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What caused all the supply chain bottlenecks?

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Re: What caused all the supply chain bottlenecks?

#531

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even if you are right, what would be your solution? I mean, the problem is not that we lack transparency, but that we have run out of options to fight the bottlenecks. Having some stockpiles as buffers would be one options to fight the problem.

The solution is to wait. It's better to wait out very rare events than to waste constantly during normal periods. Very few people _need_ to have their new GPU or PS5 right now.

Well, as long as it is just about luxury goods like the PS5 waiting is certainly an an option. But what about healthcare equipment? Would you still argue that waiting is the solution if it would mean that people die in hospitals because the hospitals cant get the required equipment?

In addition, the supply chain problems are not just about chips. To my knowledge, they affect nearly every product that is being produced in the far east (China, Bangladesh, etc.). A few weeks ago I wanted to buy a blue suit and I got lucky: I could choose from a wide range of exactly one suit.

So yes, who cares about suits? But I wonder which essential things are unavailable currently.

Re: What caused all the supply chain bottlenecks?

#532
post #264

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even if you are right, what would be your solution? I mean, the problem is not that we lack transparency, but that we have run out of options to fight the bottlenecks. Having some stockpiles as buffers would be one options to fight the problem.

Is there even a better solution than to let the current supply chain issues play out? The status quo with supply chains and manufacturing is there for a reason, silicon in particular reflects its boom bust cycle as well as the absurd costs of CapEx. I think people are reaching when they table the hypothesis that current supply chain issues are due to mistakes or mismanagement of some middle manager, in some corporati…

Sure, waiting is an option. But I wonder which other options are available in the long term. We talked about stockpiling. But how about rearranging the supply chains? Distribute the production of products? Shortening the supply chains? Estabilishing multiple cheap transport routes? etc.

Re: What caused all the supply chain bottlenecks?

#533

All of this talk about supply chain issues are totally missing the point in my opinion. So many articles (and tweet chains I guess) have been written about supply chain issues, yet every one of them seems to ignore the elephant in the room which is demand for goods vs services. Over the course of the pandemic there was a staggering re-balancing of consumer spending [0] from services to goods, to which supply chains h…

It has nothing to do with spending. This whole problem stems from shutting countries down. Now it's all stacked up ready to go back into the economy, but we can't move fast enough. In time it will iron itself out, but high oil prices don't help, empty shipping containers stacked up don't help, the ports only working 8 hours don't help. It's a bunch of little stuff that added up to make a major problem.

Re: What caused all the supply chain bottlenecks?

#534
post #45

The buried lede is an assertion that a tax on unrealized capital gains will cause reduced private ownership of large companies, resulting in a reduced ability to handle 100-year flood events. Along the way, there are a bunch of other assertions that serve as prerequisites, like the idea that these companies can cultivate better employee loyalty and plan for longer horizons. How much do we know about how true that is,…

Looks like that won't be in the bill.

But it's critical to note that the proposal has different rules for privately held stock & real estate. So the tweet author's buried argument doesn't hold water.

I believe those assets would mostly be treated the same as they currently are, e.g. sold or death.

For the 700 or so people who are targeted it basically creates a tax on the collateralized loans they get to avoid selling stock/cap gains in the first place. While not doing that directly, that's the effect of it.

And they get 5 years to pay the initial bill. 23.8% / 5 = 4.7% growth a year to be even (well something like 6 or 7 adding the new annual 23%). Most of these guys will likely generate more on paper profit than and they get deductions for any losses if they don't

It's what pisses me off most about the proposed Purdue Sackler settlement. Giving billionaires such long lead times to pay off fines and taxes allows them make more money than they owe.

The last graph on the WSJ article though says “Smart investment bankers and asset managers are already thinking about how to financially engineer products that will emulate existing stocks but be hard to value”

Check out the 2nd link for Pandora Paper reporting showing one egregious example of how they take advantage of this.

The owner of Nike puts millions of nike stock into a GRAT, which is privately held, and then the government gives that grat a 15% discount before it's passed along to his children.

Shouldn't get tax benefits for something that you claim is harder to sell (privately held stock) when in actuality the assets are 100% publicly traded nike stock.

The Wyden tax bill is a 100 pages long so maybe it goes after some of that crud, but there will always a scheme to lower your taxes.

https://archive.md/W2074 https://archive.md/yN7M7

Re: What caused all the supply chain bottlenecks?

#535
post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My dad worked on some testing software for a float glass factory back in the 1980s. Float glass is a process where a factory makes a continuous sheet of glass that floats on a river of molten tin, about 3 meters wide, 24 hours a day. It never stops. If it does then the glass cools down and solidifies inside the machinery, and the factory needs to be practically scrapped and rebuilt. I imagine that's the worst case sc…

> It never stops. If it does then the glass cools down and solidifies inside the machinery That's why you can't just flip a switch to turn it off. But what if you stop feeding glass in and wait half a day first?

I don't know. I imagine it takes a lot longer than that to cool down though, ans perhaps you can't run the machinery without glass in it to take the heat away?

Re: What caused all the supply chain bottlenecks?

#536
The port congestion problem comes partly from incoming traffic being up while outgoing traffic is flat or down. Port Hueneme in Ventura County, CA, is a major agricultural export port. They have enough outgoing traffic to keep full containers going out, and they're not overloaded. Nor are they choked with empties.

Freightwaves has good coverage of this issue.[2] Comments from people who are working to fix the problem.

There's a startup working on this, "Container-Xchange".[3] They're trying to connect people with empties with people who want containers. Their site is funny to read, because it's designed like a B2C site, aimed at a B2B industry. "100% free and no credit card required". "Grow your network in container logistics." You can just see the VC pitch deck: "Uber for containers". Their competitor, MatchBox [4], seems to be further along. At least their list of partners includes major shipping lines. But they're still thinking B2C. "5 free bookings for referring one person".

What they're both trying to do is create something like the settlements system US railroads have for boxcars, which makes them mostly interchangeable regardless of who owns them. But those startups are working from a position of far less strength than the Association of American Railroads. The startups have to get container owners and users to sign up, and there are lots of players. Even then they mostly make bilateral swaps. One outcome of this empty container mess may be some major ports saying "look, you want to park an empty at this port, you have to sign up with the settlements system so we can send it out".

[1] https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2021/10/17/port-huenemep...

[2] https://www.freightwaves.com/news/viewpoint-la-empty-contain...

[3] https://container-xchange.com/

[4] https://matchboxexchange.com/partners/

Re: What caused all the supply chain bottlenecks?

#537

The port congestion problem comes partly from incoming traffic being up while outgoing traffic is flat or down. Port Hueneme in Ventura County, CA, is a major agricultural export port. They have enough outgoing traffic to keep full containers going out, and they're not overloaded. Nor are they choked with empties. Freightwaves has good coverage of this issue.[2] Comments from people who are working to fix the problem…

I prefer shopping for B2C anyway, regardless of if I'm acting as a B or C. If I look at the pricing of something, and they have a "contact us" form, I leave.

Re: What caused all the supply chain bottlenecks?

#538
post #454
post #256

This is like a Rorschach test. There is truly something for everyone. What caused all the supply chains bottlenecks? Hard Left: "It's the fault of *capitalism*!" Hard Right: "It's the fault of *unions*!" Soft Left: "Truckers don't have a living wage!" Soft Right: "We stopped producing because of lockdowns!" Greens: "It's *climate change* disrupting the economy!" Libertarians: "*Government mismanagement of ports!*" YI…

In the UK, we like to say it's due to Brexit. Not saying it is or it isn't by the way.

Or the evil EU.

Re: What caused all the supply chain bottlenecks?

#539
post #489

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“ Also, you'd have to provide a tax shield for the losses as well.” Not really. My car is losing 10% of its value each year but nobody is returning me the sales tax I paid for the full price. Let alone returning me some of lost value. Why if your stock depreciates do I have to compensate you?

Say you bought a vintage car -- do you have to pay more sales tax each time the car appreciates? I know some owners of FJ Cruisers that would be pretty upset.

>Say you bought a vintage car -- do you have to pay more sales tax each time the car appreciates?

Some states and countries actually do tax personal property like cars. Virginia and Rhode Island, for example.

In those jurisdictions, if you have a vintage car in 2021 worth $100k, then you pay $100k * TAX_RATE in 2021. If the value of your car jumps up to $200k in 2022 (due to a movie or something), then you pay $200k * TAX_RATE in 2022. As long as the property is still in your possession, you pay property tax on it.

Re: What caused all the supply chain bottlenecks?

#540
post #419

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You cannot tax an asset that does not move. Property tax taxes an asset that doesn't move, literally and figuratively. Before financial markets exploded, and especially in agrarian societies like the United States at its founding, a property tax was effectively a wealth tax. (It still is a wealth tax, technically speaking, it just no longer reaches the wealth of the richest in society.) > In what intervals would yo…

Well in an agrarian society property produce money though, right?

Today, landowners gain significant wealth through rent and speculation.
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