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American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

kielinstitut.de

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Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#521

Post by [deleted] »

bparsons wrote: post #212
PaulRobinson wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A lot of Americans believed the guy they wanted to believe in, because they didn't want to believe the people they didn't want to believe in. You're assuming that modern politics across most of the World has something to do with rational, logical thought. Russia, China, Europe, the US, the Middle East - they are all in a quagmire of irrational fractures between the public and the political classes who want power/cont…

Things aren't perfect in a lot of countries, but what is happening in the US right now is absolutely unique. Things are careening out of control, and the political system seems completely incapable of getting a handle on it. Most people I speak to in Canada, Europe and Central America seem perplexed why Americans they know do not seem more alarmed.

[deleted]

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#522

Post by [deleted] »

lcnPylGDnU4H9OF wrote: post #511
groundzeros2015 wrote: post #491

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is your position that nobody educated in economics would ever support a tariff? edit: in the context of giving good economic advice.

My position is that nobody educated in economics would believe that a tariff is something exporters from other countries pay the government of the importer's country.

[deleted]

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#523

Post by tsss »

id34 wrote: post #203
kryogen1c wrote: post #168

Almost all the comments acting like this is some truth bombshell, like people in trumpistan all thought raising tariffs magically made the us economy better. This is a straw man, no? Tariffs are a mid-long term strategy to encourage onshoring business, for reasons including military, national security, and political influence on foreign powers. This is a complicated topic involving the global economy and evolving int…

The use of tariffs as a mid-long strategy, in my view, would require a stable, long-term communication that the US government will implement careful, strategic tariffs alongside incentives to strengthen chosen domestic industries where they believe a domestic alternative is feasible. We haven't seen anything even close to that at any point in this tariff rollercoaster - tariffs for products that cannot be produced at…

This is the real problem with the US tariffs. There is no strategy and no confidence from businesses that their investments will pay off. China can do it because everyone knows that the CCP will stick to their plan but Trump changes his mind every hour and no policy can ever last more than an election cycle.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#524

Post by annexrichmond »

jbm wrote: post #327
greenavocado wrote: post #290

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Chinese exporters and the Beijing government absorb most US tariffs rather than passing them fully to American consumers. Commerce Secretary, Howard Lutnick: “The model is clear: 10% tariffs or less are paid by the manufacturers, the distributors, the businesses,” he said. “The consumer doesn’t pay. The consumer doesn’t pay because the seller doesn’t want to raise prices, because if they could, they would, but they d…

The article we are commenting on literally says 96% is paid for by Americans. Do you have a reason to accept Lutnick's position?

“The German study said something that is in their interest to do so, so therefore it must be true”

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#525

Post by m4rtink »

onlyrealcuzzo wrote: post #266
PaulRobinson wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A lot of Americans believed the guy they wanted to believe in, because they didn't want to believe the people they didn't want to believe in. You're assuming that modern politics across most of the World has something to do with rational, logical thought. Russia, China, Europe, the US, the Middle East - they are all in a quagmire of irrational fractures between the public and the political classes who want power/cont…

You are using "believed" - past tense. Facts change nothing. This report means nothing. These people still believe. The report is wrong. They are right. The truth is whatever they want it to be, not something out of their control.

Even the strongest believes eventually collide with the hard cold solid wall of reality.

But if you do believe hard enough, if you give it your all and exclude anything else than your believes, when you become one with it - then you can certainly increase the collision speed quite a bit! :-)

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#526

Post by engineer_22 »

singingbard wrote: post #461
bartread wrote: post #56

I'm glad they've done the work here and put a figure on it - the impact absolutely needed to be quantified - but I also have to say... to the surprise of absolutely no-one with even the most basic grasp of how economies function. People, lots of people, lots of people who have a really deep understanding of national and global economics (unlike me), have been warning about this since talk of tariffs became common cur…

The founders were skeptical of direct democracy because it assumes people have time and expertise they mostly don’t. People should not be voting based on their understanding of tariffs. It’s why we ended up with a republic. But social media changes the equation entirely. It gives us the speed of direct democracy without any of the structure or responsibility. It pushes people to judge candidates issue-by-issue, often…

I think you've hit on a good point. As a society we're still trying to figure out how to rule ourselves in the age of Social Media.

Let's pray we're able to figure it out before more blood is shed.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#527

Post by gruez »

Aromasin wrote: post #338
onlyrealcuzzo wrote: post #266

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are using "believed" - past tense. Facts change nothing. This report means nothing. These people still believe. The report is wrong. They are right. The truth is whatever they want it to be, not something out of their control.

That is populism in a nutshell. It is anti-rationalism at its heart. There's no real ideology - that's how it applies to both Chávez and Trump, Corbyn and Orbán. People want to believe what feels "instinctively" correct, because the intellectual overhead of modern society leaves the majority of the population unable to deal with the reality that political and economic systems are incredibly difficult to understand wi…

>Corbyn

???

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#528

Post by bad_haircut72 »

vjekm wrote: post #447
bad_haircut72 wrote: post #353

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This kind of purity test is why the left cant win right now. Anyone who does a wrong-think is shitcanned and othered. Im gonna put a theory out that I havent seen here yet, a lot of people voted for Trump because they got dunked on by leftist Twitter, told they were racist/fascist/whatever for having an opinion like "communism is bad", and now comes a guy who wont back down and who legit makes them cry liberal tears.…

That's not a purity test, it's just math.

They edited the post, it used to say OP was a fascist for voting third party.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#529

Post by jaredklewis »

bartread wrote: post #56

I'm glad they've done the work here and put a figure on it - the impact absolutely needed to be quantified - but I also have to say... to the surprise of absolutely no-one with even the most basic grasp of how economies function. People, lots of people, lots of people who have a really deep understanding of national and global economics (unlike me), have been warning about this since talk of tariffs became common cur…

There is basically no overlap between the things that economists generally say are good (free trade, carbon taxes, cap-and-trade, immigration, land value taxes, organ trade, congestion pricing, etc…) and the things that populists of either the left or right say are good (rent control, price controls, tariffs, wealth taxes, debt relief, minimum parking requirements, etc…).

Why would you (or anyone) be surprised that economically sound policies are not popular? They are not popular in the US. They are not popular in Europe. They’re not even popular on HN.

For reasons I don’t understand, almost everyone hates economics.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#530

Post by NetMageSCW »

cael450 wrote: post #265
bartread wrote: post #56

I'm glad they've done the work here and put a figure on it - the impact absolutely needed to be quantified - but I also have to say... to the surprise of absolutely no-one with even the most basic grasp of how economies function. People, lots of people, lots of people who have a really deep understanding of national and global economics (unlike me), have been warning about this since talk of tariffs became common cur…

I’ll never be able to respect someone who voted for tariffs because they were upset about inflation. Five minutes on Google would have shown how dumb that was.

I don’t remember there being a big discussion before the election about Trump using tariffs as a giant stick to try to make the world do what he wants by punishing US citizens.
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