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Plans you're not supposed to talk about

dynomight.net

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Re: Plans you're not supposed to talk about

#521

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The shots are NOT truly protective. The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine has an effectiveness of about 91%. That means in about 9% of cases it is not protective. I'm amazed we are this deep into this pandemic and people still have black and white thinking wrt to vaccinces.

91% is truly protective, as long as that effectiveness lasts long enough to be meaningful. In fact, 91% is an amazingly high number - I don't know if any pre-mRNA vaccine has ever reached that level of effectiveness. So I return to my original point -- if they're really that effective, why the hubbub?

It's quite clear that the person who wrote the comment I'm replying to believes that "truly protective" means 100% protection, and that if the vaccine was "truly protective" you no longer need to worry about getting COVID.

This is a very dangerous idea and why there is so much confusion and misinformation.

By insisting that 91% is "truly effective" in conversations like this you are not helping.

Re: Plans you're not supposed to talk about

#522

This reminds me of CEO-speak. A CEO cannot speak their true mind or their true assessment of a situation. They can't say "wow we're in trouble here" because then people will jump ship and then the company will be even more in trouble (and the CEO would get sued for breaching Fiduciary Duty) What a CEO says is merely wishful thinking for a goal they want people to follow. They can never speak their true plan. (And of…

Which is one of the reasons I took a double take when Elon Musk cancelled the thanksgiving weekend for SpaceX and said the company has "quite frankly, a disaster" and a "a genuine risk of bankruptcy":

https://spaceexplored.com/2021/11/29/spacex-raptor-crisis/

Of course the funny thing was that most shrugged it off as just "Elon being Elon" and discounted his statement as hyperbole.

Re: Plans you're not supposed to talk about

#523
post #182
post #130

As one of the church goers that genuinely believes in God and the afterlife I'm surprised and saddened to hear people attend in disbelief. It's a shame the same community can't be found amongst others that hold similar beliefs. It's sad that someone can't be true to their own beliefs.

Among my atheist friends, a number of them have been quite involved with churches, for the social support, and because they thought it was good for their kids. I once dated an atheist who was appalled almost to the point of deal-breakage that I didn't want to teach my kids the Bible. She couldn't imagine where else they'd learn morals from.

Hint - that was not an atheist. (And not widely read either, because Aesop or De la Fontaine are fabulists with much more easily digestible morals for kids than the bible...)

Re: Plans you're not supposed to talk about

#524

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Vaccines don't prevent spread of Covid.

Vaccines didn't prevent the spread of smallpox either, until they finally did. We're not smallpoxing Covid out of existence without a much better vaccine.

It might not be a feature of the vaccine, but a feature of the combination immune system + virus which doesnt allow us to smallpox Covid out of existence.

Re: Plans you're not supposed to talk about

#525

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You ask a difficult and important question. The two relevant ideas I know are: 1. Chesterton's Fence: "I don't understand why this exists, so let's tear it down" is an big and tempting error. Wait until you understand. 2. Consequences of societal change are inherently unknowable, which is why revolutions usually end in tragedy. The sane approach is to change society incrementally, see what happens, and adjust and lea…

Perhaps I'm being too US-centric but I feel like you at-best mean conservatism with a lower-case 'c'. Even then the very definition of conservatism explicitly avoids any change: > commitment to traditional values and ideas with opposition to change or innovation I've never known conservatism to be anything except opposition to change as that's the most conservative thing you can generally do: nothing.

That definition does not say “avoids any change”. It says it opposes change, which can reasonably be taken as a general leaning. I mean, just think about it, do you think you could find even one single small-c conservative who argues that every possible change is bad?

Re: Plans you're not supposed to talk about

#527

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You ask a difficult and important question. The two relevant ideas I know are: 1. Chesterton's Fence: "I don't understand why this exists, so let's tear it down" is an big and tempting error. Wait until you understand. 2. Consequences of societal change are inherently unknowable, which is why revolutions usually end in tragedy. The sane approach is to change society incrementally, see what happens, and adjust and lea…

> Consequences of societal change are inherently unknowable, which is why revolutions usually end in tragedy. The sane approach is to change society incrementally, see what happens, and adjust and learn as you go. > The educated reader may notice that 1+2 is pretty much the sane version of Conservatism. Incremental slow change sounds good if you are reasonably happy with the current situation. If you children are get…

> If you children are getting killed, beaten, and imprisoned by the legal system, and have no access to good education, you might want to move a little quicker.

"People are suffering now" is not a good blanket argument for rapid change. First, it needs to be shown that the changes proposed will not be worse than the original condition.

To use your example, last summer many people were arguing for quickly defunding the police. While that would certainly solve the problem of children suffering under the legal system, it might also result in vigilante groups stepping up to enforce the law, or in increased urban gang activity, or in increased domestic violence, any of which might end up with increased overall victimization of children.

My personal opinion is that individual jurisdictions should experiment more at a small scale. Maybe SF abolishes the police, and Minneapolis increases funding for social work, and the Chicago police install robocops at every corner, and Nashville provides benefits only to families which stay intact. Then after two years it will be obvious which policies _really_ don't work, and after five years there will be a good handle on the set of policies that might work, and after fourty years most of the magnitudes of the possible second- and third-order effects will be understood, at least as well as it is possible to know them.

But it is impossible to have local experiments when the popular call is for immediate action on the national level. Alas, one is left with digging through the archves of history and trying to see where natural experiments have been done, and what confounding variables there were.

Re: Plans you're not supposed to talk about

#528

Is there anyone married here that use jewellery, signed contracts with the state and threw a big wedding party as a strategy to be very embarrassing and costly to you, the couple, to break up?

Or "joined a religion" at the age of 30 for that purpose.

Re: Plans you're not supposed to talk about

#529
post #472

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just because seatbelts are "truly protective" that doesn't mean that getting into accidents is risk free.

Just because driving a car isn’t risk free doesn’t mean you outlaw cars. You take the sensible precautions that are available and accept that a life worth living involves a certain amount of risk.

Exactly! We don't outlaw cars.

But we have speed limits, stop signs, seat belt regulations, airbag requirements, crumble zones, crash tests, driver training and testing, significant drunk driving laws, ...

If we had equivalent sensible precautions for COVID as we have for cars, mask mandates and vaccination requirements would be the minimum and carry significant penalties.

Re: Plans you're not supposed to talk about

#530
post #472

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just because driving a car isn’t risk free doesn’t mean you outlaw cars. You take the sensible precautions that are available and accept that a life worth living involves a certain amount of risk.

We did outlaw driving without seatbelts. Against strong protests at the time.

We don’t know what happened in the alternate universe where there were no seatbelt laws. Maybe there are people here who died because they stubbornly refused to ever wear a seatbelt because they had taken a public stance against seatbelts and made not wearing a seatbelt into a noble fight against tyranny. Maybe in the other universe they’re still alive because they were able to come around and change their mind without feeling like they lost a fight and were admitting defeat.

But I guess we’ll never know, because if you think something is a good idea what you should do is immediately use the government to coerce everybody into doing it under threat of fines and punishment.

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