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Lithuania evacuates its embassy in China

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Re: Lithuania evacuates its embassy in China

#521
post #220

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm French, I hope we (France, EU) follow your lead.

I am French as well, and proud to be one. France weights exactly nothing in such politics. Let's take an easier case: the hijacking of the Estonian plane over Belarus to imprison Roman Protasevich ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ryanair_Flight_4978 ). Everyone was outraged, Macron had his martial face to say that we will not tolerate this (I voted for Macron, to be clear). What happened? Exactly nothing. And this is…

> the latest being the Australian submarines, but also our interests in Iran

Good point.

I think Europe is the only continent that can oppose to colonialistic empires like US and China, but needs to have a single voice, France, Germany, Spain, Italy etc. alone are insignificant in the scenario.

Re: Lithuania evacuates its embassy in China

#522

China would be much better off if they just gave up on the whole Taiwan charade. I understand how badly they want to put Taiwan under thumb like they did HK, but Taiwan is really the only issue I foresee with potential to derail China's progress.

It isn't that easy. It's not just China's government that believes Taiwan is part of China — China's people also believe that. There is a saying that if China is democratic, they would have invaded Taiwan yesterday. Or another saying: if the president lets go of Taiwan, the CCP would be overthrown tomorrow. Another factor that complicates things is the fact that Taiwan is a strategic location for the US's military co…

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Re: Lithuania evacuates its embassy in China

#523

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's impossible to do that for larger countries, cooperation with China is the only way. Large economies are too tightly coupled to just cut China off. It would take a decade or two.

Sunk cost fallacy. Anything is possible, it's just a matter of how much pain you're willing to bear for your principles.

my bet is on "no more than the current situation" which is already causing big social issues in all western countries.

Re: Lithuania evacuates its embassy in China

#524

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> and they are willing to fight for it. No, they aren't. China has been making empty threats for literally decades. Yes, I am sure they will throw around more empty threats and not follow through on them. But this "red line" thing is just internal propaganda that they never actually follow through on. It is time the rest of the world stops pretending.

That's because Taiwan had maintained the One China Policy. This worked very very well for decades. It's only recently when they are becoming more serious about true independence that things are souring. Furthermore, China can no longer afford to use empty threats when US warships are inceasingly sailing in China's backyard. Things weren't so militarily contested before.

> China can no longer afford to use empty threats

And yet it keeps making them, and no actually doing anything about any of this.

It has been decades of empty threats. I am sure people said the same thing, the last time more empty threats for made.

Yeah, no. Thats the facts. They keep making empty threats, and not following through on them, and they are still doing that to this day.

> more serious about true independence

Well, Taiwan is already truly independent, and that has been the case for decades. They have their own laws, borders, and taxes. That is what an independent country is.

Furthermore, the official stance of the ruling party, is that they are already independent.

Nothing really needs to change, for them to become independent, because that is already the case.

> had maintained the One China Policy.

They have their own taxes, laws and borders. They are already an independent country, actually. There is nothing to be maintained, other than some fantasy make believe lip service.

Re: Lithuania evacuates its embassy in China

#525

> In November China unilaterally declared that each country’s respective embassy would be demoted to an office headed by a chargé d’affaires, or caretaker. Is this technically an invasion from China since the embassy grounds are theoretically soil of the embassy's country?

No, this whole "embassy grounds are the guest country's territory" thing is a myth. There are special privileges granted to embassies, but they are not technically "foreign soil" or sovereign territory of the guest country.

Re: Lithuania evacuates its embassy in China

#526

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's because Taiwan had maintained the One China Policy. This worked very very well for decades. It's only recently when they are becoming more serious about true independence that things are souring. Furthermore, China can no longer afford to use empty threats when US warships are inceasingly sailing in China's backyard. Things weren't so militarily contested before.

> China can no longer afford to use empty threats And yet it keeps making them, and no actually doing anything about any of this. It has been decades of empty threats. I am sure people said the same thing, the last time more empty threats for made. Yeah, no. Thats the facts. They keep making empty threats, and not following through on them, and they are still doing that to this day. > more serious about true independ…

Of course they keep making them. They don't want bloodshed where it's not needed.

But you seem to think that this trend can go on forever no matter what. That is a dangerous mistake. What's needed is deescalation, not more escalation in the faulty thinking that they will continue to do nothing no matter what happens.

Re: Lithuania evacuates its embassy in China

#527

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am French as well, and proud to be one. France weights exactly nothing in such politics. Let's take an easier case: the hijacking of the Estonian plane over Belarus to imprison Roman Protasevich ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ryanair_Flight_4978 ). Everyone was outraged, Macron had his martial face to say that we will not tolerate this (I voted for Macron, to be clear). What happened? Exactly nothing. And this is…

> the latest being the Australian submarines, but also our interests in Iran Good point. I think Europe is the only continent that can oppose to colonialistic empires like US and China, but needs to have a single voice, France, Germany, Spain, Italy etc. alone are insignificant in the scenario.

The problem is that each of th eEU countries is a country. With its own interests, culture, history.

We are eons from a country such as the USA, which highlights how federal it is. It is still one country, with one president, one army etc.

We (in the EU) are countries that love or hate other for over 1000 years. Some of the dislike is deep, some is surprisingly different now (France and Germany for instance, forever enemies and now counties that are really close to each other thanks to the post-war efforts).

But when it comes to money and politics, we are often each for its own.

Re: Lithuania evacuates its embassy in China

#528
As a Russian I am pretty biased, but I can't help but marvel at the West.

Lithuania started this row over Taiwan. They literally pissed in China's eye, knowing full well what the Chinese response is going to be. But then, somehow, it's still China's fault for engaging in Cold War rhetoric and ratcheting up political aggression? I am sorry, but I don't buy it. The equivalent here would be China opening up a Scotland or a Catalonia embassy in Pekin to troll Spain/UK, then being surprised Spain/UK break off relations.

This whole story also vividly reminds me of what the British did a few months back in the Black Sea. They knowingly sailed too close to Crimea, filmed our response (jets flying overhead, etc), then for weeks showed these clips to the world as proof of "Russian aggression against freedom in Europe." Wtf? Queue eye roll. I see the same dynamic playing out now with China now.

You Westerners go out of your way to initiate conflict, then play the victim card.

It's very strange. I don't understand it.

Re: Lithuania evacuates its embassy in China

#529

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> China can no longer afford to use empty threats And yet it keeps making them, and no actually doing anything about any of this. It has been decades of empty threats. I am sure people said the same thing, the last time more empty threats for made. Yeah, no. Thats the facts. They keep making empty threats, and not following through on them, and they are still doing that to this day. > more serious about true independ…

Of course they keep making them. They don't want bloodshed where it's not needed. But you seem to think that this trend can go on forever no matter what. That is a dangerous mistake. What's needed is deescalation, not more escalation in the faulty thinking that they will continue to do nothing no matter what happens.

> Of course they keep making them. They don't want bloodshed where it's not needed.

Exactly, I agree. They keep making threats, that they don't follow through on, and they will continue to not follow through on them.

Nothing is needed, to do anything, given the fact that Taiwan is already independent, and that has been the case for decades.

> What's needed is deescalation

There is nothing to de-escalate. Taiwan is already an independent country, and it has been so for decades, and that will continue.

They have had their own taxes, laws, and borders for decades. And they have those same things today. Nothing has changed. They are already independent, and that was the case before, and still is now.

And anyway, the only one who can choose to stop making those empty threats is china. Complain at them if you don't like their big talk, and no follow through threats.

Re: Lithuania evacuates its embassy in China

#530
post #220

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm French, I hope we (France, EU) follow your lead.

I am French as well, and proud to be one. France weights exactly nothing in such politics. Let's take an easier case: the hijacking of the Estonian plane over Belarus to imprison Roman Protasevich ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ryanair_Flight_4978 ). Everyone was outraged, Macron had his martial face to say that we will not tolerate this (I voted for Macron, to be clear). What happened? Exactly nothing. And this is…

France weighs very heavily. With Germany, they led the move earlier this year for the investment deal with China. The decision was made to become reliant on China, and the pandemic significantly worsened this dependency because China's faster recovery essentially mitigated the economic effect of the pandemic.

But it was a choice. Germany's politics appears to have been totally compromised at the highest level by Russia and China (Scholz seems to have been hand-picked by China, his positions on China couldn't be more worrying regardless of what he has said in the past month). France is moving in the same direction, although it is hard to separate this from the profound weakness of Macron.

There is no equivalence with the US either. The French position (and German) position on Iran makes no sense, it is the equivalent of: pretend the problem doesn't exist, and it won't exist (again, with policy being led by business interests). The interests of the US overlap totally with the EU, the US has been funding European defence for decades to the tune of tens of trillions but, of course, France and Germany will continue to nuzzle up to Iran, China, and Russia because they waved their chequebook in front of exporters in economically weak regions.

The only saving grace has been the EU which has effectively counterbalanced France and Germany in these areas (they stopped the investment deal with China). But, again, the policy positions of France and Germany are incomprehensible. It is not that France is insignificant but that their policy is totally at odds with the US and the EU. The reason they aren't opposing China is because there is a strong desire to support China.

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