531–540 of 688 posts
I just wanted to be able to buy a GPU without paying exorbitant prices because miners.
https://videocardz.com/newz/msi-confirms-geforce-rtx-3080-ti...
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Can't you say the same for bitcoin? Anyone can make a bitcoin clone, just like anyone can code a ridesharing app in a hackathon, but your clone isn't going to be the one recognized by everyone.
But crypto clones are much easier to create and have adopted than a company with real infra. The phenomenon of “this coin is too expensive let’s buy this new one hoping it’ll moon” is very real in crypto and encourages the creation of clones. Then miners then trivially shift their hash power to whatever clone gets the crowd interested.
Agreed.
> and have adopted than a company with real infra
Disagreed. Cloning is super-easy, adoption is super-hard.
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The problem is that it's global and irrevocable: mistakes and intentional linkages act as a ratchet increasingly deanonymizing the network over time. If it started to have real usage, you'd quickly see the equivalent of the credit card / scoring companies, Google, etc. paying merchants for transaction details and building a web of user information.
Ooof. That is a great second-order observation: agencies profiling you and making lifer harder or easier based on your blockchain history. Not like this is new, as you point out, just even more difficult to expunge: there's no "blockchain" to expunge your blockchain habits! (yet??? I think I have a new startup idea for blockchain ... /bangsheadagainstwall/)
For blockchains in particular I think we tend underestimate the amount of information which someone with that kind of analytic capacity could derive, especially if they also have other data sources — for example, I would be quite surprised if the various anonymity schemes are less effective when evaluated as part of a full system against someone who has a lot of visibility into web activity (Google Analytics, Facebook beacons), DNS, email, etc.
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But you can get out of bitcoin at any time by selling it so it fails that test.
But selling Bitcoin is _exactly_ an older investor being paid out by a newer investor. IMO it's Bitcoin in combination with Tether that's the actual Ponzi. Unfortunately unlikely to unwind until and unless people start needing to redeem Tether rather than selling it on.
Bingo.
The problem is, the big players have no interest in unwinding the scheme. As long as exchanges can wash trade USDT:BTC to drive the inflow of retail investment, things keep going.
What'll be interesting is if BTC continues to fall. I think the low $30k is a support level; if it crashes below that, I bet we're going to see more outflow from undercapitalized exchanges and things will adjust hard.
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The argument is that crypto has little to no intrinsic value and the price is being moved by speculation. In that case, the value comes from how many other speculators are willing to speculate in your currency - more options means fewer dollars buying bitcoin. The fact that pretty much every crypto of non-trivial float trades in lock step with BTC definitely supports the "no intrinsic value" theory.
Sounds like two separate arguments, I don't really see the through line. The value of BTC comes from the mining security, and you cannot mine multiple chains at once with the same hardware. > The fact that pretty much every crypto of non-trivial float trades in lock step with BTC definitely supports the "no intrinsic value" theory. They are highly correlated but certainly not lock step, see the 1 month ETH/BTC chart.…
I used to be excited to see crypto currency related threads on HN's front page, bc I would be excited to see the technical discussion about he merits and criticisms of the technology. Nowadays, I am just disappointed when the discourse devolves into politics, cultism (on both sides), and misinformation. Where could I go to see discussions about just the technology?
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I agree. But also try taking a step back: why are they gambling? Sure, greed is ever-present in human history—that's a given. But also listen to the doubt in the present establishment. I know what it's like to be poor and what the banks do to you in that state. It doesn't surprise me in the slightest that there's so much being thrown at it. The chances of and potential returns are almost guaranteed better than a savi…
Almost guaranteed? If one put all that money into S&P indexes instead of coin, they'd be up 20% versus betting on crazy coin returns. Most people aren't equipped to handle the volatility of the coin market and most people don't understand that you don't actually lose until you realize losses. Therein creates almost more guaranteed stress than actually making money, as we're seeing now with all the bag holders from th…
Most people also aren't equipped to see their savings reduce in real value every month. This is a global phenomenon, not one isolated to first-world subdivisions.
You seem to be mistaking my seeking the reason why people might do what appears [to you and many others] to be such a wildly irrational thing to do. I'm arguing it's not irrational in their case, but one of the most rational things one can do as someone without much means when faced with the ready alternatives. It becomes no surprise.
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if crypto is a ponzi scheme, then isn't cash also a ponzi scheme? cash can become just as worthless, when no one believes in it anymore, just ask zimbabwae. personally, if i'm going to be in a ponzi scheme, at the very least I want something with a limited supply. Also, what other option do we have for store of value? Equities are way overvalued beyond reason. Fixed income/cash are becoming worthless very quickly. re…
How're you getting to 5% loss YoY due to inflation? Estimates on inflation for the USD rarely top 3% for years during the last few decades [0]. Certainly there might be an uptick this year but extrapolating that to "You'll lose 10k a year if you just hold 200k" doesn't really make sense. And certainly you'd hold that money in index funds which have pretty decent returns or even bonds which don't pay out so much these…
So, we've already got 3-4% inflation for the last 20 years. Now with the official CPI almost 2% higher than last year, it means real inflation is probably 2% higher as well. 3% + 2% = 5%
Treasuries are at about 1 - 2% and unless you hold the actual treasury, you're taking a pretty big risk if you're going into the TLT right now with very little upside gain.
European bonds are negative.
The highest yielding bonds, aka junk bonds are returning 3-5% but those will dip nearly as hard as stocks when things get ugly (look at the last two crashes 2020, 2018), so you might as well hold stocks.
Stocks are at record high valuations according to the warren buffet indicator.
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You can criticize crypto currency’s for a lot but I still have never seen a good argument for it being a ponzi scheme. Can someone further this argument to one that wouldn't cover every investment asset?
If no speculators want to pay you for your stock, you'd have a stake in a stream of future profits or asset sales that company made simply from hanging onto it. If no speculators are interested in your bonds, the issuer is obliged to pay you coupon payments until it matures simply because you hang onto it. If nobody speculated on your property, there's a lot you can do with the land whilst hanging onto it. Even a dub…
My point is, the same kind of network effects that make social media valuable, are also inherent to cryptocurrencies like BTC. Metcalfe's law applies. Just like fiat currencies, actually.
So yes, new entrants are obviously important to achieve an increase in value (and therefore, price). But does that necessarily make it a Ponzi scheme? I don't think so, because a Ponzi is fraud, a scam, by definition. It needs to be done with the malicious intent of stealing the money of new entrants. That's not the case here. Of course new entrants might be convinced by speculators seeking profit to buy in when BTC is actually highly overvalued, but, the same applies to any other investment really (look at what's happening to TSLA).
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Classic coiner arguments. "Have fun staying poor!" For the record I: (1) Bought during the 2017 run-up, and sold around $17,000 in early 2018, and parlayed that into various other investments that have done quite well. I've posted to that effect here in the past. (2) Shorted CME futures at $56,000, and a bunch of Coinbase and a bunch of Tesla. That's roughly $100,000 USD per contract in profit - deposited directly in…
I wasn't asking for a breakdown of you wealth, the fact you felt the need to provide it to me indicates that you are someone who puts great store in their ability to accumulate wealth. So, as much as you may dislike the implication that part of your dislike is rooted in having missed an opportunity, you are certainly not strengthening your case for the opposite. My point is more that people who are always on the look…