The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994) • Hacker News Board

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#521

Post by Teever » Sat, Apr 12, 2025, 5:31 AM UTC

WalterBright wrote: post #503

forgetfreeman wrote: post #501

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The deficit should count, but since Federal taxes haven't been increased to service it it doesn't, so there is that. Likewise, CA and WA are what they are, but I think it's a bit of a stretch to suggest they're so central to the US economy that their local tax structure is driving tracked changes to household income and savings, real wages, inflation, etc. metrics on a national level. Additionally relatively recent c…

> The deficit should count, but since Federal taxes haven't been increased to service it it doesn't, so there is that Inflation is the result of the deficit, and it is the equivalent of a tax. This is why politicians work so hard to deny that inflation comes from the deficit. Want more examples of burdensome regulation? Try Lina Kahn of the FTC with her frivolous (but very expensive) lawsuits. Regulation is why the C…

I've engaged with you on economic topics in the past and I've just read this thread. Suffice it to say you have some relatively unorthodox perspectives on economics and regulation so I was wondering -- What regulations if any do you consider necessary?

Why?

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#522

Post by xenadu02 » Thu, Apr 17, 2025, 10:38 PM UTC

acyou wrote: post #454

Interesting article. This is the key takeaway for me: "U.S. firms are at a further disadvantage in that their foreign competitors benefit from sustained government incentives to invest in advanced industrial equipment." True then, and true now. If you want to buy a machine, you are basically on your own, and machine financing isn't favorable, it's on the contrary somewhat predatory. But this article was written prior…

This is true. A Chinese state bank will loan you a couple million to setup a factory with few questions asked. Loan repayment will be repeatedly deferred until you can find customers. The risk is comparatively low.

As you noted here in the US getting financing to start a small business of any kind, let alone loans to invest in manufacturing is predatory or downright impossible.

The US Government could easily setup a system like for student loans: money for factories and machines without having to jump through a billion hoops, defer payments until you can find some customers, and a department dedicated to retooling the factories that don't make it and handing them to someone else to try again.

We'd need to include more investment in making automation profitable at smaller scales for those starting out but look at anything else (solar, computing) and you can see how scale could lower the cost.

Instead I guess we'll use tariffs to start a trade war.

FWIW it is unfair that countries like China impose tariffs on our products and restrict our ability to operate without a "local partner". But the current effort is ham-fisted at best.

Re: The Decline of the U.S. Machine-Tool Industry and Prospects for Recovery (1994)

#523

Post by aj7 » Sun, Apr 20, 2025, 3:00 PM UTC

robomartin wrote: post #460

aj7 wrote: post #386

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This only stops when China equalizes. The real shame is our country is not such a nice place to live, when we enter our phase as a less-advanced country. We always had brilliant immigrants and democratic ideals to keep the ball rolling. What now?

> This only stops when China equalizes. Not sure what that means. There are many potential outcomes that could be defined as "equalizes". At one limit, no country in the world, except for China, has a solid industrial base. In other words, nobody makes anything except for China. OK, then their standard of living continues to increase. Got it. In, say, 50 years, the cost of doing business in China starts to become les…

China, which has a good, but not dominating manufacturing sector, will have a run of leadership, especially when it masters EUV, airframes/avionics/propulsion, and then potentially leads at the beginning of post silicon. But the United States won’t always be led by morons, and China’s lead in basic manufacturing will be fleeting, since that will be completely automated, and plant location and management will become mainly a financial calculation. Our young people have no interest or memory of the good old days, and will rebuild the country without the militaristic arrogance of their predecessors. The rise of fascism in the U.S will be studied in college. At least I can hope.