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The Demoralization is just Beginning

geohot.github.io

521–530 of 812 posts

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#521

This started out interesting but then the red flags started to pop up. Going to jail in Europe for posting memes, gold standard, salivating over doing something that benefits the US and hurts countries that are already poorer than the US. He has strong opinions on economics, but doesn't understand it. His points about economics are partially true but either subtly incorrect or interpreted incorrectly.

is there any reliable source for that "going to jail in europe for posting memes"? I keep seeing this argument in online arguments, but can not find a credible source

I suppose this doesn't remotely qualify as "memes", but Mr. Bond went to prison for ten years in Germany for making racist rap songs.

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#522
post #456

This started out interesting but then the red flags started to pop up. Going to jail in Europe for posting memes, gold standard, salivating over doing something that benefits the US and hurts countries that are already poorer than the US. He has strong opinions on economics, but doesn't understand it. His points about economics are partially true but either subtly incorrect or interpreted incorrectly.

It didn't even start out interesting. The main product of the US is weapons not "the dollar". Electricity generation is a metric for what exactly? China's popoulation is rapidly urbanizing. That's all that shows. But the killer is the gold standard. The author seems to be confusing this with fractional reserve banking. Interestingly, they're anti-crypto, which is kinda odd because most gold bugs became crypto bros. C…

> The main product of the US is weapons not "the dollar"

I interpreted it as - the US "exports" debt in exchange for the import of goods and services. It's a deficit country, it consumes more than it produces.

China (not only China) is a surplus country, they produce more than they consume. They store that surplus into US financial assets but also increasingly into other places, like developing countries. I've read that their investments into developing countries are often unprofitable. Previously they've been using the excess production to invest into real estate and infrastructure but those were often money-losing investments too (empty houses, under-utilized high speed rail with high maintenance costs).

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#523
post #396

There's an implicit assumption in the article and the comments here that "brain drain the world" is a free lunch. But does anyone think through to the end-game of that? That when you drain the most smart/productive people away from every other country, all those countries become less wealthy and more dysfunctional, leading to societal decline, poverty, resentment, radicalisation, war, etc? Aside from anything else, t…

> We need to put as much effort into helping every other country develop and thrive - and by doing that we'll create many more customers for the products/services produced in our own countries, and everyone can end up richer. this was the logic in letting eg China into the WTO and allowing them to become such a big trading partner. turns out, this doesn't necessarily result in liberalization (see Germany's experience…

Working less with China makes the possibility of a war higher. Obama wanted to have a trading framework which prevents a mutual degradation of trade on America’s term, but Trump didn’t want that, and Americans voted to this again.

I think genie is out of the bottle, and it’s too late to prevent it. But the logical step would have been what Obama wanted. Now, we have dark times ahead of us. These forced shifts in trade just make the process to these bad times quicker. Nobody really benefits them, just make the war a possibility sooner. If not a full out war, but a new Cold War at least.

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#524
post #510

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your link doesn’t state that.

https://hyphenonline.com/2024/10/04/ava-moayeri-germany-pro-... https://www.yahoo.com/news/police-berlin-raid-flats-pro-1333... https://www.dw.com/en/german-police-raid-homes-of-pro-palest...

In the subtitle of the DW link: "One of the suspects was accused of a violent attack on a state politician."

Seems like this was not just about posting memes.

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#525
post #400

Earlier quoted context omitted.

income inequality today is about the same as it was 100 years ago. https://ourworldindata.org/how-has-income-inequality-within-...

What happened in 1929?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wall_Street_crash_of_1929

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#526
post #490

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-bMzFDpfDwc https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-43478925 https://www.cheshire.police.uk/news/cheshire/news/articles/2... These things seem abhorrent to Americans who have nearly unlimited free speech protection.

The two UK cases: - Nazi pug man got a fine of £800; no jail. - Cheshire people; in the context of rioting and the consequences of rioting. For the record I think (personal view only) that the Nazi pug man should never have been prosecuted, I personally find it grossly offensive but I think that the harm of stopping people saying these things is greater than the harm of the idiot saying them. The Cheshire thing I fin…

> Is it really the case that it's ok to threaten people or to call for violence against a community in the USA?

In cases like that, courts in the US make the determination as to whether the speech is protected based on whether it may cause “imminent lawless action”—hard to say in the Cheshire case without seeing what they were actually posting, but encouraging people to start violent riots would not be protected in the US either. There are plenty of cases of people getting arrested in the US for Facebook posts inciting violence.

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#527

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It does say at the bottom of the page "A home for poorly researched ideas". So I don't think even he is very confident in what he is saying. I assume they are just trying to be provocative. Judging by the number of comments here, it worked.

This is called lamphshading. Lampshading is when someone acknowledges a flaw or controversial aspect upfront, often humorously or ironically, to deflect criticism or give the appearance of humility or openness. Saying something like "A home for poorly researched ideas" while actually propagating extremist, controversial, or misleading content is a tactic intended to: disarm critics, avoid accountability, and create p…

i.e. the "geohot method". Why this guy still pulls so much traction is a mystery.

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#528

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At this point in time, US is the global leader in personal freedoms, culture and financial opportunities. These are the things people are looking to immigrate towards. Personal freedoms can't be manufactured. They are a product of the underlying system governing a country. The US has very strong institutions and legal framework in the form of the constitution (again, at this point in time; I expect the current admin…

The cultural dominance is ending quickly. Most American TV shows are re-hashes of British shows from the year prior. Today's hip hop for non-geezers is called Phonk, and it doesn't come from the US. Hollywood is making Yet Another Comic Book Movie, over and over again. The source material for these is almost 100 years old.

Pendantic correction: The comic book movies from Marvel are mostly based on 1960s era source material, so more like 60 years old.

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#529
post #382

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also consider that the US is now threatening direct (even neighboring) allies with military intervention (Canada, Denmark). It is very hard to drain brain which considers the US an enemy country. Meanwhile, China is playing the long game and is building infrastructure projects all over the world, including the EU [0] [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pelje%C5%A1ac_Bridge

>Also consider that the US is now threatening direct (even neighboring) allies with military intervention (Canada, Denmark). You have a source for this? I haven't heard of any threat of military intervention for Canada and/or Denmark.

Testerday's speech by the Canadian Prime Minister:

"What he wants is to see a total collapse of the Canadian economy," he explains. "Because that will make it easier to annex us."

Source: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cvgpdk4257zt?post=asset%3A3b...

"Trump has previously spoken of using "economic force" to make Canada the 51st state of America. But he said he was not considering using military force - an assurance he has not given while stating his ambitions of taking the Panama Canal and Greenland."

Source: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cddy2q2z8dzo

Re: The Demoralization is just Beginning

#530

> 1) Brain drain the world. Work visas for [...] literally anyone who produces value. So, to put it in terms of the Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy, they want to drain the rest of the world of everybody but hairdressers and marketing experts?

Sorry you think hairdressers don't create value? I find if I don't cut my hair this is very negative for me, and decreases my productivity!!

:-) Just to be clear: Referring to Douglas Adams here, who obviously meant that as satire. [1]

Of course the serious core here is this: It's assumed here that it would be a trivial matter to be able to see who is adding value and who isn't. I would question that assumption.

[1] https://hitchhikers.fandom.com/wiki/Golgafrinchan_Ark_Fleet_...

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