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Hetzner Prices increase 30-40%

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Re: Hetzner Prices increase 30-40%

#521

Post by maxglute »

JasonADrury wrote: post #511
maxglute wrote: post #508

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>You just do it from a reasonable hub That's not reasonable condition, hence why EU is systemically more expensive. THG logistics looks like warehouse->dispatch, i.e. it's for vendors of certain size that can prestock at regional warehouse. Private last mile always fast. But it doesn't address first mile to hub. Can a bumfuck workshop in a hamlet deliver in Greece deliver to warehouse in Poland across multiple jurisd…

> But it doesn't address first mile to hub. Can a bumfuck workshop in a hamlet deliver in Greece deliver to warehouse in Poland across multiple jurisdictions for peanuts? Yes, unless they're doing so at a ludicrously small scale. Sending a 20t lorry load from Thessaloniki to Warsaw will cost less than 6000 euros. I suspect it can be done for around 2400, but I don't know the route very well. >My understanding is EU f…

So the answer is really no considering vast majorities of SMEs i.e. 99%+ of EU business operates at "ludicrously small" scale that can't fill a container, i.e. about half of EU internal trade. 80% discount off what base price, because if after 80% discount off high priced EU courier rates and final cost more than one euro, PRC still comes out ahead, i.e. PRC domestic first mile prices are like 20-80 cents per parcel. Unless private EU courier rates are 1-5 euros (they're probably not), they still lose to PRC first-mile. (TBF I'm just assuming EU courier prices, my knowledge more limited to PRC logistics). If that's the case, EU simply can't compete, as in EU systemically not capable of matching PRC price floor. Hence IIRC why EU plan to add flat custom duty per item on Chinese parcels to make them more expensive. Like I'm sure many established businesses factor/absorb higher shipping cost into opex, but ultimately shipping cost/friction affects things like startup formation in first place etc.

Re: Hetzner Prices increase 30-40%

#522

Post by dzhiurgis »

0xy wrote: post #413
everdrive wrote: post #360

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"The real story here isn't Hetzner being greedy. It's that AI companies are vacuuming up every DRAM chip on the planet and the rest of us get to pay the tax." We might also have our aquifers depleted and our electricity prices skyrocket. But at least we see really great benefits, such as being able to script some side-project while unemployed due to AI.

>aquifers depleted Oh it's this thoroughly debunked talking point again. https://andymasley.substack.com/p/the-ai-water-issue-is-fake

I just can't believe how HN turned into disinformation / propaganda machine over last few years. Pretty much every topic is politics and disconnected from reality.

Re: Hetzner Prices increase 30-40%

#523

Post by rchaud »

infecto wrote: post #222
rchaud wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Markets only "figure things out" in a petri dish economy where: 1) There are no barriers to entry for competitors (e.g. protectionist tariffs, equal access to capital for everyone) 2) There are perfect substitutes available, so transitioning to a competitor is seamless and free (e.g. no requirement to store data in Country X, no vendor lock-in, no security compliance) 3) The industry is not a "natural monopoly" when…

Markets are never perfect but over the course of history they are a pretty good mechanism to solve these type of problems. Not sure why we think taxing hyperscalers differently is the answer. Government usually does worse than the market when it comes to sorting it out. My argument is not that market is perfect but that the alternatives are probably far worse, like a new tax on a specific group of companies.

The course of history, from borders to leadership choices and technological advances like seafaring has been determined to a much greater extent by organized religion and state-sanctioned warfare than it has by the open and free operation of markets.

Re: Hetzner Prices increase 30-40%

#524

Post by infecto »

rchaud wrote: post #523
infecto wrote: post #222

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Markets are never perfect but over the course of history they are a pretty good mechanism to solve these type of problems. Not sure why we think taxing hyperscalers differently is the answer. Government usually does worse than the market when it comes to sorting it out. My argument is not that market is perfect but that the alternatives are probably far worse, like a new tax on a specific group of companies.

The course of history, from borders to leadership choices and technological advances like seafaring has been determined to a much greater extent by organized religion and state-sanctioned warfare than it has by the open and free operation of markets.

If you have a consistent example of those solving market supply and demand pricing I am all ears. I read what you said but has little to do with my statement. Over the course of history one of the best mechanisms to solve imbalance is supply and demand has been the market and its ability to eventually set prices correctly. It’s not perfect and it’s not always the best solution but it’s pretty good for these types of problems.

I am all ears for your examples though but I don’t think borders, leadership changes or advances are “this type of problem”

Re: Hetzner Prices increase 30-40%

#525

Post by millzlane »

dzhiurgis wrote: post #522
0xy wrote: post #413

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>aquifers depleted Oh it's this thoroughly debunked talking point again. https://andymasley.substack.com/p/the-ai-water-issue-is-fake

I just can't believe how HN turned into disinformation / propaganda machine over last few years. Pretty much every topic is politics and disconnected from reality.

Can't stop calling it out when you see it. The internet is being used for good and for evil.

Re: Hetzner Prices increase 30-40%

#526

Post by doom2 »

avemuri wrote: post #323
Aurornis wrote: post #289

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's that AI companies are vacuuming up every DRAM chip on the planet and the rest of us get to pay the tax. DRAM is priced based on supply and demand, like every other market. When demand goes up, the price goes up for everyone. It’s not a “tax” on the rest of us in any sense. There’s just a lot of demand everywhere. > That's not normal market dynamics. This is actually a textbook example of markets functioning in…

Can't agree more. We can also predict with some confidence that in a year or two, supply would have adjusted and ram will be cheaper in the long run. We benefit from the expanded demand even if the fact that it first lands as a shock is disruptive to prices.

GPU prices went through the roof for crypto and then the pandemic and never really recovered to pre-pandemic prices before once again spiking because of AI demand. So where's the increased supply of Nvidia cards to account for all the continued demand? And why haven't RAM manufacturers announced plans for increased production (instead of pulling out of the consumer market altogether)?

The past 6 years of GPU pricing (the 5080 launched at $1000, currently $1500-1800 at Microcenter) don't exactly fill me with confidence that RAM manufacturers will increase supply to meet demand and bring down prices again.

Re: Hetzner Prices increase 30-40%

#527

Post by NikolaNovak »

nurettin wrote: post #492
NikolaNovak wrote: post #362

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But... They're not wrong. That IS the market. Unrestricted, gloriously free market with its historically predictable outcomes - yay! That's not where the interesting discussion is. The interesting discussion is with the notion that free unregulated markets are universally good and will naturally lead to positive outcomes because... I don't know, I'm personally not religious, but somebody here will help me :-).

What they probably mean is that it is not a fair market, that there is no balance in purchasing power, pushing small scale buyers away while supply slowly catches up (or doesn't)

I'm not disagreeing with you, but I have not frequently heard the phrase "fair market" (as opposed to a far more limited and specific term "fair market value", where "fair" I believe applies to "value" and not "market") and would be interested in hearing more of its definition and criteria.

Trivially, I would assume proponents of "free market" and "fair market" are a tiny if not zero Venn diagram, and that terms are at least somewhat opposing, but will withhold my judgement :-).

Re: Hetzner Prices increase 30-40%

#528

Post by nurettin »

NikolaNovak wrote: post #527
nurettin wrote: post #492

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What they probably mean is that it is not a fair market, that there is no balance in purchasing power, pushing small scale buyers away while supply slowly catches up (or doesn't)

I'm not disagreeing with you, but I have not frequently heard the phrase "fair market" (as opposed to a far more limited and specific term "fair market value", where "fair" I believe applies to "value" and not "market") and would be interested in hearing more of its definition and criteria. Trivially, I would assume proponents of "free market" and "fair market" are a tiny if not zero Venn diagram, and that terms are…

Oh I made it up on the spot, actually. It is just something to complain about.

Re: Hetzner Prices increase 30-40%

#529

Post by anonzzzies »

tasuki wrote: post #101
anonzzzies wrote: post #52

I have been buying older servers by the truckloads. Older being a year or so. It will be enough to host whatever outside AI that we need for the coming 15-20 years. And the all were great deals, will have them paid for within a month per server. I have my own cage full with empty racks bought from a bankrupt company in AMS.

> enough to host whatever outside AI that we need for the coming 15-20 years. Not sure who "we" is, but I highly doubt you'll use those servers for 15-20 years.

We run production on servers 15 years old for our company/clients. Servers now are far faster and the software barely changes performance characteristic wise. We run Java, Perl & PHP ERP/departmental type projects; nothing that gets added makes anything slower and I don't see that happening either. Unless clients will want vastly different things, which, you know, they won't as they are big sluggish companies.

Re: Hetzner Prices increase 30-40%

#530

Post by Silhouette »

infecto wrote: post #507
Silhouette wrote: post #483

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why not? The point of regulation is to fix things when market forces haven't been sufficient. You keep talking about winners and losers but it's unclear to me who you think is actually winning in this situation.

and what market forces haven’t been sufficient here. Demand went up, price has gone up. Price has been fairly stable since the initial run up. It’s unclear to me why you think who the winners or losers matters. My position is it’s incredibly difficult to regulate short term supply and demand. You will always introduce unintended consequence. Regulation in my opinion works best where there are external costs that are…

Market forces have not been sufficient because the funny money moving around in the AI sector is starting to significantly damage other parts of the economy. I'm not sure how I can say this any more clearly.

If the AI sector wants to take a big risk that either pays off or it doesn't then that's one thing. If the danger is contained and the people taking the risks are the only ones who will suffer if things don't work out then that's their choice. The important point is that the danger in this case is not contained. It's not just the AI sector being affected now. It's not just the people choosing to take the risk in the hope of a big profit who are being harmed.

I don't think it's realistic any longer to treat this as some sort of short term supply-and-demand problem with luxury products. It's been building up for several years already. We're seeing public statements from some of the big companies involved that already run through 2026 and beyond that imply the supply chain situation continuing to worsen for everyone else. And the components in question are now necessary for a lot of normal operations and day-to-day life.

If we just wait and see for another 2-3 years as some are suggesting then in the meantime real businesses who were operating responsibly and doing nothing wrong will be failing to grow as they should, putting up prices for their customers, letting staff go, or even failing completely. Governments will be redirecting tax revenues to basic IT infrastructure instead of public services. People who just wanted to buy a normal device for their own personal use won't be able to afford one or maybe to find one at all and their quality of life will fall.

I can see no reason why we should allow these harmful outcomes just because some already rich VCs and some AI tech bros are playing games at the scale of the global economy to try to sustain the unrealistic valuations of the big tech companies for their own benefit. It's increasingly unlikely to work anyway and it's a realistic possibility that the bubble will burst this year so trying to contain the fallout from that as much as possible instead of allowing the bubble to inflate even further is not a bad idea either.

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