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Five Oregon counties vote to leave state, create 'Greater Idaho'

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Re: Five Oregon counties vote to leave state, create 'Greater Idaho'

#531

Post by smaryjerry »

dumbfoundded wrote: post #237
smaryjerry wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This assumes all votes were based on race and that voting for a white person makes you racist and voting for a black person makes you not racist. There is just so much wrong with that.

Your response is disgustingly incorrect. President Obama's election as the first black president certainly included significant racial elements. When comparing it to Clinton vs Dole in 1996, Clinton lost the white vote 42% to 44% (1). Obama lost the white vote 43% to 55% (2). Both Clinton and Obama won by 8% differences. Yes, not voting for the black candidate over the white candidate doesn't make you racist. But to…

Your are overlooking a few big factor. Those are two completely different people, from different states with different policies, against different candidates, and at different times. Yet you are claiming race was the biggest factor in their voting differences with zero evidence.

Re: Five Oregon counties vote to leave state, create 'Greater Idaho'

#532

Post by nverno »

legitster wrote: post #492

I think it's interesting that the actual proposal is RIFE with some really, really bad analysis: https://www.greateridaho.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Grea... The best example is how they treat averages: As part of their "win-win" scenario: the new average income for the state of Oregon would rise. As if individuals would actually directly benefit from the average arbitrarily going up. Inversely, one of the benefit…

I get the feeling the people behind the proposal aren't doing it for political gain. It sounds like they are fully resigned to their group's lack of political power in the region, and just want some respite.

Less competitive elections sound great to me. That would imply that whoever won would have good majority support and maybe politics would fade into the background where it belongs.

Re: Five Oregon counties vote to leave state, create 'Greater Idaho'

#533

Post by halostatue »

fyijbxmuyidudm wrote: post #174
schaefer wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can I just say, for me the use of the term "illegals" under the section of Law and Order comes across as a dehumanizing slur. how unfortunate.

Illegals is, of course, a shorthand for illegal alien. The shorthand was created because of the regularity of having to describe such an individual. In what way could someone describe the reality of "a person who has violated international border agreements and is residing in a country in violation of the laws of that country" that you would not consider dehumanizing?

People can’t be illegal. They can be in the country without proper documentation. The _correct_ and _humane_ term is “undocumented”.

Re: Five Oregon counties vote to leave state, create 'Greater Idaho'

#534

Post by smaryjerry »

renewiltord wrote: post #280
smaryjerry wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This assumes all votes were based on race and that voting for a white person makes you racist and voting for a black person makes you not racist. There is just so much wrong with that.

It doesn't assume anything. It registers evidence for one hypothesis over another. If the evidence doesn't move your priors at all, then you're not thinking rationally. Of course there are other factors as well (which perhaps dominate), the strictness of the Dem/Rep split, etc. but this one piece of evidence should move you in the direction described.

That isn’t evidence for anyone voting based on race or that Oregon having more whites voting for a black person makes them less racist. Just being a different color has absolutely nothing to do with any of their qualifications, policies, personality, opponent, and more. Assuming race is the biggest factor based on the voters race and the candidates race is extremely racist in itself. An outcome alone based on race doesn’t determine the motive of voters. Even just candidates campaigning in a specific area would result in very different numbers.

Re: Five Oregon counties vote to leave state, create 'Greater Idaho'

#535

Post by rootusrootus »

TigeriusKirk wrote: post #443
rootusrootus wrote: post #409

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's pretty messy and would need to have some constitutional support drawn up. E.g. you probably wouldn't do it by county per se, it might be better to make it work by congressional district.

County borders make much more sense. Congressional district boundaries change much more often. They also mean nothing to people in terms of their geographic identity. No one says, "Oh yeah, I live over in the 13th District."

A properly drawn congressional boundary should have a predictable number of citizens, however. Arbitrarily choosing county boundaries (and why county boundaries instead of some other method?) would probably upset the balance of population and require reallocation of representatives. Or maybe the price of seceding from your state is that you don't get to take the representation with you and therefore must wait until the next census to clear it up.

Re: Five Oregon counties vote to leave state, create 'Greater Idaho'

#536

Post by rootusrootus »

nickff wrote: post #480
rootusrootus wrote: post #405

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What happens when you get down to the last county and they also want to join another state?

If there were a one-county state, it would benefit from so much graft that they'd never join anyone else. Imagine having two senators, one congressman, and three electoral votes, all in one county! Every presidential candidate would stop there and promise them the moon!

I imagine the first time a county successfully split to join another state, a lot of states would just abolish counties altogether. Then everyone can be in a one-county state...

Re: Five Oregon counties vote to leave state, create 'Greater Idaho'

#537

Post by Spooky23 »

legitster wrote: post #492

I think it's interesting that the actual proposal is RIFE with some really, really bad analysis: https://www.greateridaho.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Grea... The best example is how they treat averages: As part of their "win-win" scenario: the new average income for the state of Oregon would rise. As if individuals would actually directly benefit from the average arbitrarily going up. Inversely, one of the benefit…

People who are into this sort of thing are typically not so good at analysis.

Every few years some Republican assemblyman proposes splitting “downstate” NY from “upstate”. (itself a matter of debate in some quarters)

It gets some play with the AM radio crowd, than someone shows the guy the math, and they go back to some other issue.

Re: Five Oregon counties vote to leave state, create 'Greater Idaho'

#538

Post by amanaplanacanal »

thepasswordis wrote: post #168
pchristensen wrote: post #161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To take this view you've shared charitably, what would "Those people in the middle of the country" who keep up from starving want in order to be satisfied with ... life? America? whatever bothers them about the current arrangement?

To be clear: these aren't my views. I live on the Coast, and probably work at the same company some of you guys work at. I just also happen to have close friends who live outside of the bubble we all inhabit. They think that they want to be left alone. They don't want what they perceive as coastal values forced upon their kids in school.

What values would those be?

Re: Five Oregon counties vote to leave state, create 'Greater Idaho'

#539

Post by zepto »

nverno wrote: post #532
legitster wrote: post #492

I think it's interesting that the actual proposal is RIFE with some really, really bad analysis: https://www.greateridaho.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Grea... The best example is how they treat averages: As part of their "win-win" scenario: the new average income for the state of Oregon would rise. As if individuals would actually directly benefit from the average arbitrarily going up. Inversely, one of the benefit…

I get the feeling the people behind the proposal aren't doing it for political gain. It sounds like they are fully resigned to their group's lack of political power in the region, and just want some respite. Less competitive elections sound great to me. That would imply that whoever won would have good majority support and maybe politics would fade into the background where it belongs.

Like in Russia or China?

Re: Five Oregon counties vote to leave state, create 'Greater Idaho'

#540

Post by amanaplanacanal »

zdragnar wrote: post #447
newacct583 wrote: post #374

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But the track record is so poor, and there is such little transparency, that they have no trust whatsoever. The track record of... Medicare? It's one of the most popular programs in government! What you've done is just aborb spin. It's true that these people don't trust "The Government" to provide health care, because their thought leaders (and peers like you) keep telling them that. But then they go and enroll in…

There is no alternative to Medicare given the risk profile for the elderly. It has high approval because there is no other option . It is also not universally accepted- this is only anecdotal, of course, but I had a doctor tell me he didnt accept it because the rates for some procedures worked out to be below the state's hourly minimum wage. Perhaps a better example would be the VA- government run hospitals and cover…

So if we get rid of Medicare, do you think private insurance would step into the gap and the elderly would then have better health care?
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