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Sora: Creating video from text

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Re: Sora: Creating video from text

#521

Post by jjice »

cyrialize wrote: post #409

Does anyone know how to handle the depression/doom one feels with these updates? Yes, it's a great technical achievement, but I just worry for the future. We don't have good social safety nets, and we aren't close to UBI. It's difficult for me to see that happen unless something drastic changes. I'm also afraid of one company just having so much power. How does anyone compete?

For what it's worth, there have been a lot of situations like this in the past. Maybe not as fast as this, but tech has displaced jobs so many times like with the cotton gin and computers, but more jobs have come about from those (like probably your job). Now, you can say that this is different but do we really have any data to back that up aside from speed of development?

As for social safety nets: if this affects people as heavily as you think (on an unprecedented, never before seen level), the US will almost certainly put _something_ into place and add some heavy taxes on something like this. If tens of millions of Americans are removed from the work force and can't find other work because of this, they'll form a really strong voting block.

Also consider that things are never perfect. We've had wars around the world for a notable amount of time. Even the US has been in places we shouldn't be for a serious chunk of the last century, but things have worked out. We have a ton of news and access now so we're just more aware of these things.

Hopefully that perspective helps a bit. HN and social media can have "doomer" tones quote a bit. Hopefully some perspective can help show that this may not be as large a change as we think.

Or maybe I'm an idiot, as some child comments may point out shortly.

Re: Sora: Creating video from text

#523

Post by HlessClaudesman »

cyrialize wrote: post #409

Does anyone know how to handle the depression/doom one feels with these updates? Yes, it's a great technical achievement, but I just worry for the future. We don't have good social safety nets, and we aren't close to UBI. It's difficult for me to see that happen unless something drastic changes. I'm also afraid of one company just having so much power. How does anyone compete?

The more I play with AI the more I realise that The "I" part of AI is just clever marketing. People who are freaking out about AI should just play around with it, you will soon realise how fundamental dumb it is, and maybe relax about it.

AI has no spark, no drive, no ambition, no initiative, no theory of mind, and it's not clear to me that it will ever have these things. Right now, it's just a hammer that can build 100 houses a second, but who needs 100 slightly wonky houses?

Re: Sora: Creating video from text

#524

Post by woah »

hansonkd wrote: post #26

Countdown to when studios licensing this for "unlimited" episodes of your favorite series. There was Seinfeld "Nothing, Forever" AI parody, but once the models improve enough and are cheap enough to deploy, studios will license their content for real and just have endless seasons. Or even custom episodes. Imagine if every episode of a TV show was unique to the viewer.

You could have ChatGPT create unlimited simulated forum threads about news articles, but here you are on Hacker News

Re: Sora: Creating video from text

#525

Post by telesilla »

Watching these made me think, I'm going to want to go to the theatre a lot more in the future and see fellow humans in plays, lectures and concerts.

Such achievements in technology must lead to cultural change. Look at how popular vinyl has become, why not theatre again.

Re: Sora: Creating video from text

#527

Post by TaupeRanger »

cyrialize wrote: post #409

Does anyone know how to handle the depression/doom one feels with these updates? Yes, it's a great technical achievement, but I just worry for the future. We don't have good social safety nets, and we aren't close to UBI. It's difficult for me to see that happen unless something drastic changes. I'm also afraid of one company just having so much power. How does anyone compete?

It's literally nothing. Generative images haven't really gotten better at the things people care about, like getting specific details right and matching exact descriptions, and avoiding uncanny animals and humans. There's no reason to think video will be any different. No reason to panic - just take it for what it is: something funny to amuse yourself with for a few hours.

Re: Sora: Creating video from text

#528

Post by taejavu »

max_ wrote: post #316

This is amazing! 1. Why would Adrej Karpathy leave when he knows such an impressive breakthrough is in the pipeline? 2. Why hasn't Ilya Stuskever spoken about this?

No idea for your first question, but wouldn't the answer to the second be "NDA's and or other legal concerns"?

Re: Sora: Creating video from text

#529

Post by slothtrop »

darkhorse13 wrote: post #460

Does anyone else feel a sense of doom from these advancements? I'm definitely not a Luddite, I've been working professionally as a programmer for quite some time now, but I just can't shake this feeling. And this is not in the "I might lose my job to this" kind of feeling, that's obviously there, but it's something deeper, more sinister. I don't think I can explain it properly. Anyway, videos look incredible. I genui…

It allows the technical possibility for a post-truth reality, where it's impossible to tell what's true and what isn't. Every piece of information fed through your machine and smartphone. That's the scariest part to me. We need to get ahead of that, because certain interests will be fabricating things with it.

As jobs go, well, we're a long ways from full automation but this represents some serious growing pains that will decimate certain jobs and replace them with few. Not sure what the reaction will be on the consumption side, revulsion or enthusiasm. The "handcrafted" market will still be there but then you wouldn't really know if any AI was used. In a long enough timeline we can hand-wave this away with UBI/negative tax.

But ah, the most at-risk workers are the professional services, white-collar upper-middle class types, even engineers but to a lesser extent. So I wonder what kind of upheaval that would cause.

Re: Sora: Creating video from text

#530

Post by itissid »

cyrialize wrote: post #409

Does anyone know how to handle the depression/doom one feels with these updates? Yes, it's a great technical achievement, but I just worry for the future. We don't have good social safety nets, and we aren't close to UBI. It's difficult for me to see that happen unless something drastic changes. I'm also afraid of one company just having so much power. How does anyone compete?

And we have been told that with innovation and disruption, a new breed of jobs and skill sets are created. But we don't know (or are very bad at predicting) what those would be, especially now that the world has 100's millions of people linked to these economies (film, writing, gaming).

Many people (including myself) have bought into the narrative that history will repeat here and things will be better eventually, but not how much has to break first, and it's used as a hammer by OpenAI and probably every innovator who disrupted.

They advertised "Safety" but no "Economic Impact" analysis because the latter is less scary and requires difficult predictive work, the former is just narrow legalese defined by 80-year-old congressman they have to abide by to "release" v1.0. There is at-least a Congressional Budget office(CBO) where the 80-year-olds work, flawed as it maybe...

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