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Crazy New Ideas

paulgraham.com

521–530 of 808 posts

Re: Crazy New Ideas

#521

HN comment section pessimism is a new metric for evaluating your odds of success. "It's too expensive" or "Nobody needs it because we have X" on a project lead by a domain expert is not constructive criticism or conservatism, it's pure envy. PG isn't defending Mighty, Dropbox or Coinbase because he has skin in the game, but because he knows what the teams have achieved and what they could potentially achieve. I don't…

> HN comment section pessimism is a new metric for evaluating your odds of success.

The success of a startup depends on many factors and pessimism on HN is definitely not one of them. HN is a forum where people intellectualize things from their limited point of view. It is usually not the primary forum where the founders seek feedback. I think HN is a remix of the old slashdot forums with a healthy mix of digg + reddit.

Re: Crazy New Ideas

#522
post #488

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can't post personal attacks like this to HN, regardless of who you're attacking. Perhaps you don't feel that you owe $person better, but you owe this community much better if you want to participate here. You crossed badly into bannable territory in this thread. I've responded in more detail here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27066921 .

How exactly would we deal with this issue then? I'm sure you've seen where people have accused you of editing Austin Allred's username on his account. Nobody else can do that.If I believe that lambda school or coinbase has been involved in shady business practices, is HN not the place to discuss that? Do you not have a conflict of interest here?

(Although your account is rate-limited because of the quantity of flamewar comments you've posted, I've temporarily turned the rate limit off so you can reply. You don't need to create new accounts, which HN's anti-troll software is rejecting anyhow.)

You posted surprisingly vicious smears in this thread, even blaming one person for the death of another. Some of that you edited in an extremely misleading way, so that the community's original response seemed unreasonable, when in fact it had been appropriate. Even in the above comment, which is still up, you've accused someone of being fake, fraudulent, and dishonest, with zero basis. When asked not to do any of this, you haven't even acknowledged what you did—instead you're changing the subject dramatically. Isn't that a little distasteful?

> I'm sure you've seen where people have accused you

Since you saw the thread where people were bringing it up, I'm surprised you didn't see the explanations:

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26959559

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26959675

> is HN not the place to discuss that

People discuss companies, including YC-funded companies, at great length on HN all the time. That's not the issue here. The issue is that you've been breaking the site guidelines very badly, and we need you to stop.

> Do you not have a conflict of interest

I've written extensively about that over the years. If you or anyone is interested, some of those past explanations can be found at the following links:

https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&qu...

https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&so...

The short version is that we don't moderate HN to suppress criticism of YC or YC startups, because that would be (a) wrong, (b) futile, and (c) dumb. We moderate HN to try to keep it interesting and in line with the site guidelines (https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html) — that's all. I'd never claim to be immune from bias (who could?) but I can tell you what principles we try to apply and can at least claim to have years' worth of practice at them.

There's nothing secret here, by the way, in the sense that anyone can get an answer to any question about how HN works (other than technical details about anti-abuse software, and that only because they would stop working if they weren't secret). Trying to run an online community any other way would be inefficient and self-defeating. We try to never do anything that isn't defensible to the community, because the community's good will is the only asset HN has.

I completely understand how easy it is for unexplained details to compound into weird and sinister pictures. That's a fact of human life that we all have to deal with, especially online. But really the cleanest and freshest way to deal with it is to check what's actually happening, when that option is available. HN, even though it has millions of users, is still small enough that that option is actually available. Why not take advantage of that?

Re: Crazy New Ideas

#523

HN comment section pessimism is a new metric for evaluating your odds of success. "It's too expensive" or "Nobody needs it because we have X" on a project lead by a domain expert is not constructive criticism or conservatism, it's pure envy. PG isn't defending Mighty, Dropbox or Coinbase because he has skin in the game, but because he knows what the teams have achieved and what they could potentially achieve. I don't…

If they pivot, does that mean the negative feedback was right or is it always wrong? What if the feedback precipitates the pivot?

I have no idea if Mighty will succeed or not. But I suspect it will not succeed as a a $30/mo consumer product. Indeed, I'd bet money on it. The companies everyone keeps referencing were free products. I got excited about Dropbox. So did my friends. No friend has excitedly sent me a link to Mighty.

I'm sure some professionals will pay though. How many and how many they need to hit their numbers is another question. They can still probably ride the hype machine to an exit.

Re: Crazy New Ideas

#524
post #388

Lots of comments already, but I'll chime on in. I realized this very late in life, but I have a test for when it's time to pay attention to a new technology. It's when technical people look at what seems like a groundbreaking idea, seem unimpressed, and say "couldn't you just _____", were the blank is filled with something a nontechnical person doesn't understand or considers very cumbersome. The web: couldn't you ju…

> twitter: couldn't you just not?

This is, actually, still true :)

Re: Crazy New Ideas

#525
post #359
post #177

>The reason is that everyone is too conservative. Everyone isn't too conservative: veterans in a field are conservative because they have earned the war wounds they carry. Which is why you tend to see "disruptive apps" targeting younger people. They don't have the life experience to understand, at first glance, why an idea may be extremely dangerous. I'm young enough to remember being that way myself: Who cares if so…

From the article, PG argues that the crazy idea should be taken seriously predicated on the person having deep domain expertise. I don't think anyone with deep domain experience in banking would say "Who cares if someone gets my bank account info"

> PG argues that the crazy idea should be taken seriously predicated on the person having deep domain expertise

Depending on what you mean by "seriously". It's not that a crazy idea by a domain expert is certainly the future - but they might be right 1 out of 10 times, compared to a crazy idea by a nobody who might be right 1/1000. Given the potential large return of crazy ideas, it's worth the time to investigate in more detail.

Re: Crazy New Ideas

#526

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Mighty isn't "better chrome"! It's a whole thin client proxy-service privacy-nightmare. It's more and more centralising of everything under corporate control with the payoff to users of marginal gains in speed. Kill it with fire.

The money will be made by charging corporations, edu's & gov's who want just that : centralized control.

Yes. Unless they can figure out how to be free to consumers.

Re: Crazy New Ideas

#528
The alternative, of course, is when a plausible person expresses an implausible-sounding idea which turns out to be, well, wrong. For instance when Noam Chomsky presented his theory of Universal Grammar[1] which managed to impede and derail the study of linguistics for decades[2].

[1] - This is my own personal opinion supported by no evidence whatsoever.

[2] - Again, an outrageously subjective statement without an ounce of evidence to support it.

Re: Crazy New Ideas

#529

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fully agreed. A lazy article all-round. Where are the examples? Where are the pitfalls? Is the insight merely that some wacky ideas turn out to be right sometimes? Yeah, sure so how can we tell in advance? How is this actionable? And his answer is: listen to reasonable domain experts . That phrase is doing some real heavy lifting there...

Pretty much all of his articles are similarly lazy (edit: and usually articles from other top SV folks). I'm always astonished that people upvote his stuff. I've come to think of it as an HN tax: we get a well-moderated forum with otherwise good content and in return we have to scroll past one extra article every month or so.

> I've come to think of it as an HN tax

That's a great way to put it!

All this stuff about Copernicus, Darwin, Galileo... You're not revolutionizing our understanding of humanity's place in the universe... You're buying companies that make filesharing apps and (often untaxed) hostel booking websites.

Re: Crazy New Ideas

#530
post #483

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But why? Because cancer is incredibly complicated and requires incredible amounts of data, analysis, and *collaboration*.

The "but why" question was not pointed at visualizing 1TB of single cell RNA sequence data or collaboration. It was pointed at why you'd want to do it in a browser? Why wouldn't you be able to make links and share them from a native application that they can then open in their application? Maybe I'm missing something in your problem statement but are you downloading all that 1TB in your browser window and changing pa…

This is slightly what I'm thinking, for that particular use case.

The idea that you're going to shove 1TB of data down to the client strikes me as slightly unhinged. Even if we assume you can achieve a sustained transfer rate of one gigabit per second, it's going to take over 2 hours to get a terabyte shoved down to the client. I'm guessing, though, that the actual vizualization is nowhere near one terabyte. Data's going to have to be aggregated somehow, because no computer monitor can display a terabyte worth of information all at once. Even a 4K monitor would fall short by many orders of magnitude.

It would be much faster, and, I think, simpler, to keep the data on a central server, have it generate the visualizations, and push them down to the client.

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