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Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

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Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#531

Post by eclipxe »

aalleavitch wrote: post #485
throwaway5752 wrote: post #437

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I know when major historical events happened, thanks. Sorry if I did not state my case clearly enough. What I was saying was the underlying currents in the economy and politics are similar to the ones that led to those 3 events separately, not necessarily in the causal order in which they happened.

Right, all three of these things were a direct result of the second industrial revolution, as was the rise of communism. The first industrial revolution was punctuated with the American civil war. The second industrial revolution was punctuated with the great depression and World War 2. Just imagine what the digital revolution is going to be punctuated with. We are in for a hell of a bumpy ride.

Memes and shitposts?

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#532

Post by mdorazio »

opportune wrote: post #479
mdorazio wrote: post #468

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not convinced a recession would be good for ridesharing companies. In a lot of places today, using Uber or Lyft is significantly more expensive than driving yourself on a per-mile basis, and way more expensive than alternatives like public transit. In a recession scenario where people are losing jobs and tightening personal budgets, it's pretty easy to envision a lot of people taking a hard look at their rideshar…

It depends a lot on how much ridesharing companies pass on any labor cost decreases to consumers, and consumers' demand curves. Personally, my ridesharing use is a mix of relatively inelastic demand and elastic demand. Inelastically I am almost always going to use ridesharing to get to/from the airport, go places in other cities where I don't have a car and public transportation is too complex to figure out. I will u…

Totally agree, I just think that on average, the net result in a recession will be less rideshare usage, even with lower costs. For example, people are probably more likely to ask a friend/family member to take them to the airport in a recession scenario than they are today. If you've lost your job, a $20 ride can be a significant expense for a large portion of potential customers.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#533

Post by tempguy9999 »

SkyBelow wrote: post #501
tempguy9999 wrote: post #400

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If you want to play that game, then citation needed that he went bankrupt It's a reasonable question, but 1 minute googling got this report https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/kendalltaggart/here-are... with 3 of them viz. The Trump Taj Mahal Casino Trump’s Plaza The Trump Castle Are these at least sufficient to convince you?

You missed the part where I was (sarcastically) demanding the proof in a specific form that I know the reader doesn't have. It is one thing to say [citation needed]. It is quite another to say [citiation needed and by that I mean his tax returns and financial statements].

Here's the original question "The public at large does not know how much Trump is worth because he won't disclose much of anything"

What evidence in your view, other than his his tax returns and financial statements, is there to show his wealth? Because that's fundamentally what's being requested. I don't think those exact documents are needed if there are good alternatives. Suggest some alternatives.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#534

Post by c3534l »

zanny wrote: post #372
tlogan wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And things will be worse because China is also heading into recession. You know, you need sell all these products to somebody... And when US consumer stops buying new iPhones (or what ever) combined with recession then situation is going be really really tough. So this will be worse that 2008. Much worse. Back in 2008, China was growing and helping to ease the recession. I do not think China's economy will grow durin…

> So this will be worse that 2008. 2008 was bad because the collective banks of the US realized trillions in mortgages were money on the books that wasn't real and was never going to be real. The correction involved resetting said books and taking a few banks and a trillion dollars of US taxpayer money along the way. What is the correction this time? All it would really be is a run on confidence in global financial m…

There would be no "correction," as in revaluing what already exists - there would be a decline in economic productivity and efficiency. The problem isn't that the bank added one too many zeroes and corrected it, but that you broke your arm and now you're out of a job.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#535

Post by tunesmith »

refurb wrote: post #367
tunesmith wrote: post #343

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Philosophical question - why is that important to know? What added value is discovered by realizing your opponent's conclusion is not based off of bad facts or faulty reasoning, but different values?

How can you fully defend/understand your own beliefs if you don't fully understand your opponents beliefs? It's pretty arrogant to assume there is only one way to look at things - your way.

That is interesting, how does understanding your opponents beliefs make you more fully able to understand your own beliefs? I would think it possible to fully understand one's own argument about something, without understanding all possible counterarguments.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#536

Post by lowdose »

vinay427 wrote: post #445
dragontamer wrote: post #389

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is that "Deep State" is a loaded term. You could very well argue that the N-word is a historically accurate (and Latin) way to describe African Americans. Instead of using "Deep State", it might be better to say "Agency Directors", if you wanted to use neutral language. "Deep State" is loaded. Of course, its more popular these days to value-signal which side of an argument you're on, rather than appearing…

The "real" N-word is also similar to or identical to today's equivalents in Germanic languages (e.g. German, Dutch).

Also in Dutch you can't use the equivalent anymore. People of color take offense by it.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#537

Post by paganel »

0xffff2 wrote: post #519
paganel wrote: post #507

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know, just war. > but I really can't picture a scenario that leads to another world war, even in today's relatively unstable political climate. Ten years ago I bet almost no-one was picturing the late-1980s anti-nuclear treaties going the way of the Dodo bird. Or a land war in Europe (Ukraine is indeed in Europe). Or German politicians being shot for their political beliefs. Or British politicians being shot…

How do any of those meaningfully point to a war though? Again a war between whom? Assuming you're talking about the US pulling out of the INF treaty, that's not really a meaningful change. The Russians and various other countries were already largely ignoring it. Russia's territorial shenanigans are what really cemented the idea that we're not fighting a major super-power to super-power war ever again. The West has l…

> US troops have been in Europe for a long time.

They haven't been in Romania, which is, like I said, a stone-throw away from Russia. And they started showing up after the start of the conflict in Ukraine.

> Assuming you're talking about the US pulling out of the INF treaty, that's not really a meaningful change. The Russians and various other countries were already largely ignoring it.

That's not my understanding of it, at least not when it involves Russia (China is another story).

> Russia's territorial shenanigans are what really cemented the idea that we're not fighting a major super-power to super-power war ever again

Not sure how that follows. When you have nuclear weapons that you can launch from anywhere at anytime you are a super-power. The US and Russia are 100% military super-powers because they can basically annihilate each other at a moment's notice. I'd add China to the list, probably the UK and France too (not sure if France has nuclear submarines, though, too lazy to check right now). Even though Israel has nuclear weapons I don't treat it as a military super-power because of its lack of nuclear submarines or IBCMs. The same goes for Pakistan and India.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#538

Post by magduf »

cure wrote: post #308
magduf wrote: post #188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>I guess if his base can't put 2 and 2 together that prices are rising due to his tariffs it almost makes sense. His base really can't put 2 and 2 together. You seem to think it's obvious that tariffs will cause prices to rise, but you seriously underestimate just how stupid these people are.

> His base really can't put 2 and 2 together. You seem to think it's obvious that tariffs will cause prices to rise, but you seriously underestimate just how stupid these people are. I don't think they are stupid. But they are gullible and have been brainwashed. Their world view has been warped into something that just is not based in reality anymore ("invasions", "climate change doesn't exist", etc). This is not unl…

>I don't think they are stupid. But they are gullible and have been brainwashed.

Isn't that just another way of saying someone is stupid? I'd say a serious lack of critical thinking skills qualifies as "stupidity".

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#539

Post by TaylorAlexander »

war1025 wrote: post #517
walshemj wrote: post #505

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also the inertia caused by having 52 states all with different laws probably has made for more of an impact.

52? When did we get two more?

Well there’s Wallobama and North Missifornia.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#540

Post by OJFord »

vinay427 wrote: post #445
dragontamer wrote: post #389

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is that "Deep State" is a loaded term. You could very well argue that the N-word is a historically accurate (and Latin) way to describe African Americans. Instead of using "Deep State", it might be better to say "Agency Directors", if you wanted to use neutral language. "Deep State" is loaded. Of course, its more popular these days to value-signal which side of an argument you're on, rather than appearing…

The "real" N-word is also similar to or identical to today's equivalents in Germanic languages (e.g. German, Dutch).

It has a totally different meaning, but one that makes it much more common ('no but', iirc), so I had quite a surprise arriving at a Mandarin lesson one day!
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