OpenAI's cash burn will be one of the big bubble questions of 2026

Post by Fraterkes » Wed, Dec 31, 2025, 10:47 AM UTC

sigmoid10 wrote: post #497

Jare wrote: post #421

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> For the right investor base, $10B in annual losses at OpenAI could be worth $2-3B in tax shields (depending on their bracket and how the structure works). That completely changes the return calculation I know nothing about finances at this level, so asking like a complete newbie: doesn't that just mean that instead of risking $10B they're risking $7-8B? It is a cheaper bet for sure, but doesn't look to me like a ga…

It all depends on the actual numbers. Consider this simplified example: If you are offered a deal that requires you to lay down 10 billion today and it has a 5% chance to pay out 150 billion tomorrow, your accountants will tell you not to take this deal because your expected return is -2.5 billion. But if you can offset 3 billion in cost to the tax payer, your expected return suddenly becomes $500 million, making it…

Post by ben_w » Wed, Dec 31, 2025, 10:50 AM UTC

alex43578 wrote: post #480

lenkite wrote: post #455

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> OpenAI's losses might actually be attractive to certain investors from a tax perspective. OpenAI is anyways seeking Govt Bailout for "National Security" reasons. Wow, I earlier scoffed at "Privatize Profits, Socialize Losses", but this appears to now be Standard Operating Procedure in the U.S. https://www.citizen.org/news/openais-request-for-massive-gov... So the U.S. Taxpayer will effectively pay for it. And not j…

There's already a lot that the US taxpayer is on the hook for that's a lot less valuable than a best on the next big thing in software, productivity, and warfare. It shouldn't be the job of the US taxpayer to feed someone that doesn't want to work, study, or pass a drug test, and it absolutely shouldn't be the job of the US taxpayer to feed another country's citizens half a world away.

Post by Zenst » Wed, Dec 31, 2025, 10:51 AM UTC

Post by mikkupikku » Wed, Dec 31, 2025, 10:55 AM UTC

lm28469 wrote: post #486

throw310822 wrote: post #438

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> AI is a world-changing technology, just like the railroads were This comparison keeps popping up, and I think it's misleading. The pace of technology uptake is completely different from that of railroads: the user base of ChatGPT alone went from 0 to 200 million in nine months, and it's now- after just three years- around 900 million users on a weekly basis. Even if you think that railroads and AI are equally impac…

> just three years- around 900 million users on a weekly basis. Well, I rotate about a dozen of free accounts because I don't want to send 1 cent their way, I imagine I'm not the only one. I do the same for gemini, claude and deepseek, so all in all I account for like 50 "unique" weekly users Apparently they have about 5% of paying customers, the amount of total users is meaningless, it just tells you how much money…

Post by mikkupikku » Wed, Dec 31, 2025, 10:58 AM UTC

troupo wrote: post #502

onion2k wrote: post #393

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Try “@gmail” in Gemini I think this is a problem for Google. Most users aren't going to do that unless they're told it's possible. 99% of users are working to a mental model of AI that they learned when they first encountered ChatGPT - the idea that AI is a separate app, that they can talk to and prompt to get outputs, and that's it. They're probably starting to learn that they can select models, and use different mo…

> I think this is a problem for Google. Most users aren't going to do that unless they're told it's possible. Google is telling this in about a hundred different popups and inline hints when you use any of its products