Our entire political leadership is focused on risk mitigation, and it’s entirely tiresome.
US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine
531–540 of 1001 posts
Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine
#532Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yeah and we only just started to roll this vaccine out - so it's fair to say that the risk will likely grow beyond that. You're right that 7 / 7,000,000 are good odds, and most people would likely take them - but it would be unwise to not give people an educated choice between vaccines if there are known risks.
> so it's fair to say that the risk will likely grow beyond that. not really. that's not how statistics work. it could grow, it could shrink.
Provided a larger sample size, doesn’t an increasing rate of an outcome suggest existence a confounding variable that the smaller previously tested sample failed to identify, and (not absolutely- but more likely than not) would apply increasingly at the larger scale? Not a statistician here- and honestly asking.
Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine
#533Earlier quoted context omitted.
The point he’s trying to make is that if you’re in a low risk group (let’s say under 30 for example) maybe it’s a better idea to just skip the vaccine.
Wait, that doesn't sound quite right: the benefit of taking the vaccine goes not only to you, it's also to the people you would have otherwise infected by spreading the virus yourself.
If I'm vaccinated, I'm protected. I don't really care if anyone else is vaccinated or not, as I'm not at risk from their decision. Or is this not true?
Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine
#534Earlier quoted context omitted.
Government over-reactions to COVID19 have been disastrous. There would have been an economic hit for sure but things would have returned to near normal by August 2020 if they had respected freedom (or if people had disobeyed in mass).
Yeah. The US is apparently already at ~50% antibodies, not counting vaccination. So, there’s a floor on the upside of the vaccine: It did no more than halve deaths. We’re in the middle of a surge, and it looks like most of the remaining 50% will end up catching covid before being vaccinated, so the percentage saved by vaccination will continue to drop. The ideal strategy without hindsight was conventional wisdom: Pro…
Something close to a full shutdown was done in China, etc., not Florida.
Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine
#535Earlier quoted context omitted.
You blame the anti-vaxxers for the vaccine not being up to spec? Isn't this what they were saying the whole time?
No, I blame the anti-vaxxers for pushing the spec to be so strict that when 6 people out of 6.8 million people see a negative medical event, we pull the entire vaccine out of caution. We are pulling the vaccine because of a literally 1:1000000 chance that you might have a blood clot. Meanwhile, the risk of dying from covid is closer to 1:100 to 1:1000.
I'm understanding that your concern is that we should be protecting ourselves against covid instead of worrying about the rare side effects of the JJ vaccine.
However, keep in mind we are continuing the vaccinate people are a really high rate, we just are not using the JJ vaccine. No one is stopping all of vaccinations. A brief pause in JJ while they relabel is just a minor hiccup in our overall vaccination plans
Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine
#536Earlier quoted context omitted.
Young people shouldn't be getting the vaccine period. There is no reason to give every single person who will have children in the future an experimental vaccine for a virus they are at no serious risk from. The long tail risk on that is absolutely insane.
Not exactly sure what procreation has to do with anything. Also pretty sure risk of death outweighs literally any possible long-tail risk, so still seems sensible for the young to get the vax. Also don't think the long-tail risk of an mRNA vaccine can be worse then COVID's long-tail risk.
We have never deployed an mRNA vaccine before. We don't know what effect it might have on gametes.
Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine
#537Okay so I want to make something very clear here. The rule is to put it very very simply, is you can ship any drug that is approved but you have to list the side effects. This drug was approved under an emergency order and this side effect was not listed. This will get paused long enough for the side effects to be updated and then used again. The arguments about “well the birth control pill has a higher risk” are usi…
It's not about the rules, it's about the optics.
How many people will point to this or feel a bit hesitant about getting J&J vaccine now?
Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine
#538Earlier quoted context omitted.
I’ve been thinking about this, the communication has been so bad from public and private health officials for 15 months straight. When not considering any externalities, anti-vaxxers and everyone that comes up with anti-industry and anti-establishment conclusions is rational, but inaccurate only because they dont consider what was not said. Even with regard to COVID itself, most of the official communication is about…
The reason for the pause was explicitly stated by the health officials as quoted in the article, so I don't know why you'd say this was unclear let alone unsaid.
Because the headline drives sentiment
Its not just the internet, TV and radio also jump on the headline
The entirety of my comment is a cohesive statement and not just about this headline
Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine
#539Six cases in seven million administered doses. One death. Meanwhile, hormonal birth control causes clots in 1/1,000 women. No one blinks an eye. The vaccine hesitancy this engenders is likely gonna kill more than that one person. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1381936112311148548 > Public health bureaucrats have some weird habits in how they reason under uncertainty and how they communicate to the public. I…
This article [0] mentions 50% more blood clots observed during vaccine trials, which at the time was characterized as a slight numerical imbalance (15 blood clots versus 10 in the placebo group, in a trial of 20k people)
[0] https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/13/health/johnson-vaccine-blood-...
Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine
#540Earlier quoted context omitted.
I just made this website to show you how really, really small the risks are for the AstraZeneca vaccine which also has this ‘issue’. It compares the risks of dying from a blood clot after the AZ vaccine (about 1 in a million) to the risks we happily take every single day. http://whatoneinamillionmeans.com If you're not willing to take 1 in a million chances, it's gonna be pretty hard for you to get out of bed today
The one thing you miss, what is the risk of dying of COVID, as a healthy person under 30?
I'm not sure about under 30, but if you take natural causes out of it, you have around about the same chance of dying today - check out 'the micromort' for more details!