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Uber's $1,500/month AI limit is a useful signal for AI tool pricing

simonwillison.net

521–530 of 819 posts

Re: Uber's $1,500/month AI limit is a useful signal for AI tool pricing

#521

Just to put this in context. If every company did this, all over the world, with that same limit, we are talking about something around $45B monthly in revenue for all AI companies to share.

World bank says there are 3.7B employed humans. Putting the total addressable market at around 67T if all of us spend USD 1.5k on tokens every month. This lines up well with current forecasts from the major AI labs

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Re: Uber's $1,500/month AI limit is a useful signal for AI tool pricing

#522

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This.^ I realized this first when moving a design spec from Claude chat to Claude Code and panicked. I literally had to build something like Notion but for agents to act as a portable memory between all cloud and local models and agents. But honestly it paid off! If you are interested you can try it out at markbase.cloud (disclaimer and all that). I am not charging for it.

We run a "context" repository that enables us to transition pretty seamlessly from model to model (usually codex to claude and back). It has skills / plugins / connectors / tooling in relatively malleable MD files. That's what I see as the future. Rather than exporting IDE settings we'll just carry our markdown to the next best tool. It's hedging a bet at this point, but that's why people say there's no moat. If the…

that's an interesting approach and something i also considered (using git to avoid conflicts). one thing i needed was a "database" (basically a folder of markdowns) with a fixed schema so i can let the agents record their decisions in (for example when the code conflicts with product design spec). this combined with search has been a real lifesaver.

this is how it works: https://help.markbase.cloud/humans/collections/overview

Re: Uber's $1,500/month AI limit is a useful signal for AI tool pricing

#523

I use Claude every day. Often for multiple hours a day. Basically doing my job not worrying how many tokens I spend (as in too many or too few). This is a pretty complex code base (database optimizer and related). Just looked at spent for the past 30 day, didn't even come to $600. 95% of my tokens are from cache. If I were to reach even $1500 I have to let claude run unsupervised over night (and with the amount of mi…

> didn't even come to $600.

That's still in the ballpark. A modest change in your usage habits or workload could easily get you there.

Re: Uber's $1,500/month AI limit is a useful signal for AI tool pricing

#524

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wait what are the sleep medications they actually recommend?

DORAs. Rather than being sedatives, they directly target receptors in your brain that make you think you should sleep. I think the oldest one came out in like 2011. It's kind of like neuroscientists found the trigger to tell your brain "we're going to do a clean shutdown now, trigger transition to runlevel 0". Quiviviq, Dayvigo, Belsomra. All still on-patent, so they don't have generics and are pretty expensive (like…

Genuinely thank you. I’ve had sleep issues my whole life and no one has mentioned these. Not saying I will pay that, but more info is always good.

Re: Uber's $1,500/month AI limit is a useful signal for AI tool pricing

#525

Just to put this in context. If every company did this, all over the world, with that same limit, we are talking about something around $45B monthly in revenue for all AI companies to share.

World bank says there are 3.7B employed humans. Putting the total addressable market at around 67T if all of us spend USD 1.5k on tokens every month. This lines up well with current forecasts from the major AI labs

> Putting the total addressable market at around 67T if all of us spend USD 1.5k on tokens every month

However, that's an absurd scenario.

Re: Uber's $1,500/month AI limit is a useful signal for AI tool pricing

#526
post #487

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Uber cutting back to ~$1,500/engineer/tool/month makes it look to me like they think there's at least $1,500 of monthly ROI to be had per engineer.

So touche, but since it's usage per task it's kind of weird. This means that the average engineer is efficient at (say) identifying the first 10 tasks they should do but there are diminishing returns after that? That seems like a weird pattern. Wouldn't it be more likely that certain tasks have a ROI based on how efficient the task is generated? Like I'm trying to imagine in my head, if you think an engineer is more…

"I suspect this is a first pass at figuring how to budget them and there will be a second pass."

Completely agree with that.

Re: Uber's $1,500/month AI limit is a useful signal for AI tool pricing

#527

> That means each employee's AI spending cap is ~11% of that median compensation package. Probably better to use the fully-loaded cost of the engineer, which is much higher than their compensation package. The fully-loaded cost is the total cost paid for the labor power of the engineer, and it includes big ticket items such as office space, food, equipment, insurance, payroll tax, fringe benefits, recruiting costs. I…

"$330k/year" Lol. I thought I clicked on hacker news 2022.

Is it too high or too low? Honestly cannot tell

Re: Uber's $1,500/month AI limit is a useful signal for AI tool pricing

#528

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not a service, but do you remember Scrum Masters? We had them as full time employees not so long ago. Pure fad.

I hope this is sarcasm, or "half" my job doesn't exist or something. Or you talking about full time non-dev scrum masters?

Yes

Re: Uber's $1,500/month AI limit is a useful signal for AI tool pricing

#529

Just to put this in context. If every company did this, all over the world, with that same limit, we are talking about something around $45B monthly in revenue for all AI companies to share.

World bank says there are 3.7B employed humans. Putting the total addressable market at around 67T if all of us spend USD 1.5k on tokens every month. This lines up well with current forecasts from the major AI labs

well, you couldn't justify the cost if you still employed all 3.7B

Re: Uber's $1,500/month AI limit is a useful signal for AI tool pricing

#530
post #424

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I also randomly wrote some code in a bind yesterday, while I was on the toilet, and it felt so strange. That was the first I'd written in probably 6 months.

You don't even make small tweaks by hand? There's so many things that are honestly faster to do by hand than wait for agents to do.

Nope I'm a couple levels too far removed from the code at this point for that. Closest I get is during meta-management (modularizing, complexity reduction, etc) with agents
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