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Activists who embrace nuclear power

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Re: Activists who embrace nuclear power

#531
post #486
post #474

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Can we all agree that we should stop subsidize existing fossil fuel infrastructure? Yes, but that's not what this article is about. >Can we also all agree to stop expanding capacity for more fossil fuels? Yes, but that's not what this article is about. >Can we then also agree to stop repairing and extending the lifetime of existing power plants that uses fossil fuels? Yes, but that's not what this article is about.…

This conversation match pretty well the phrase "Talking past each other". Environmental activists that are also in favor of nuclear power are not interested in nuclear power for nuclear power itself. The goal is to get rid of fossil fuels, with the strategy to do so simply left open for both storage and nuclear. Since we are in an agreement on the questions about fossil fuels then everything else are unimportant. Let…

> Environmental activists that are also in favor of nuclear power are not interested in nuclear power for nuclear power itself. The goal is to get rid of fossil fuels

And the is the point with the anti-nuclear campaign. It is to argue that nuclear is not a solution to the climate crisis (or at least a very bad option next to renewables). I would argue that environmental activists that argue for nuclear are doing the cause a disfavor. We might be in an agreement that fossil fuel is bad, and we might agree that renewables are good. But we are in disagreement about whether nuclear is good (hence we argue).

> Since we are in an agreement on the questions about fossil fuels then everything else are unimportant

Quite the contrary. Where we go from here is very important. Firstly because there is world after the climate crisis (hopefully!), and we should be careful how we build that world. Secondly it might turn out (and evidence suggest) that nuclear is not a solution the climate crisis. This is important—as GP suggests—because renewables and nuclear are competing for attention of public policy makers. My government representatives might tomorrow start making the case that we should focus more on nuclear and allocate money and time that would otherwise have been spent on renewables to the nuclear pipe dream. Worst case scenario. New nuclear power plants are build over the next decade instead of renewable infrastructure, and a decade from now we are still emitting more carbon into the atmosphere. This the nightmare we in the anti-nuclear campaign are trying to avoid.

Re: Activists who embrace nuclear power

#532
post #398

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Apparently you haven't done the math on this, but I did: https://dercuano.github.io/notes/lithium-supplies.html Summary of conclusions: It seems likely that known concentrated lithium deposits will not be sufficient to permit the transition to solar over the next decade or two, but there is plenty of lithium in seawater and other, less-concentrated deposits to permit such a transition. New extraction technologies wil…

> Apparently you haven't done the math on this, but I did: https://dercuano.github.io/notes/lithium-supplies.html Only 5 minutes of storage exist in known energy reserves. Only 18 minutes exist in lithium reserves accessible with current extraction techniques. How is this supposed to be in favor of renewables? The lesson we take aware here is that demand for lithium needs to drive prices up high enough to incentivize…

> How is this supposed to be in favor of renewables?

I'm a lot more "in favor of the truth" than "in favor of renewables". And the truth is that there's plenty of lithium, but not with current extraction techniques.

> No, no it doesn't. If you generate 10 GWh of solar during the day and 10 GWh from methane during the night, and you install an additional 10 GWh of daytime solar how much did your carbon emissions go down? Zero. How is this hard to comprehend?

You seem to be violently agreeing with me, while congratulating yourself on your intellectual superiority, which is terribly amusing.

Last I checked, Li-ion was about US$111/kWh https://dercuano.github.io/notes/energy-storage-efficiency.h... which is probably around US$300/kW on th current grid, depending on how many hours a day you need battery, and buyers were undervaluing storage. Given that coal and (1970s) nuclear plants cost on the order of US$1000/kW to build, this is already economically feasible. (Current nuclear plants cost close to US$7000/kW, but plausibly that's largely regulatory costs.)

So, existing lithium batteries are already cheap enough to be economic to deploy; about US$100 billion of batteries into the future, new mining techniques are needed; there's plenty of lithium in the sea to get to an all-solar grid; and existing utility incentive structures haven't yet accommodated the necessity of storage.

Re: Activists who embrace nuclear power

#533
post #476

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem with "shut up and calculate" is that sometimes you forget to take things into account. People objecting on grounds of land use elsewhere in this thread have been worried about the size of the infrastructure and mines supporting the manufacture of the solar panels. I have no idea what the ingredients of a solar panel are, or how to calculate W/m^2 after taking area for manufacture into account, but it's pl…

It's important to take all of those things into account, and moreover to consider that we may have differing values and may need to compromise; but, in order to do that, we first need to be able to arrive at a correct understanding of the basic facts of the situation. For example, whether there is or is not enough land for solar power to replace current energy production from coal, other fossil fuels, and nuclear pow…

Thank you for expressing this better than I could have.

Re: Activists who embrace nuclear power

#534

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Many crops benefit from partial shade, as do industrial-building roofs, and parking lots. So, claiming that land used for solar can't be used for anything else, and must be new development displacing ecosystems, is not honest. Rooftop and parking lot solar are not nearly enough to meet our energy needs. 1,400 acres per GW! Are there fully-functional farms that can operate on 1,400 covered acres? Is there a function…

> Storing hydrogen is a nightmare So is storing enriched uranium. Again this is not a point in favor of nuclear.

Not really - water, concrete, and lead all absorb radiation fantastically. There is currently no solution for hydrogen leaking and embrittlement.

Re: Activists who embrace nuclear power

#535

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It reminds me of how people would pit GMO as a solution for world hunger You lost me here. How is this not? Because Monsanto is a bad company? GMOs can be good and Monsanto can be bad at the same time. Also I stressed a lot in my comment that you don't have to use nuclear, just don't take it off the table. My comment complaining about how people are saying "only nuclear" vs "only renewables" is being replied to as…

Like I said, I get defensive when people pit nuclear as a solution to the climate crisis , this is regardless of the context. I get equally defensive if the pit is “nuclear + renewables” or “nuclear only”. The reason is that I am skeptical of the claim that it is (there are ample nibling comments that demonstrate why) and that a false premise might affect public policy that hinders politicians from pursuing real solu…

> Like I said, I get defensive when people pit nuclear as a solution to the climate crisis, this is regardless of the context.

I'm sorry, I get defensive when people go against expert advice and think their own opinions supersede decades of research by those that devote their lives to the subject matter. I've worked in nuclear technologies (not reactors) and closely with energy and climate people. I trust their advice (not mine, theirs) and my work experience put me in close proximity to allow me to ask an annoying amount of questions (to refine my understanding of their advice). What I'm upset about here is this comes off as some random person on the internet being aggressive about a subject matter that is extremely complex (extremely is an understatement), where they have no expertise, and goes against the expert consensus. Such claims come off as exceedingly arrogant and I honestly don't see it as any different from the anti-vaxers who think a few youtube views and blogs makes them experts on difficult subjects. You're throwing your gut feelings against the livelihood of many researchers. This is an unacceptable thing in our society and doubly so on HN.

> GMOs

You're over simplifying (which was my original complaint). It isn't a food security problem or a distribution problem but a food security problem and a distribution problem that also got highly politicized. It is not an either or situation but an and. Besides, many GMOs are also aimed at increasing the shelf life of foods, which directly affects the distribution and logistics aspect. It was also discussed about how to make plants more resilient, provide extra vitamins, and grow in places they couldn't before. We've directly seen this increase the well being of many (and would be more if golden rice wasn't controversial simply for the fact that it is a GMO and nothing else). But this problem is itself complicated since transporting food is a traveling salesman problem. There's also a question about food security in America and The West vs elsewhere. In the former it isn't that large of an issue but in the latter it is a huge issue and we can't conflate the two. As for the politicization, you need to differentiate the scientific consensus from the media consensus. When the news starts being shitty, go to the source. If the source is wrong stop trusting the source. If the source tells a different story, stop trusting the soapbox (but not the source). If the source disagrees with you, maybe it is you that is wrong (sure, you might also be right, but chances are someone who has dedicated their life to studying a subject is more knowledgeable about said subject).

Or just stop politicizing everything and listen to the experts (news and science evangelists aren't actually experts btw). "Trust but verify" is great (and _highly_ encouraged) but "distrust and find reasons to ridicule" is not okay. We're talking science, not politics. Opinions aren't what matters, evidence is.

Re: Activists who embrace nuclear power

#536
post #282

Articles like this miss the main point and instead focus on culture war material. There are plenty of sites that would happily accept more nuclear being built, but all other forms of energy have undercut the cost of nuclear. It's no longer cost competitive, and places like China that adopt a "let's try everything and see what works best" approach have heavily pulled back on nuclear. The issues aren't safety, waste, a…

Afaik, nuclear energy is more expensive only because it is regulated far beyond what any other form of energy for the same level of risk. Disposal of nuclear waste is a huge expense, but the main waste product generated by natural gas (CO2) gets away scot free despite literally being the cause of what might be our generation's biggest problem. The end-of-life expenses of nuclear plants are included in the cost sheets…

> Afaik, nuclear energy is more expensive only because it is regulated far beyond what any other form of energy for the same level of risk.

Nuclear's problems are neatly encapsulated by one number. It's called the learning rate. The learning rate is how the unit cost of production changes as production increases. As a general rule the more you make, the better you get at it and so the costs reduces. The fast the cost reduces the greater the learning rate.

This is a good a summary of learning rates for various ways of producing electricity as any: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S03014... Here are some figures from that paper:

- Coal: 2.5% ... 20%

- Gas Turbine: 10% ... 22%

- Onshore wind: –11% ... 32%

- Offshore wind: 5% ... 19%

- Solar PV: 10% ... 47%

- Nuclear: –38% ... 6%

The point the paper was making is "gosh, we are bad at measuring learning rates". Even so, you could make two predictions based on those 2015 ranges:

- Solar PV is going to crush everything else,

- Nuclear is totally screwed.

And that's now looking like how it will turn out. It's nice to see predictions come true.

Getting worse do doing something the more you do it is difficult to imagine, getting -38% worse demands an explanation. As it turns out -38% is the figure for the USA. Other countries returned +6%, so perhaps regulation is it as you suggest.

But now turn your attention to the other end of the range. Nuclear is +6%, even in the best country. Everything is better than that. Solar is +47%. No matter how you look at it, Nuclear is still screwed on cost.

It's not hard to understand guess reasons why it's a low +6% either. Gas, wind, solar - they churn out thousands to millions of units a year, so there is lot of opportunity for experimentation and learning. For nuclear it's maybe 10 units a year.

Re: Activists who embrace nuclear power

#537
post #504

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It reminds me of how people would pit GMO as a solution for world hunger You lost me here. How is this not? Because Monsanto is a bad company? GMOs can be good and Monsanto can be bad at the same time. Also I stressed a lot in my comment that you don't have to use nuclear, just don't take it off the table. My comment complaining about how people are saying "only nuclear" vs "only renewables" is being replied to as…

GP was not saying that proponents of nuclear are arguing for "only-nuclear" but that arguing in favour of nuclear might be a net negative in the progress against fossil fuel. This happens everywhere, every movement needs to be both diverse (to avoid being too close minded to the complexity of the problem at hand) and focused (to avoid wasting efforts in pipe dreams). You and GP disagree on where to apply the cut off…

(G)GP is arguing against the scientific consensus in a extremely complex subject matter. My comment was about the arrogance of people going against expert consensus in complex subjects. We call anti-vaxers out for specifically this reason and I'm tired of pretending like climate (or many other hot topics) is any different. When it comes down to it, if it is some random person on the internet vs someone with decades of domain experience, I'm going with the advice of the latter. It is insane not to.

I am perfectly fine (and actively encourage) asking critical questions of the experts. I encourage getting domain knowledge. But there's a large difference between having some expertise and being an expert. We can argue over that line but that's not what the (G)GP was doing, or the vast majority of these threads.

Re: Activists who embrace nuclear power

#538

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Like I said, I get defensive when people pit nuclear as a solution to the climate crisis , this is regardless of the context. I get equally defensive if the pit is “nuclear + renewables” or “nuclear only”. The reason is that I am skeptical of the claim that it is (there are ample nibling comments that demonstrate why) and that a false premise might affect public policy that hinders politicians from pursuing real solu…

> Like I said, I get defensive when people pit nuclear as a solution to the climate crisis, this is regardless of the context. I'm sorry, I get defensive when people go against expert advice and think their own opinions supersede decades of research by those that devote their lives to the subject matter. I've worked in nuclear technologies (not reactors) and closely with energy and climate people. I trust their advic…

I think it is a mistake to deflate the political aspect of things. There is a ton of politics involved when arguing policy (duh). There is no way to not politicize debate about whether to use our public funds to subsidize nuclear power or renewable power. These things are inherently political, and should be argued with political framework in mind. A good example is in a nibling comment which states the risk of the nuclear lobby (or worse the fossil fuel lobby) spreading misinformation with the agenda of getting the industry they have a stake in to get top funds. It would be a mistake to ignore this.

Listening to experts is also not a good advice on it own, there is a lot of domain specific knowledge out there. A nuclear physicist might be an expert on how to generate nuclear power, but they need a geologist with their own expertise to help them mine the uranium ore needed for the process. They also need electrical engineers to figure out where the powerplant would fit the grid, and a civil engineer to figure out if the plant is needed at all. Being an expert in nuclear power does not make you an expert in nuclear policy.

Off course I am non of these things, my expertise is in front end web development. I am less then a layman in nuclear or power policy. However I am worried about the climate emergency, and I do worry that experts giving advice in favor of nuclear power are misguided—or worse—have their own agenda. I don’t think this puts me on a high horse or—more accurately—under a tin foil hat. Experts failed to stop the climate catastrophe before it was an emergency. Energy experts in the seventies knew the risk fossil fuels posed to the climate, but they failed to influence public policy to stop it. Worse they failed to even warn government officials on it. And worse still, they still influenced politicians to enact policy that made matters worse and doubled down on fossil fuel. I think history shows that blind faith in experts can be misguided.

Again I am not an expert on what I am talking about. And I think I am a fairly typical HN member in that. When reading commentary on HN I usually try to filter out the people that seem to know what they are talking about. I certainly don’t fit that category, reading my comments I would think to my self: “This person is making good points, but they are not providing any meaningful information.” There are other commentators elsewhere in this thread that know a lot more what they are talking about then me, and provide excellent reasons for why you should be skeptical of people promoting nuclear as a solution to the climate crisis.

Re: Activists who embrace nuclear power

#539
post #440

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is no such thing as 'empty land'. Every square meter of Earth is part of some ecosystem that is under stress due to human activity. Solar and wind compound this problem. Hi from Australia. We have huge unpopulated deserts and humans aren't really causing any stress on their ecosystems outside climate change. We are about to take a tiny, tiny part, put some solar panels on it and send the electricity to power Si…

>We have huge unpopulated deserts and humans aren't really causing any stress on their ecosystems outside climate change. Unpopulated by humans you mean. >humans aren't really causing any stress on their ecosystems If you place tens of millions of solar panels in a region you will destroy the ecosystem of that region, and yes, deserts are ecosystems too. Maybe you feel that is a fair trade and we will need to make th…

> Unpopulated by humans you mean.

Sure. This was in response to this: Every square meter of Earth is part of some ecosystem that is under stress due to human activity.

> If you place tens of millions of solar panels in a region you will destroy the ecosystem of that region, and yes, deserts are ecosystems too.

This is untrue. This solar farm will take up 120 sq km (out of the 10,000 sq km cattle property), and is unlikely to cause any environmental issues from the panels themselves, since they'll just shade some areas of sand.

Re: Activists who embrace nuclear power

#540

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s disingenuous to factor in mining requirement for solar panels but not uranium. Sure the supply chain to support the infrastructure required for 10 billion people is a lot on the environment, and we certainly could do a lot better. But these include better recycling of existing minerals (this includes solar panels), better forest management, better land use for food production, more careful road design that doesn…

Nuclear fuel is several orders of magnitude more energy dense than solar or wind, so the amount of fuel required is shockingly low, especially compared to how many resources all those panels and windmills require to build and transport. > How much land solar and wind farms use seems kind of minuscule next to all these efforts. And given how urgent the climate disaster is, complaining about land use from solar farms s…

> Nuclear fuel is several orders of magnitude more energy dense than solar or wind, so the amount of fuel required is shockingly low, especially compared to how many resources all those panels and windmills require to build and transport.

Uranium is rare and very unconcentrated so huge amounts of mining is required to get sufficient quantities. This is what a uranium mine looks like: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uranium_mining#/media/File:Ara...

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