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How will OpenAI compete?

ben-evans.com

521–530 of 693 posts

Re: How will OpenAI compete?

#521
post #468

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It’s not anymore (actually google is awful now) and people are still using it

As Chrome has about 75% market share across all platforms - probably 90% of those use the google default. As far as I'm aware OpenAI doesn't control any defaults for which AIChat service to use.

It took Google a decade before they released Chrome so OpenAI has plenty of time to have a Chrome moment. Maybe it'll be something that comes from the OpenClaw acqui-hires?

Re: How will OpenAI compete?

#522

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sorry - being dim - I don't get that.

Apple has offered products with little value over competitors for a long time now, but they still get to command a large premium on their products because "the vibes are right". When engineers analyze things they look at the specs, stats, and metrics. When consumers analyze things they look at what others are doing, feel for vibes, roll into the convenience, and stick with the familiar.

>> Apple has offered products with little value over competitors

My Pixel dropped connections unexpectedly. The battery would barely last till end of day.

Apple hardware is simply better value for the money

Re: How will OpenAI compete?

#523
post #433

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There’s a toggle in every new Gemini chat to turn off personalization for that chat. I assume you need to make sure it’s mom globally first?

On the web app, I see the "temporary chat" option but no toggle. It tells me temporary chats aren't used for model training. I thought I remembered that chats of Pro customers aren't used for that in any case. Hard to keep track of all this stuff. Ultimately, I think the crossover memory is useful, but I'd really like to know exactly what's in there and an ability to validate/adjust, not just on/off.

Model training is completely different than keeping a summary of chats on the side and injecting it as context.

In my Gemini app, when k click new chat and click the filters button I have “Personalize Intelligence: Personalize chat when helpful.”

It is on every time I click new chat. Maybe you need to enable it in settings first. I can disable it to have a clean chat without personal context, but preserve the chat history unlike temporary chat.

Re: How will OpenAI compete?

#524
post #444

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You seem to have defined ads as "obvious calls to action that end up in me buying it for sure". That's a pretty narrow view of marketing, but it does feel like you are aware that there may be other forms as you provide examples across the thread. It comes off as some form of elitism, where you deem the simplest ads as ineffective on yourself (but work on "average people") - but then go on to mention things like disco…

Is discount really an ad? Like if I had already made a decision to buy a thing and now I paid less for it was it really a working ad? Also sponsored content is way different than having ads on a website or in an app or what kind of ads do you think GPT will have? And you are definitely judging me. When people say “ads” that is pretty specific thing that they mean. If you broaden it to mean everything then I can’t arg…

Here’s the FTC’s definition of an ad:

> Any message designed to promote or sell a product, service, or brand, where there is a material connection between the speaker and the advertiser.

Yes, a discount is an ad - sometimes by the brand/manufacturer to get you to buy their product instead of a competitor, or by the seller to sell that product over others (for even mundane reasons like stock clearing).

Yes, sponsored content is an ad. The content creator is reimbursed for their output that is used to convince viewers to perform some purchase activity, usually over alternatives.

You’re really severely restricting the definition yourself by claiming an ad is “things that ublock origin” blocks. They can’t block physical banners and billboards or TV commercial breaks - does that now make them not ads? Whether you intended to buy something again doesn’t disqualify something from being an ad. In fact, that’s often when an ad is most effective - to buy the one they show you, instead of one you haven’t heard of or considered.

Re: How will OpenAI compete?

#525

Everyone is actually underestimating stickiness. The near billion users OpenAI has is actually a real moat and might translate into decent chunk of revenue. My wife, for example, uses ChatGPT on a daily basis, but has found no reason to try anything else. There are no network effects for sure, but people have hundreds and thousands on conversation on these apps that can't be easily moved elsewhere. Understandable tha…

It's really easy to overcome that -- just sponsor some IndieDevs to flood the internet with scripts and tools to migrate all your conversations from OpenAI. Make it easy for people to switch using a simple process, make sure it's well distributed, and BOOM! Watch their user count drop like a rock. People act like just because a service has a lot of users it can't be destroyed. Anyone who has ever worked at a large web company can tell you otherwise. These things can be destroyed in a just a few days if they are targeted.

They look like fortresses from the outside, but they are all incredibly vulnerable. That's the truth they don't want people to know or realize just how vulnerable they all are.

Re: How will OpenAI compete?

#526

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree 100%. Often when I use increasingly powerful local models (qwen3.5:32b I love you) I mix in web search using search APIs from Brave, Perplexity, and DuckDuckGo summaries. Of course this requires that I use local models via small Python or Lisp scripts I write. I pay for the Lumo+ private chat service and it has excellent integrated search, like Gemini or ChatGPT. EDIT: I have also experimented with creating a…

Interesting idea on the local search index! It occurs to me that running something that passively saves down content that I browse and things that AI turns up while it does its own searches, plus a little agent to curate/expand/enrich/update the index could be super handy. I imagine once it had docs on the stuff I use most frequently that even a small model would feel quite smart.

Nice idea, caching what you are already browsing.

Re: How will OpenAI compete?

#527

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree 100%. Often when I use increasingly powerful local models (qwen3.5:32b I love you) I mix in web search using search APIs from Brave, Perplexity, and DuckDuckGo summaries. Of course this requires that I use local models via small Python or Lisp scripts I write. I pay for the Lumo+ private chat service and it has excellent integrated search, like Gemini or ChatGPT. EDIT: I have also experimented with creating a…

Interesting idea on the local search index! It occurs to me that running something that passively saves down content that I browse and things that AI turns up while it does its own searches, plus a little agent to curate/expand/enrich/update the index could be super handy. I imagine once it had docs on the stuff I use most frequently that even a small model would feel quite smart.

yeah i really like this idea too, I don't need the entire internet indexed I only need the stuff i'm interested in indexed. I can imagine like a small agent i can task with "find out as much as you can about " and what it does is search the web, download the content, and index it for later retrieval. Then I can add a skill for the main agent to search the knowledge base if needed. Kind of like a rag pipeline but using agents to build a curated data source of stuff i'm interested in.

Re: How will OpenAI compete?

#528

Earlier quoted context omitted.

UI style and response tone aren’t flavors?

now youre arguing openAI has a distinctly better product not just that they are hoping for high switching costs

No, not at all.

I am arguing that “distinctly better” isn’t the most important thing in consumer products. Habits, familiarity, and individual taste at far far more important.

People just build affinity to products. The vast majority of people buy the same brand toothpaste they grew up with. “Better” isn’t even a consideration.

Re: How will OpenAI compete?

#529
post #349

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In my experience with Gemini, most of its capabilities stem from web searching instead of something it has already "learned." Even if you could obtain the model weights and run them locally, the quality of the output would likely drop significantly without that live data. To really have local LLMs become "good enough for 99% of use cases," we are essentially dependent on Google's blessing to provide APIs for our loca…

This is actually so ironic. Corporations spent fortunes to design cool websites, but what people really want is structured, easy to read information in the context they want. So flow is you type search query to Gemini, Gemini uses Google search, scans few results, go to selected websites, see if there is anything relevant and then compose it into something structured, readable and easy to ingest. It's almost like goi…

a long time ago ( in AI time ) Karpathy used the analogy that LLMs were like compression algorithms. I can see that now when i ask an LLM a question it's basically giving me back the whole internet compressed to the scope of my question.

Re: How will OpenAI compete?

#530

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So in summary OpenAI are basing their valuation of 285 billion on the moat of 'users won't be arsed to download a different app'??? Seems optimistic when there is very little intrinsic stickness due to learning the UI or network effects. Perhaps a little bit chat history - but not 285 billions worth. Also completely ignoring the fact that most devices things will start to come with the same features directly built in…

[flagged]

Easy for me to download a different app. Not easy for me to get everyone I communicate with to download a different app.

I don't see the laziness lock in working nearly as effectively for something outside of messaging.

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