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The idea that the US protects Taiwan from a possible Chinese invasion over chips is one of those things that sounds believable but really isn't going to happen. From China’s perspective, the cost of war is much higher than the cost of developing these chips themselves. In the worst-case scenario, they would be 2-3 years behind the cutting edge, which is not mission-critical. Most electronics (civilian or military) do…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
“Our continued protection of you is contingent on your investment in us”. Taiwan is hugely reliant on US defense guarantees. The US has a protectionist president who likes big numbers in announcements and a base riled up about American production capacity. Long-term this is bad for Taiwan since it reduces its leverage with the US in administrations with short-term geopolitics (or no real geopolitical talent.) In the…
They only need to make this appear real for 4, maybe 2 years, and can then reevaluate. I'd guess they looked at their options and decided this was the best hedge.
Besides, that rests on the assumption that the US is going to have a “free and fair” election in 2 and 4 years. Trump said loud and clear on the campaign trail that you need to come out and vote for him just this one last time. Won’t need to vote afterwards at all, they’ll fix it.
This seems like one of the promises he’d be really inclined to hold, if he can.
The idea that the US protects Taiwan from a possible Chinese invasion over chips is one of those things that sounds believable but really isn't going to happen. From China’s perspective, the cost of war is much higher than the cost of developing these chips themselves. In the worst-case scenario, they would be 2-3 years behind the cutting edge, which is not mission-critical. Most electronics (civilian or military) do…
Why not destroy the foundries, move all the TSMC employees to the US, rebuild them here (there is no surer investment), and let China have the land?
People aren't random machines that can be moved willy-nilly.
The idea that the US protects Taiwan from a possible Chinese invasion over chips is one of those things that sounds believable but really isn't going to happen. From China’s perspective, the cost of war is much higher than the cost of developing these chips themselves. In the worst-case scenario, they would be 2-3 years behind the cutting edge, which is not mission-critical. Most electronics (civilian or military) do…
Why not destroy the foundries, move all the TSMC employees to the US, rebuild them here (there is no surer investment), and let China have the land?
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> From China’s perspective, the cost of war is much higher than the cost of developing these chips themselves. For China it’s not about the chips. It’s about getting rid of the humiliation that is having a small island, that was originally part of China, not be a part of China.
A 'small' island with one of the most successful and thriving democracies in the East, that has world class industry. China cannot have a successful democracy on their doorstep, it undermines their perception of absolute Chinese superiority.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> From China’s perspective, the cost of war is much higher than the cost of developing these chips themselves. For China it’s not about the chips. It’s about getting rid of the humiliation that is having a small island, that was originally part of China, not be a part of China.
A 'small' island with one of the most successful and thriving democracies in the East, that has world class industry. China cannot have a successful democracy on their doorstep, it undermines their perception of absolute Chinese superiority.
EDIT: I'm literally factually correct. In 5 of the 6 indexes China has a Democracy score where as Brunei, an absolute monarchy, doesn't!
The idea that the US protects Taiwan from a possible Chinese invasion over chips is one of those things that sounds believable but really isn't going to happen. From China’s perspective, the cost of war is much higher than the cost of developing these chips themselves. In the worst-case scenario, they would be 2-3 years behind the cutting edge, which is not mission-critical. Most electronics (civilian or military) do…
> Taiwanese people fight bravely, and Chinese forces turn out to be weaker than expected. In this case, the US would be in a comfortable position to send aid and weapons to help Taiwan, prolonging the war to weaken China. With some luck, a regime change could happen without firing a shot. After 3 years of war they will sell it out to China. Taiwan started the war in the first place, actually.
Also, please take a look here as well, https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43252998
The idea that the US protects Taiwan from a possible Chinese invasion over chips is one of those things that sounds believable but really isn't going to happen. From China’s perspective, the cost of war is much higher than the cost of developing these chips themselves. In the worst-case scenario, they would be 2-3 years behind the cutting edge, which is not mission-critical. Most electronics (civilian or military) do…
You are skipping a very important detail in the whole equation. The detail that teleportation was not invented yet. For China to take over Taiwan, they need to somehow place soldiers in Taiwan, and there's 100 miles of sea that complicate that.
The war over Taiwan is going to be a complex chess match. US wants to keep being able to prevent China from crossing those 100 miles, and China wants to deny the US the ability to do that. US can perform sea and air patrols, but those are quite expensive, and China can try to make them even more expensive. The war is not going to have a clear starting date, like 24-Feb-2022. It's going to be a gradual increase of the invasion threat posed by China that will force the US to increase its local military posture. A certain type of blockade will happen, but it's going to be intentionally unclear how total the blockade will be. The US and its allies will try a measured response. China will try to create tensions it the US alliance. The US will try some sanctions. China will try to seed disinformation inside the US public debate sphere. Costs will ramp up. Etc, etc.
But it's not going to be as simple as the US will look at the problem and will count the beans and call it quits.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
A 'small' island with one of the most successful and thriving democracies in the East, that has world class industry. China cannot have a successful democracy on their doorstep, it undermines their perception of absolute Chinese superiority.
China is a democracy. It's literally what you're describing Taiwan as. That said I do agree that it does cause China's superiority to be called into question. Imagine if the Confederate states of America managed to take hold of Cuba and hold out. EDIT: I'm literally factually correct. In 5 of the 6 indexes China has a Democracy score where as Brunei, an absolute monarchy, doesn't!
The idea that the US protects Taiwan from a possible Chinese invasion over chips is one of those things that sounds believable but really isn't going to happen. From China’s perspective, the cost of war is much higher than the cost of developing these chips themselves. In the worst-case scenario, they would be 2-3 years behind the cutting edge, which is not mission-critical. Most electronics (civilian or military) do…