vision + Cost + Latency - Battery Doing it with vision only saves on cost, latency & energy consumption.
I agree it saves on cost and energy consumption. Not sure about latency. But it's an inferior sensing system [and] it remains to be seen whether it can do the job or not, so far seems like not. Even if it can do the job (by some measure) whether it can outperform the better sensing systems which seems unlikely. I'd pay a little more for better safety, we know the cost of "human safety" as it reflects in our insurance…
It's not just about paying more dollars, but also range.
You're assuming that a dual system will be safer, but what if such systems are more prone to perception confusion, or other anomalies?
Even if a dual system were safer, it doesn't make sense to say that you will pay for safety absolutely. For example, you can always add an additional smoke alarm to your house for some marginal improvement in safety, but at some point most people decide they are safe enough.
Re: Cruise is opening driverless cars to the public in San Francisco
#534Earlier quoted context omitted.
> note, we both know that it is possible AND this doesn't require AGI Not who you're replying to and not saying you're wrong, but how do we know this?
We know in a sense that very simple animals do it and it doesn’t require decision making (in a sense that LiDAR only helps with perception).
Re: Cruise is opening driverless cars to the public in San Francisco
#535Earlier quoted context omitted.
What’s your view on whether self-driving cars should automatically be 100% liable for any accidents? I ask this in the context of machines being governed by classical deterministic physics, so there is an argument that there is no such thing as an accident involving a self-driving car: only a design flaw. This is a genuine question, as I can see that companies with self-driving systems that work, and who do serious f…
Of course, knowing that self-driving cars are 100% liable would incentivize some people to attempt to be hit by one of these vehicles for a payout. A more realistic level of liability would be for 100% liability for accidents resulting from an "unforced error".
Re: Cruise is opening driverless cars to the public in San Francisco
#536Earlier quoted context omitted.
That doesn't help with end of service life, it helps with uneven wear. If all the tires wear evenly this detection won't help.
Was editing my comment while you were commenting (removed service life, as software won’t detect dry rot or other defects undetectable from wheel speed measurements). Assuming tires wear evenly, you could still detect the change in rotation speed over time due to tread wear.
Remember that wheel slip depends on surface properties.
Re: Cruise is opening driverless cars to the public in San Francisco
#537Earlier quoted context omitted.
Of course, knowing that self-driving cars are 100% liable would incentivize some people to attempt to be hit by one of these vehicles for a payout. A more realistic level of liability would be for 100% liability for accidents resulting from an "unforced error".
I still think the cars should anticipate risks and behave accordingly. Out and out fraud aside, they should basically never injure anyone.
For one thing electric cars are too quiet.
There should be a law that someone with a bell has to walk in front of the car to let people know it is coming
Re: Cruise is opening driverless cars to the public in San Francisco
#538Earlier quoted context omitted.
The challenge I like to bring up is construction zones. How will cars cope when a road is unexpectedly under repair? Traffic is taking turns sharing the left shoulder with a flag man directing you? Some people I've talked to insist that an up to date map is "all that's needed" and that all such projects will need to be put in the system. Haha, a water main broke and they think people are going to update a database fo…
A decent chunk of this list can be handled by the car coming to a safe stop and signalling that it is unable to proceed and you need to navigate the situation. I suspect a lot of these could also be handled by that being a remote connection where a human is given the camera input and can indicate how the car should proceed (i.e. broken water main is a road obstruction that won't clear, and the obvious answer is a man…
Re: Cruise is opening driverless cars to the public in San Francisco
#539Earlier quoted context omitted.
Cruise CEO here. Our strategy has been to solve the challenges needed to operate driverless robotaxis on a well-equipped vehicle, then aggressively drive the cost down. Many OEMs are doing this in reverse order. They're trying to squeeze orders of magnitude of performance gains out of really low-cost hardware. Today it's unclear what strategy will win. In a few years our next generation of low-cost compute and sensin…
No, the different strategies are that Tesla has a vehicle actually being used by hundreds of thousands of people and is slowly incrementally improving their self driving with massive amounts of feedback and data, while these demo companies are doing if statements around the block.
Re: Cruise is opening driverless cars to the public in San Francisco
#540Based on this image: https://images.ctfassets.net/95kuvdv8zn1v/6h1C7lPC79OLOlddEE... They and their VC backers are clearly betting on the concept that radars + lidar + imaging will be the ultimate successful solution in full self driving cars, as a completely opposite design and engineering philosophy from Tesla attempting to do "full self driving" with camera sensors and categorical rejection of lidar. It is interes…
Cruise CEO here. Our strategy has been to solve the challenges needed to operate driverless robotaxis on a well-equipped vehicle, then aggressively drive the cost down. Many OEMs are doing this in reverse order. They're trying to squeeze orders of magnitude of performance gains out of really low-cost hardware. Today it's unclear what strategy will win. In a few years our next generation of low-cost compute and sensin…
> Our strategy has been to solve the challenges needed to operate driverless robotaxis on a well-equipped vehicle, then aggressively drive the cost down.
There are broadly two ways to achieve your desired outcome of aggressively lower costs:
1. use money raised from VCs to subsidize the final cost of the product, or;
2. use money earned from customers as a natural consequence of growing demand for your product, in spite of strong competition from established OEMs, to fund your expansion.
Historically, the former has a lower likelihood of success relative to the latter and that’s because the former is really just a cash transfer from VCs to consumers. The latter is how Apple and Tesla have been able to grow into what they are today.
The reason the 2nd kind is so effective is that, when executed correctly, it often leads to a vicious cycle: your growth will lead to steadily increasing order volumes with your suppliers. This will in turn lead to sourcing for more suppliers to keep up with your growth. At a certain point, a supplier will feel confident that you are here for the long haul, causing them to take on more risk by pouring additional capital into their business to expand capacity. This will improve their ability to accommodate your current and future needs quickly, cheaply or both.
In other words, reality is multidimensional. It is rare for an individual company to aggressively drive down the costs of its product single-handedly, unless that company is ready to assume an enormous amount of risk currently being borne by its ecosystem of partners and suppliers.