The next AI winter will be brutal
OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are struggling to build more advanced AI
521–530 of 622 posts
Re: OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are struggling to build more advanced AI
#522Question for the group here: do we honestly feel like we've exhausted the options for delivering value on top of the current generation of LLMs? I lead a team exploring cutting edge LLM applications and end-user features. It's my intuition from experience that we have a LONG way to go. GPT-4o / Claude 3.5 are the go-to models for my team. Every combination of technical investment + LLMs yields a new list of potential…
I have yet to see LLMs provide a positive net value in the first place. They have a long way to go to weigh up for its negative uses in the form of polluting the commons that is the web, propaganda use, etc.
Re: OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are struggling to build more advanced AI
#523Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Whether self awareness is a requirement for AGI definitely gets more into the Philosophy department than the Computer Science department. Depends on how you define “self awareness” but knowing that it doesn't know something instead of hallucinating a plausible-but-wrong is already self awareness of some kind. And it's both highly valuable and beyond current tech's capability.
Good point! I'm wondering wether it would count, if one would extend it with an external program, that gives it feedback during inference (by another prompt) about the correctness of it's output. I guess it wouldn't, because these RAG tools kind of do that and i heard no one calling those self aware.
> if one would extend it with an external program, that gives it feedback
If you have an external program, then by defining it's not self-awareness ;). Also, it's not about correctness per se, but about the model's ability to assess its own knowledge (making a mistake because the model was exposed to mistakes in the training data is fine, hallucinating isn't).
Re: OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are struggling to build more advanced AI
#524What a stupid piece. We are making leaps every 6 months still. Tell me this when there are no developments for 3 years.
I'm curious, what was the leap after GPT-4? What about the leaps after that, given a leap every 6 months?
Some important landmarks since GPT4 was first released (not in chronological order):
- Vast cost reduction (>10x)
- Performance parity of several open source models to GPT4, including some with far fewer parameters
- Much better performance, much larger context window in state-of-the-art closed source LLMs (Claude 3.5 Sonnet)
- Multimodality (audio and vision)
- Prototypes for semi-autonomous agents and chain-of-thought architectures showing promising avenues for progress
Re: OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are struggling to build more advanced AI
#525Earlier quoted context omitted.
The reason people are holding out is that the current generation of models are still pretty poor in many areas. You can have it craft an email, or to review your email, but I wouldn't trust an LLM with anything mission-critical. The accuracy of the generated output is too low be trusted in most practical applications.
Google (even now) wasn't absolutely accurate either. That didn't stop it from becoming many billions worth. > You can have it craft an email, or to review your email, but I wouldn't trust an LLM with anything mission-critical My point is that an entire world lies between these two extremes.
I would say that anything you write can come back to you in the future, so don’t blindly sign your name on anything you didn’t review yourself.
Re: OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are struggling to build more advanced AI
#526Earlier quoted context omitted.
Once we've scraped the internet of its data, we need more data. Robots can take in video/audio data 24/7 and can be placed in your house to record this data by offering services like cooking/cleaning/folding laundry. Yeah, I'll pay $20k to have you record everything that happens in my house if I can stop doing dishes for five years!
There already exists a robot that does the dishes, it's called a dishwasher.
You still need to load it.
Re: OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are struggling to build more advanced AI
#527[dead]
Re: OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are struggling to build more advanced AI
#528Earlier quoted context omitted.
Whether self awareness is a requirement for AGI definitely gets more into the Philosophy department than the Computer Science department. I'm not sure everyone even agrees on what AGI is, but a common test is "can it do what humans can". For example, in this article it says it can't do coding exercises outside the training set. That would definitely be on the "AGI checklist". Basically doing anything that is outside…
Here is an example of a task that I do not believe this generation of LLMs can ever do but that is possible for a human: design a Turing complete programming language that is both human and machine readable and implement a self hosted compiler in this language that self compiles on existing hardware faster than any known language implementation that also self compiles. Additionally, for any syntactically or semantica…
Here is an example of a task that I do not believe this generation of LLMs can ever do but that is possible for an average human: designing a functional trivia app.
There, you don't need to invoke Turing or compiler bootstrapping. You just need one example of a use case where the accuracy of responses is mission critical
Re: OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are struggling to build more advanced AI
#529Earlier quoted context omitted.
I was using an LLM to help spot passive voice in my documents and it told me "We're making" was passive and I should change it to "we are making" to make it active. Leaving aside "we're" and "we are" are the same, it is absolutely active voice
In the process of developing my tool, there are only 5 models (the first 5 in my models dropdown list) that I would use as a writing aide. If you used any other model, it really is a crapshoot with how bad they can be.
OT: Your tool has a typo in the right hand side: "Claude 3.5 Sonnet
Techincal writing checker"
Re: OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are struggling to build more advanced AI
#530Not sure if related or not, Sam Altman, ~12hrs ago: there is no wall [1] [1] https://x.com/sama/status/1856941766915641580
The more Sam Altman posts stuff like this, the more he comes across as a grifter hype man to me