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Watch your words soon Spain and Morocco will put a toll both for ships passing strait of Gibraltar.
They are not fighters.
Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence
521–530 of 559 posts
Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence
#522Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence
#523Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence
#524Earlier quoted context omitted.
When underlying problems are left untreated the number of unreasonable responses increases as a symptom of that. For sure, you'll always have that tiny minority who are just misanthropes. But a lot of the people who end up causing destruction do so because there's some problem affecting them that's not being dealt with. The modern world incentivizes creating underlying problems because not only can you profit from th…
> But a lot of the people who end up causing destruction do so because there's some problem affecting them that's not being dealt with. I think solving the socioeconomic, geopolitical, and religious tensions that lead to plane hijackings is a much harder problem to solve than simply putting doors on cockpits and forcing people to do body scans.
How do you stop the hijacker blowing up the TSA queue instead?
Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence
#525Earlier quoted context omitted.
It also substantially changes the definition of who's an insider. Polymarket has bets for random things like a particular word being used by an announcer. Suddenly the announcer is an insider on that bet.
I don't understand why people would want to bet on such an easily gamed outcome. I can understand that some people are compulsive gamblers, but it seems such a foolish thing to bet on. To me, it'd be like betting with someone about how many fingers they're going to hold up.
Life imitates art:
Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence
#526Earlier quoted context omitted.
well I see more problematic the people actually doing the Iran attacks and murder of heads of state. Betting on those is distasteful, but doing those things is where the damage lies.
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Ask yourself what's wrong with Iran knocking out Donald Trump or Joe Biden?
Or is it only America that gets to knock out other countries' dictators?
Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence
#527Earlier quoted context omitted.
Could you provide an example?
In German law, any contract, including bets, is void if it is “sittenwidrig”. For example, if your wager in a bet is to become one’ slave in case you lose, this bet is void.
I suppose they never specified the wager. But, given the topic is prediction markets and the topics of the bets, I thought it was implied that the wagers would be exclusively in money. With that in mind, is there any example of a law against specific topics being betted on?
Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence
#528Earlier quoted context omitted.
>An example would be the latest presidential election, where professional pollsters at them at almost 50/50, but the prediction markets had trump by a landslide. He went on to win even the popular vote. Trump didn't win by a landslide and he barely won the popular vote... >The benefit comes to people who don't even participate, and just take notes. Praying someone has an example besides the election, to which it seem…
It's not supposed to make a difference but to provide information to people, which it does a great job of. Go browse Polymarket and the odds they lay on most of everything are about as close as one can get as to the "real" odds of that thing. They're essentially like a superhuman pollster. I'm a big fan of them but have not placed a single bet. It's simply that if you want to see what's happening in the world, a brow…
If the information does not make a difference, what is the point of the information? White noise is "information". Yelling "fire" in a crowded theatre is "information". What is the point?
> As for the election, a Republican winning the popular vote by a couple million can't be called a landslide in nominal terms, but it is in terms of normal results. The DNC currently completely controls California and New York. After those 2 states alone Trump was down 7 million votes in 2020. The rest of the states tend to be either very small or relatively competitive. To make up the popular vote amongst them requires a very large edge. Polymarket had Trump as a 2:1 favorite the day before the election, and he would indeed go on to win every single swing state.
And the numbers were actually much more closer to what the national media outlets reported... so again, what is the value of the "information" on polymarket? All it reflected was that there were a couple of whales that were betting hard for Trump. The results did not remotely reflect the polymarket odds at all as you concede. I'm not sure how you think that doesn't end the conversation, but it seems to be more of a political point you are making that is divorced from the reality of the numbers reported.
Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence
#529Earlier quoted context omitted.
Correct, to be even more specific. Cloudlfare uses a reputation pooling technique to provide anonimities to their clients (providers, through reverse proxies, in this case). Since cloudflare does not comply with requests to selectively stop distributing the banned content in Spain, and since ISPs cannot perform that filter due to header encryption like encrypted HELO, then the Spanish courts opt to perform the least…
"Least destructive"? I can't access many sites and services during matches, but my colleagues tell me their pirate sources have barely been affected. This "least destructive" path is not working but is definitely destroying.
What other measure do you propose?
Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence
#530Earlier quoted context omitted.
Ok, besides avoiding the blocks altogether, you seem to know of a less destructive approach, please do share it, I'll share whatever you come up with to my representative as I've managed to have a dialogue about this with them before. But it has to be something , and cannot be "Don't do the blocks" obviously since it's already ruled it should be blocked, but since you've managed to come up with a block so it doesn't…
Why does the end justify the means here? Revising the ruling should be an option: The blocks clearly aren't working, everyone I know who pirates matches tells me their sources have barely been affected, and others share the same here. Meanwhile I, that don't care about football but pay for my ISP, can't visit during matches most of the sites I regularly visit. Why am I an acceptable casualty in the piracy wars? > But…
Just to clarify your position, Spain should allow US companies to not comply with court orders for US company operations within Spain jurisdiction? So Spain should just allow another country to do whatever, or to use some extra-legal judgment criteria to discern whether something is worth following the law for and what is not worth the hassle?