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Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

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Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#521

Post by dwoldrich »

pegasus wrote: post #454
dwoldrich wrote: post #428

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Actually, what you're listing above is just another set of beautiful (to you) abstractions. No, "banksters" are not "100% parasitical". The percent is definitely less than 100. But, you know, as they say: the devil is in the details.

Definitely less than 100? What do you know about it? How is what they've accomplished not monstrous crime so total, and we haven't even properly named it? It's systematized, bureaucratized, anti-human. "Clown World" is the meme, but that is not sufficient.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#522

Post by mmaunder »

What is different about this time is how much a crash is expected, which is reflected in the run up in the gold price, for one. It’s also reflected in the public discourse about the high probability of a crash - as with this post and many others over the past couple years. 2008 was sudden and unexpected by most. The dot com crash was sudden and unexpected by most. If we crashed today it would have been expected by most and many would make money off the crash.

I’m not sure what the effects of a highly anticipated crash are, but I’d love to discuss what they might be.

It’s priced into gold, which I think reflects negative dollar sentiment. It’s not priced into the VIX, which is implied volatility across the S&P. Suggesting a crash in equities is not priced in.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#523

Post by jfyi »

jacquesm wrote: post #340
phkahler wrote: post #245

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The dollar is going down in value right now. Thats the plan. It makes foreign goods more expensive and exports more affordable to other countries. Meanwhile it should have less inflationary pressure on domestically produced stuff like housing. I dont know if this is going to work or collapse. If it does work IMO they still need to reduce the debt - current actions are because we are backed into a corner, so that need…

There is no plan. There is just chaos.

There is a plan, it's a deliberate assault on financial institutions with the intention of seizing financial control.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#524

Post by direwolf20 »

carbonguy wrote: post #443
CraigJPerry wrote: post #438

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I, a foreign entity, have sold something to an american and now have 10 dollars and zero treasuries. I purchase a treasury. I have zero product, zero dollars and one treasury. At some point in future i have zero product, maybe 12 dollars and zero treasuries. Presumably i now either repeat the cycle or use my winnings to spend on us output. GP’s version checks out, your assertion about dollars staying abroad doesnt tr…

> I, a foreign entity, have sold something to an american and now have 10 dollars and zero treasuries. Or you sold something to a non-American entity in a dollar-based market, eg. oil. The dollars do come from America to begin with, but once they get "out there" they work as a medium of exchange for whoever wants to use them for that purpose.

Which is why the US historically bombed any country that sold oil for other currencies, but now china is negotiating the petroyuan and it's working.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#525

Post by direwolf20 »

ezconnect wrote: post #475
CraigJPerry wrote: post #438

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I, a foreign entity, have sold something to an american and now have 10 dollars and zero treasuries. I purchase a treasury. I have zero product, zero dollars and one treasury. At some point in future i have zero product, maybe 12 dollars and zero treasuries. Presumably i now either repeat the cycle or use my winnings to spend on us output. GP’s version checks out, your assertion about dollars staying abroad doesnt tr…

Because the world trades using US dollars. Country A needs to buy something from Country B. Country A needs to buy/get dollars to buy stuff from Country B. Country B will not accept anything but dollars or gold for its products because it also needs to buy other stuff like oil in dollars from other countries.

It could accept any credible currency if it was connected enough. Euros, yuan, rupees and yen aren't going anywhere for at least 20 years. Each one is a separate system and countries mostly connect to just one, which is USD, but that doesn't have to be the case forever.

India won't accept euros because it's not part of the ECB, not because it doesn't believe in their value. But India has accounts at US banks in dollars.

Banks do this, not countries. Most banks in the world have accounts at US banks to accept dollars with, they don't have accounts at eurozone banks to accept euros with, or Japanese banks to accept yen with. It doesn't matter in everyday practice because it's easy to exchange euros in eurozone banks or yen in yenzone banks with dollars in dollarzone banks. There's plenty of infrastructure for that. It matters in long–term economic trajectories because all those banks are holding US dollars and the US exports inflation to them and they're not holding euros and then ECB can't.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#526

Post by direwolf20 »

tpm wrote: post #397
YZF wrote: post #361

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The rules based order is mostly a fabrication of recent history. Perhaps between the fall of the Soviet Union, China becoming more open, and the general peace and prosperity it seemed like it existed. Politics between countries has always been around interests. Countries have no interest in giving up their sovereignty. They may pretend to respect these "rules" when it suits them and then ignore them when it doesn't.…

> Russia and China (and many others) have never even pretended to play or accept these "rules". This false. They have pretended to play by the rules, and when breaking them, to at least manufacture some pretext, or to deny it was a state activity at all. One example I can give you is that when invading Czechoslovakia in 1968, the Soviet Union convinced a few Czechoslovak politicians to write a letter inviting the for…

Russia fabricated an attack on Russia by Ukraine before invading Ukraine. So this is still occurring.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#527

Post by nradov »

jmward01 wrote: post #353
panarky wrote: post #270

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The international "rules-based order" is a good idea when most nations play by the rules most of the time, and when the most powerful at least pretend to follow the same rules as everyone else. A world order based on rules makes it possible to live at a much higher level of abstraction. Abstractions like rule of law, democracy, government currencies and stock exchanges are intangible and imaginary. They're mostly jus…

I generally agree with your comment except the 'back to the real world' part. This is just the difference between a world with the gains that cooperation give verses a world with just the maximized minimum return that distrust leads to. A trusting world is the real world we have seen for decades. It is a real world we can choose to keep pushing for.

Who is the "we" who can choose? People training this from places like the USA and India have at least some modicum of choice. In China not so much.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#528

Post by direwolf20 »

YZF wrote: post #392
farss wrote: post #390

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The "rules-based international order" was a fiction popularized by US policy makers who wanted to quietly substitute it for international law, so they could violate said laws, while still vaguely gesturing at moral authority.

International law was and is also a fiction. We have various conventions and agreements. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_law "In the 1940s through the 1970s, the dissolution of the Soviet bloc and decolonisation across the world resulted in the establishment of scores of newly independent states.[67] As these former colonies became their own states, they adopted European views of international law.[68] A…

All law was and is a fiction. Nothing can stop a murderer murdering you.

Re: Surely the crash of the US economy has to be soon

#529

Post by direwolf20 »

dwoldrich wrote: post #521
pegasus wrote: post #454

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually, what you're listing above is just another set of beautiful (to you) abstractions. No, "banksters" are not "100% parasitical". The percent is definitely less than 100. But, you know, as they say: the devil is in the details.

Definitely less than 100? What do you know about it? How is what they've accomplished not monstrous crime so total, and we haven't even properly named it? It's systematized, bureaucratized, anti-human. "Clown World" is the meme, but that is not sufficient.

Even Hitler wasn't 100 evil, because he planted flowers.
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