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Master Plan, Part Deux

tesla.com

531–540 of 705 posts

Re: Master Plan, Part Deux

#531

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Care to provide a source to back up that claim?

They have basically a single source of revenue AFAIK which is selling cars. They sell X amount of cars per year making $Y. They don't turn a profit. Last year they lost close to $1B mostly because of their R&D costs. They need to either sell more cars (assuming that they can make money per additional unit like they say they can) or charge more for the ones they do sell, or both. Fortunately they are expected by inves…

Spending on R&D is exactly the same as Amazon intentionally reinvesting in areas that will make them more money. How does this not make them like Amazon?

The only real difference is that they have higher bootstrapping costs due to the type of product they make. i.e a physical object with a complex production pipeline. The only way to ever get profitable is to heavily and intentionally reinvest in R&D. Musk is doing the only thing that a startup in this space can do and expect to succeed outside of getting acquired which would be pretty much directly counter to the stated goals of the company.

Re: Master Plan, Part Deux

#532

> "When used correctly, [partially autonomous driving] is already significantly safer than a person driving by themselves" If you're an American, you're twice as likely to die with a steering wheel in your hands as you are to die at the hands of a murderer. Human-driven vehicle deaths cause grave second-order suffering for families and friends - and hurt the economy. A shift to technologies safer than human-driven ca…

> A shift to technologies safer than human-driven cars would dramatically reduce human suffering and should be welcomed. Car-for-car I'd easily wager that manually-driven cars have been involved in far more accidents than the one or two Tesla accidents that have occurred over the same time period (not to dilute the terrible result of the most recent accident). The problem is that a typical person doesn't care. Car ac…

There's also a significant tort issue. Consider the case where a drunk driver kills himself and someone else. Now consider the case where an autonomous vehicle kills its passenger and the passenger in another car.

A jury needs to award damages against A) the grieving widow of the drunk driver or B) A large corporation. I suspect the latter will be at least an order of magnitude higher. This means that until autonomous vehicles are an order of magnitude safer, the car companies will have to absorb more damages than the sum of what all of their customers would have.

Re: Master Plan, Part Deux

#533

> "When used correctly, [partially autonomous driving] is already significantly safer than a person driving by themselves" If you're an American, you're twice as likely to die with a steering wheel in your hands as you are to die at the hands of a murderer. Human-driven vehicle deaths cause grave second-order suffering for families and friends - and hurt the economy. A shift to technologies safer than human-driven ca…

> If you're an American, you're twice as likely to die with a steering wheel in your hands as you are to die at the hands of a murderer. Human-driven vehicle deaths cause grave second-order suffering for families and friends - and hurt the economy. If you're an American you're more likely to die from suicide than you are from motor vehicle related injuries. You're more likely to be poisoned than to die in a motor veh…

> Compared to 1950, motor vehicle death rates have more than halved.

This is due to safer cars, no doubt.

I'd love to see some stats between 2008 and 2015, which I believe would show the abundant increase in distracted drivers thanks to smart phones.

Re: Master Plan, Part Deux

#534

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Honest question: are any of the large European cities seeing the "white flight" phenomenon with the influx of poor middle eastern and african immigrants?

IMO it's the reverse; all the fun for young wealthy people is in the city centre, while minorities are pushed out to the suburbs. Old tenement buildings get reworked into apartments, warehouses in old industrial districts get similar treatment, etc.

A similar effect is happening in the US with gentrification of city centers.

Re: Master Plan, Part Deux

#535

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you think they'll have solar panels on the trailer? Would they have to roll them on/off when they switch trailers?

Almost certainly not. Except for, say, powering auxiliary electronics, concentrations of solar power are far too low for on-vehicle collection. Put the panels alongside the road . Not on the vehicles. Not on solar freaking roadways , which are the stupidest idea since stupid. But in medians, on extant construction, and in concentrated high-insolation solar farms (deserts, etc.). We're going to need one hell of a lot…

Why are solar roadways stupid?

Re: Master Plan, Part Deux

#536

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't Tesla also subsidized by the government?

That's not the subsidy I'm referring to. How much would it cost you to create a barrel of crude oil? Not "extract from the ground", the usual meaning of "producing oil", which borrows rather more from "produce the evidence" than "manufacture the good". But actually start with high-entropy substrates and some energy source and synthesize oil. Why do markets not account for this cost? (Hotelling's Rule is ignored, and…

What's next?

Are you going to account for the cost of making water? Not the bill you pay to the utility for use, but the actual cost of formulating water?

What about air?

How about the cost of creating a sun if you rely on solar power?

Re: Master Plan, Part Deux

#537

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You might want to seek some help. Unless you're just being dramatic here for effect, there are some red flags in your post such as not being able to get out of bed, being filled with self-loathing and despair, etc.

Don't be so dramatic. This is me every day. It's ADHD meets debt, family obligations, and dead-end job. A lot of entrepreneurs/wantrepreneurs and devs have ADHD. Can't do much about it unless I pop pills, which I'm not overly keen on doing. I'd rather find something to do that motivates me to get out of bed at 5am every day.

I've noticed some form of existential malaise seems to be very common among people with ADHD.

Let me also recommend popping-pills. It's not enough by itself, but it can help you do the yak-shaving that is needed for getting out of a dead-end job. At least speaking for myself, without medication, updating a resume, practicing interviewing skills, and researching job prospects (or alternatively doing market research, developing an MVP, filling out paperwork for a business, and seeking seed funding) could take years.

Re: Master Plan, Part Deux

#538

Earlier quoted context omitted.

sounds like diazepam

No different and stronger I suppose, paroxetin/SSRI. Body is weird this thing impacts my overall blood flow. I expected to feel awkwardly stupid happy but it's not, it just makes you calm.

I have a friend who is a psychologist, and she hates it when someone refers to anti-depressants as "happy pills" for this reason.

Re: Master Plan, Part Deux

#539

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I haven't figured it out, but my intuition is that the increased energy requirements of a tractor trailer mean that there isn't enough area there either. Back of napkin, it looks like you get ~3*15 meters of roof which seems to translate to 10 kW of output under good conditions and then you need something like 150 kW to rumble up the highway.

Well trucks still have a lot of low hanging fruit for becoming more aerodynamic. Plus you could use the sides of the trailer for some power too. Finally even if 10kw can't power the truck. It could extend its range by some amount. Plus that's still a significant amount of power you don't need to buy. 2-3 rooftops worth?

Those improvements are presently not done because of cost. Grid electricity is a lot cheaper than diesel.

I guess electric trucks would still put a lot more effort into avoiding air resistance because of the lower energy per unit mass of batteries (the aerodynamic improvements can be pretty directly traded for either range or cargo capacity).

I think present day solar cells are a combination of too expensive and too heavy to bother with. That could change in the future.

Re: Master Plan, Part Deux

#540
post #139

I still don't understand the SolarCity part. Tesla is atop the best rated electric cars, and has a good trajectory toward that product line future, with lots of innovation ahead. Successful companies like Apple focus on best-in-class products, so Tesla is smart to continue focusing their resources into those product lines. Meanwhile SolarCity has been burning cash on a consistent basis [1], and is sitting in a hyper…

I'm doing business (in my household) with both Tesla and Solar City. I can tell you this about Solar City: They're doing with roofing and power meters what Tesla is doing with vehicles. They're promoting a location-aware distributed electric-distribution grid. We're lucky right now that the government's promotion of PV is putting the burden of power storage on the power-grid operators. Without net metering, this stag…

whats PV
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