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Request For Research: Basic Income

blog.ycombinator.com

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Re: Request For Research: Basic Income

#531
post #417

Things that would help everyone, regardless of income, without depending on a radical restructuring of entitlement spending, that seem like things startups could actually do: * Equally credible alternatives to university education for professions that don't involve students shouldering $100k-$200k in debt based on decisions they have to make when they're 18 years old. * Empirical, blinded, skills-assessment based tur…

and of course, a little bit of taxes to redistribute YCombinator money made from startups-that-don't-help-people-to-eat to those people who'd be relieved by basic income

President Ptacek, elected alongside new House Speaker Ptacek, would add more than a "little bit" of taxes, but startups can't do that, so it's outside the scope of the question. :)

Re: Request For Research: Basic Income

#532
post #526
post #498

Earlier quoted context omitted.

College in Poland is free and there are options for very limited stipends which can sustain you (albeit on a poverty level). That did lift me from a poor, but educated, family into the world of computer software and a relatively successful career it seems. As it did for countless of my peers. Please don't discount free education as "not changing much", in the US I would be probably working at Mc Donalds or dealing cr…

There are problems with free Uni in Poland - people studying for 10 years just to extend the childhood. (government pay 15k a year to the uni) - some Unis accept people just to get money off of the government (accepted 500, graduate 100) - lack of quality due to poor funding Uni should not be free, but cheap. (50% of yearly median salary)

If people have the means to support themselves while studying for 10 years, why not let them study for 10 years? They are certainly not receiving a scholarship for these 10 years.

Re: Request For Research: Basic Income

#533

Things that would help everyone, regardless of income, without depending on a radical restructuring of entitlement spending, that seem like things startups could actually do: * Equally credible alternatives to university education for professions that don't involve students shouldering $100k-$200k in debt based on decisions they have to make when they're 18 years old. * Empirical, blinded, skills-assessment based tur…

* Empirical, blinded, skills-assessment based turnkey hiring solutions that outperform interviews for non-technology roles like marketing, purchasing, &c, so that people who avail themselves of alternatives to universities can get good jobs regardless of social signals.

Marketing desperately needs some sort of empirical way of hiring. Unfortunately, I think you'll find that half the people currently in marketing roles though would lose their jobs.

Re: Request For Research: Basic Income

#534
I think the most interesting thing YC could do to promote prosperity in the US is some kind of 'fellowship' for technologists with an interest in helping the impoverished to 'embed' with social service organizations and try to learn how to help them.

I don't think most people who frequent HN, no matter how well intentioned, understand the factors that cause people to be stuck in poverty, myself included. I think you would have to get close to the problem to have really useful ideas. I have ideas, but they are more like questions to be honest.

Some ideas I have thought about in the past:

* An app that helps people learn that they are in a failing school district, and helps them systematically develop a plan to get out of it. I live in St. Louis, and around the time of the This American Life episodes on the Ferguson schools, I spent a lot of time wondering how you end up sending your kids to the worst of the 550 public school districts in the state. The question in this case is: what are the characteristics of people who send their kids to bad schools, and to what extent can they help themselves if given the right tools?

* An app that helps people find others to share resources with (shared living, etc). The idea here is that poverty may be driven by the breakdown of the family, which provides first-line social insurance when working well. Kind of like match.com for poor people with kids looking to team up. The question here is: Is there some subset of improverished people who are very high-functioning, but so limited by childcare and low-wealth that they cannot lift themselves out of poverty. If so, could these people be matched and help each other by sharing resources?

* Trying to create a program that directly funnels kids from underperforming schools into computer programming and IT jobs without going to college. Perhaps to be hired by large corporations who will ultimately spring for night-school to round out their education. Here, I am thinking about a section from the book The Prize, where a bunch of Newark teachers go to insane lengths to try to get one kid with some athletic talent enough tutoring that he can achieve an ACT score of like 14 and qualify for a college scholarship. That strikes me as significantly less scalable than a program that tries to give poor kids a marketable set of skills coming out of high school. It would still be a small set of kids, but maybe larger than the number who have athletic talent (and its not clear athletic scholarships yield good outcomes anyway). The questions here: Could some non-trivial group of impoverished high school kids be funneled directly into employment with the right vocational technical skills and support from major corporations?

With all these kinds of ideas, however, I think you would have to get really close to the people you are trying to serve to have any chance of building something that would help them. And that means 'embedding' with them for a non-trivial period and really trying to figure out what will work.

None of these ideas are like startups, in the sense that I think in the best case scenario they aren't likely to scale very well. I think they are more likely to cherry pick a small number of resourceful/talented people who might otherwise have remained mired in poverty.

That's better than nothing, but my intuition is that when you get into the details of poverty that there are no highly scalable solutions. Everything is going to be messy. These stories have informed my opinions on messiness:

Netflix Rich Hill Undefeated Waiting for Superman

Audio This American Life on Ferguson Schools

Books Our Kids (Putnam) The Prize Work Hard be Nice

Articles http://www.tampabay.com/projects/2015/investigations/pinella...

Re: Request For Research: Basic Income

#535
post #478

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Based on what happens in remote communities here in Australia the result is not pretty. We basically have a basic income here in Australia via our welfare system. What we have found when everyone is jobless is there are huge levels of drug use, domestic violence, child abuse and general criminality. Other than this it works quite well.

I think the packaging is incredibly important - negative income / social welfare are packaged in a way that telegraphs dependency and low self-worth. [ I would also be really interested in seeing an economic analysis of how much money and time is spent on administering social welfare ] Basic income needs to be marketed as a positive way : here's some money - it is your share of the basic wealth from the land/resource…

This is a huge problem with no simple solution. The problem in the Australian remote communities is there is an entrenched culture that is not conducive to any productive activity.

Changing this sort of culture once it has formed is really, really hard. People much more dedicated than me have poured in enormous resources without make a dent in the problem.

Re: Request For Research: Basic Income

#536

I am all for research into basic income -- and in fact a big believer. However I take a HUGE issue with reading too much into the viability of the system based upon research done on small sample sizes: "Our idea is to give a basic income to a group of people in the US for a 5 year period" There is emergent behavior that arises in the economy as a function of the number of people given a stipend or living wage. For pr…

How can it be possible to run an experiment on basic income when participants know it will end in five years? The knowledge of it ending will change their behavior and encourage them to remain working.

Re: Request For Research: Basic Income

#537
post #287

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not "idle" exactly, but in the Canadian Mincome experiment, teenagers and new parents decreased work hours (to focus on studies and childcare, respectively). http://public.econ.duke.edu/~erw/197/forget-cea%20(2).pdf

But studying and caring for children is not idleness. We're talking about "sitting around idle" which, admittedly needs to be defined, but I'd argue doesn't include productive activities.

Defining "productive" and "unproductive" activities is difficult.

Sitting around playing video games is a classic example, but it's a way to become a better video game developer or a world-class player, both of which are fulfilling and well-paying endeavors. Even sitting and doing nothing (i.e. meditating) can be one of the most productive things an individual can do. [0]

What constitutes a "productive activity" is quite subjective. And even seemingly unproductive things can be productive: if they help de-stress and refocus, they're still contributing to productivity.

[0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10186082

Re: Request For Research: Basic Income

#538

My short-term worry about basic income is that it'll end up bidding up the prices for goods that poor people buy, especially the rent. I won't be surprised if most of the basic income eventually goes to the landlords. IMO the right solution is to get the government involved in distributing certain goods, not just handing out money to buy them. The state could guarantee free housing, food, healthcare, education and pe…

I think the key is to start from a welfare state that is the same size as the Basic Income system. That is, you have a tax funded system that pays for paternal leave, pensions, unemployment benefits, daycare subsidies, food stamps, and all other types of transfers. After that you make a transition to a basic income system, with a very small change in total transfers (e.g. 0-20%). This is exactly what would happen in…

Strange that the article made no mention of Finland. Probably because it's playing to a domestic audience.

Re: Request For Research: Basic Income

#539

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This word "Free" amuses me. I am curious why you think that something can be offered for free with no payment associated with it? Will the Professors work for free? Who will pay the electricity bill to heat or cool the buildings? What about the course material? Free? There is no such thing. Someone will always end up paying for it.

Ultimately this is just mixing up definitions of "value" in disguise. It's the reverse of assuming price is tied to some kind of intrinsic "value" of the good. Here, you're assuming nothing can be free (in economical sense) because physics. But it's not true. If you give stuff away no strings attached, it's free, period.

[deleted]

Re: Request For Research: Basic Income

#540
post #498

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not a big believer in minimizing college debt. I'm a believer in minimizing college . People who grow up in wealthy families naturally find themselves on a college track that seamlessly routes them to elite schools when they're 18 years old. People who grow up in poverty aren't on that track and might not even have much agency (due to their circumstances, requirements to work young, entanglements with the law) un…

College in Poland is free and there are options for very limited stipends which can sustain you (albeit on a poverty level). That did lift me from a poor, but educated, family into the world of computer software and a relatively successful career it seems. As it did for countless of my peers. Please don't discount free education as "not changing much", in the US I would be probably working at Mc Donalds or dealing cr…

That last sentence is almost assuredly a massive hyperbole. The US is not that bad...
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