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Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

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Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#521

Post by dreen »

odiroot wrote: post #258
r_hoods_ghost wrote: post #149

1. Deglobalization accelerates as the Bretton woods organisations become increasingly irrelevant and trade moves to being bloc and region based. 2. The web continues to fracture into separate Euro, Sino, Russo and Americano nets due to increasingly different views in privacy, surveillance, freedom of speech etc. SV companies are slow to pick up on this. 3. Tech layoffs in the Bay Area intensify. When hiring begins ag…

I think you're more or less spot on, but very far with the last one on UK. The economy is more resilient than you think, especially the City. I have a feeling the war ironically helped. It prevented the finance from moving out to the continent.

The UK government should recover after its aquisition by Samsung. The new owners promise streamlined design of all civic life features.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#522

Post by testmasterflex »

febin wrote: post #300
testmasterflex wrote: post #277

Earlier quoted context omitted.

2. Why or how? People already hate computer generated art/content/copy etc. It makes the media feel fake/useless/unoriginal.

Let's take a reel trending on Instagram, even though same dance moves is copied countless times, it still gets views. Prompt Engineering if utilised by artists who knows how to steal, they can deceive people that generated output is original. A social network that can streamline these into a simple processes can massively onboard new artists who can create art with drastically less efforts.

I think social media + deception is the opposite of the recipe for success going into the next unicorn. (Unless it’s obviously intended, for example having an avatar or a game character as your profile.)

Hence why BeReal became a thing but didn’t take off because it became too easy to fake (user is given a few seconds to correct front photos) + it’s super boring to look at ugly photos from a dark sofa.

People want beautiful hi res real media or completely animated.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#523

Post by weatherlite »

sweezyjeezy wrote: post #482
smugma wrote: post #464

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Americans work 15-20% more hours, at least compared to Europeans ( In almost all fields, Americans make more money. The tech 2X is that historically hiring was done for the Bay Area, where cost of living is crazy, and also just basic supply and demand. If a few dozen engineers can build $100M-1B+ of value, it makes sense to pay them a lot (of investors’ money).

I know, I know. But look at the difference in price worldwide of developers (it's so much more than 10-20%). Think of the 10s of thousands of engineers paid insane starting comp to do feature-work at the tech giants. I don't know, but I think this may well become a thing of the past in the next decade.

If a cheaper human replaced me in my job ...it means humans still do the job and not some A.I so glass half full?

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#524

Post by SyzygistSix »

logicallee wrote: post #93

- Undisputed AGI chatbot. It doesn't get confused or off track anymore, no longer hallucinates false information confidently, and can handle any generic task at around 100 IQ (ChatAGP's current IQ is around 83.) There are no longer any questions that it is AGI, it is undisputed. - but it still can't assemble a sandwich for you because no cheap household robot hands. People realize that they could get a lot more value…

2024: AGI is relegated to sandwich making, putting it on parity with humans.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#525

Post by pfoof »

* there will be another hype for a technology on HN that doesn't introduce anything revolutionary but will have 20 posts on the front page per day (seen this with: SQLite, Postrgres, Rust, Zig; downvotes incoming)

* Twitter users will massively migrate to a new social network (and it won't be Mastodon) like there was exodus from Tumblr to Twitter, and this social network will change ToS to allow NSFW (my bets are Instagram or TikTok)

* There will be a larger recession among video game companies even compared to crypto

* Inflation and energy crisis will cause such a large social unrest in the west that one or two governments will be overthrown, betting on Europe, NZ or Australia

* Plenty of new AI startups will be started, some of them will rise to the level of OpenAI and will be successively acquired by FAANG in the later years

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#526

Post by nkko »

escapecharacter wrote: post #434

- USB 4, Series D will be defined, with 3 possible orientations, one each for display, power and data transfer - Saudi Arabia will release an ethical standards requirement for each of its Western tech company holdings. The exact definition will be confusingly progressive, which will put everyone on guard. - Google will cancel the Search product, with a press release that expounds beautifully about the future. They cl…

- Twitter will be then divided like a Roman empire and each CEO will reign different geo region.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#527

Post by frontman1988 »

China legalizes CRISPR babies and they become popular.

Japan drastically increases immigration to counter population decline.

Covid kills millions of people worldwide again.

Apple manages to create something cool with it's AR tech.

Sites like reddit/4chan/hn become less popular due to generative AI spam.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#528

Post by thibran »

tester756 wrote: post #502
thibran wrote: post #407

2023 will be the year where normal people will be affected by the AI revolution. Other things that might become true: - Autonomous cars drive better than the average human - Robots starts to become a "real" marked - The Ukraine war ends (Russia looses) - Apple will no longer be the second most valuable company of the world - The successor of the mobile phone is presented - First satellites with telecom tower capabili…

Where does your faith in "AI/ML" comes from? I'm hearing about AI being hot since probably 2014 and the biggest its impact that I think is close to me is search & recommendation and I don't think that's gonna change. Autonomous cars aren'g going to be common (let's say >=5% market share) in my country in next 5 years that's for sure

> Where does your faith in "AI/ML" comes from?

Speech-to-Text works quite well these days. AI voices are also quite good, but the brain was missing. Now with ChatGPT we have an acceptable "brain" for the AI. This is why I think we might get this time a "real world" impact (once OpenAI releases an API for ChatGPT).

Robots could become a thing too, just not that quickly, but for the next years I'm quite optimistic.

> Autonomous cars aren'g going to be common

I didn't say common, I just predicted that they will surpass the important threshold of being better than the average human driver.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#529

Post by maerF0x0 »

codegeek wrote: post #505
r_hoods_ghost wrote: post #149

1. Deglobalization accelerates as the Bretton woods organisations become increasingly irrelevant and trade moves to being bloc and region based. 2. The web continues to fracture into separate Euro, Sino, Russo and Americano nets due to increasingly different views in privacy, surveillance, freedom of speech etc. SV companies are slow to pick up on this. 3. Tech layoffs in the Bay Area intensify. When hiring begins ag…

#1 and #3 are contradicting each other. If deglobalization accelerates, why would hiring be anywhere in the world where labor costs are lower ? Shouldn't it be the opposite ? Also, I disagree with #1 and agree with #3 to some extent. I think Globalization is already here and it will only intensify. It is not a zero sum game and all sides can benefit from it considering they stop thinking of Globalization as a bad thi…

Globalization is only good for GDP and only on first order thinking.

Shipping things that could easily have been made local. Second order cost -- Environmental damage.

Concentration of ecological damage (eg smog in China, clear cuts instead of selective foresting etc).

Decreasing the varietals of foods brought to market so they're stable for shipping , easier to grade / machine. Second order cost -- higher risk to crop failures, loss of heirloom / heritage kinds.

IMO much of "Globalization" is really just power and market arbitrage. Things are inherently cheaper or easier there, the people are just poorer and more desperate. As soon as they have a middle class the "advantage" disappears.

Re: Ask HN: What are your predictions for 2023?

#530

Post by closeparen »

codegeek wrote: post #505
r_hoods_ghost wrote: post #149

1. Deglobalization accelerates as the Bretton woods organisations become increasingly irrelevant and trade moves to being bloc and region based. 2. The web continues to fracture into separate Euro, Sino, Russo and Americano nets due to increasingly different views in privacy, surveillance, freedom of speech etc. SV companies are slow to pick up on this. 3. Tech layoffs in the Bay Area intensify. When hiring begins ag…

#1 and #3 are contradicting each other. If deglobalization accelerates, why would hiring be anywhere in the world where labor costs are lower ? Shouldn't it be the opposite ? Also, I disagree with #1 and agree with #3 to some extent. I think Globalization is already here and it will only intensify. It is not a zero sum game and all sides can benefit from it considering they stop thinking of Globalization as a bad thi…

There are 48 US states beyond New York and California.
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