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US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

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Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#521
I don't know how I feel about this overall. But I do want to recount something from my childhood.

I'm American. I grew up in the rural Midwest. The truth is that much of this country is a depressing shell of its former self. The town I grew up in is all but dead -- about 12,000 people still live there, though. The nearest big city, previously a hub of manufacturing innovation, has been on a steady decline for decades. Since the 70s, more and more powerful drugs have been flooding into the broad geographic region, decimating entire communities and creating generational cycles of poverty and addiction. It's an absolutely brutal combination that has totally killed almost all innovation and output in huge swathes of this country. Candidly, even if you brought back manufacturing to the area, the local population is so dependent on drugs that you'd struggle to even find workers today.

Today's drugs are so powerful that addicts would rather live in total poverty with drugs daily than have a high-paying job without drugs. Every small business owner in these regions knows this, but the true scope and severity of the problem can otherwise be hard to fully notice and appreciate. It's not possible to operate a small business in these regions without encountering the drug problem on a regular basis.

Do I think tariffs are going to fix this? Honestly, probably not, for the simple reason that Trump is old and won't be here much longer even if he tries to install himself as a dictator. The winning strategy for much of the world is to likely wait this out to some degree -- best case scenario for others is that this will just get reversed or significantly mitigated in 3.5 years, which is the blink of an eye on global timescales.

Nonetheless, my heart goes out to the incredible loss this country has experienced over the last few decades. It's truly heartbreaking and devastating that we've sold out so much of the country for short-term profits to such a degree that we can probably never break out of the cycle without severe pain and sacrifice.

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#522
post #482

Thank you, nonvoters.

The only people who matter in an election are the voters so I'm always perplexed so many feel comfortable blaming non voters for the problems voters made.

This non voter shaming is quickly eroded as soon as you ask voters if non voting is an issue. They will report it that is is a huge problem. Then ask what candidates or parties support mandatory voting and you'll get crickets.

That's because it has nothing do with tackling the perceived problem of non voters and all to do with virtue signalling that you vote.

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#523

I'm surprised by how many concerns there are here related to how the tariff amounts were calculated. It seems like they used a pretty simple algorithm to do it. Isn't that a good thing? Countries were treated the same and the tariff was decided primarily by the trade imbalance (with a minimum of 10%). Would we rather them use a combination of completely incomprehensible calculations and backroom deals? Its open seaso…

It's both simple and stupid algorithm, though.

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#524

This historical period will be remembered by being a cause for legislation to introduce strict testing for mental illness in government positions. Ask any psychologist and it’s clear what it is, but they won’t say it publicly because of Goldwater “rule”. fact is they have the most dangerous and destructive mental illness known, and they captured the power exactly because of their disorderly mindset. Yet for months an…

Nah.

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#525

This historical period will be remembered by being a cause for legislation to introduce strict testing for mental illness in government positions. Ask any psychologist and it’s clear what it is, but they won’t say it publicly because of Goldwater “rule”. fact is they have the most dangerous and destructive mental illness known, and they captured the power exactly because of their disorderly mindset. Yet for months an…

I don’t support tariffs at all, but calling these people mentally ill is the wrong approach.

They’re not mentally ill, they’re obsessed with power. It’s dangerous to conflate the two.

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#526
I'm European. While it's pretty childish to paint the US and the EU as two human being with a "relationship" it's of course pretty jarring to see a country that has for my entire life been the undisputed cultural hegemony simply check out of the world stage and suddenly treat everyone on "their" side (culturally, politically and economically) like an enemy, or at the very least an abuser.

I'm not an economist, but I don't think you have to be one to realize that kicking the entire global economy right between the legs will lead to a recession -- just look at the supply chain issues that echoed for years after Covid, and the massive "quantitative easing" that had to be done to avoid a recession.

The abandonment of trade partnerships I could live with, I'll make it through a recession and every country is free to elect their own politicians and make their own fiscal policies, dumb as they may be; I don't get my "feelings hurt" by Americans wanting to bring back manufacturing jobs -- although I have issues understanding the reasoning.

What worries, and actually saddens me, is the complete doing away with of values, that I do think have existed in the past. The US has never been a beacon of exemplary behavior, and I understand that "nations have no friends, only interests" -- one needs to look no further than the US treatment of the Kurds for an example of this -- but it's unbelievable to me how so many Americans can not see the American self-interest in making Russia pay for what they've done in Ukraine.

Russia has been the main antagonist of the US for the entire post-ww2 era. It's a totalitarian state and an obvious enemy to the US. Invading Ukraine was a massive mistake, and all the richest country in the world had to do to basically risk-free damage their biggest antagonist, was to keep pressing a dollar-button together with the EU. No boots on the ground, no Iraq- or Afghanistan scale disaster, just military and economic support for a country that could end up being an extremely close ally. There is literally zero chance Russia could win a war of attrition with this dynamic. Instead, it's like the Soviet union in the 70s would have given away Cuba for free and instead threatened to invade North Korea.

In the end, I think what makes me uncomfortable is that I truly do not understand what it is that the average American (or voter) wants, because the actions of the US on the international stage makes no sense to me, yet so many Americans seem to cheer it on.

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#527

Aside from everything else one thing what strikes me as particularly insane is how it’s not even defensible as a protective measure. My favorite everyday olive oil comes from Tunisia. They now have a 38% tariff on them. There are no out of work olive farmers in the US. The orange man wanted tariffs, the orange man is going to get tariffs. Now we have to hope the American people aren’t so dumb as to still be convinced…

> There are no out of work olive farmers in the US. Is that because we can't grow olives here, or because we don't have federal subsidies propping up a domestic olive industry that can compete with corn and soy? I ready don't know the details well enough there, but it feels like this could just be selection bias at play.

The exact growing conditions for olive production aren’t common in the US, so most of the production comes from California - west of Sacramento and south along the San Joaquin river. There are a lot of barriers in bringing specialty crops to market related to know-how and contracting sale of product, so even in other areas where growth may be possible it may be infeasible.

https://www.agmrc.org/commodities-products/fruits/olives

https://croplandcros.scinet.usda.gov/

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#528

The golden prize for America's enemies is to remove the US dollar as a global reserve currency. Since trade is conducted largely in USD, that means other governments must purchase USD to trade. This is the core of trade deficits. Foreign countries buy US dollars so they can trade with other people. That guarantees the deficit since they give us something in exchange for USD, which they do not then spend on goods we m…

To be fair this strategy will work if other countries cannot tolerate tariffs for long enough to come up with non-USD trade that is accepted by everyone. Which to be fair may take them a very long time.

If they fold and remove tariffs on the US (so the US can drop the tariffs on them) before coming to an agreement because the economical pressure of tariffs is too high, then this will result in the largest market expansion the United States has ever seen.

My point is: yes lots of negatives can happen, but let’s also look at what happens if it works out so we are intellectually honest about what’s going on here.

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#529
I can't say it any better than Randy Newman:

The end of an empire // Is messy at best

And this empire's ending // Like all the rest

Like the Spanish Armada // Adrift on the sea

We're adrift in the land of the brave // And the home of the free

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E0EAwSpTcM4

Re: US Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU

#530

Here's something I want to understand: In 1930 the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act was passed by congress - an act of legislation. Nearly 100 years later we have the president unilaterally picking any tariff numbers he wants. What happened?

He invoked the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), which gives him the ability to levy tariffs in an “emergency”. There is no actual emergency, of course, but Congress does not have the political will to stop him.
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