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Modeling a Wealth Tax

paulgraham.com

521–530 of 1001 posts

Re: Modeling a Wealth Tax

#521
post #493

For a guy who's always railing about the value of honest, rational discourse, he's unbelievably misleading and political in this post. He ignores asset growth and the fact that all the wealth tax proposals have a very high floor for the tax. Saying the government will take 45% of your wealth above $100M is very different than saying the government will take 45% of your wealth.

> For a guy who's always railing about the value of honest, rational discourse, he's unbelievably misleading and political in this post. Where does pg rail about honest rational discourse? If you follow him on twitter for the last couple of years it's been nothing but pontification.

Eh? Pg’s twitter account is one of the most interesting. I follow over a thousand, and pg is hardly a blip when it comes to pontification. (That word is surprisingly hard to spell out.)

Re: Modeling a Wealth Tax

#522

It's important to note that leaving the United States to avoid future taxation is not an option for even upper middle class without serious penalty. The US is the only country in the world that taxes their citizens who are residing in other countries. Even if you move to another county, you still pay US taxes every year. If you'd like to renounce your citizenship to avoid that, the US has that covered. There is also…

> It's important to note that leaving the United States to avoid future taxation is not an option for even upper middle class without serious penalty.

OK, but if the "wealth tax" applies to the upper middle class, that's a serious policy failure.

(Of course, the income tax rates the upper middle class pay were originally intended only for the very wealthy, so...)

Re: Modeling a Wealth Tax

#523

Perhaps notable: Switzerland has a wealth tax (of up to 0.3%), and there is zero evidence that this has any deterrent effect on wealthy people settling in Switzerland or startups being created in Switzerland. Other features of the tax system more than offset the 0.3% wealth tax. Personally, I am a bit disappointed by the lack of depth of the discourse: Wealth taxes and their effect have been studied quite a bit in ec…

I never understood..what’s the fascination in turning one county into another? We have Switzerland, France, Belgium, Germany. Why force America to become one of these? Those countries already exist. Turning one country into another doesn’t make sense and isn’t what makes America unique. Imagine I moved to Germany and kept stating “Germany should be more like America because X Y and Z.” Can you imagine how offensive t…

It's not about turning the US into a European country, it's about decreasing wealth inequality. The US is doing a lot worse than the countries you mention--Gini of 41 for the US, vs 27-32 for Switzerland, France, Belgium, Germany. The poverty rate and poverty gaps are also a lot higher in the US. https://data.oecd.org/inequality/poverty-gap.htm

Re: Modeling a Wealth Tax

#524
post #202

Unpopular opinion: Near 50% of American pay ZERO tax whatsoever. The top 10% of all Americans pay 69% of all taxes currently. This is a point 'left out' of current discussions. How about instead of increasing entitlements and stealing more from people that created wealth - we lower the size of the government spending UNTIL it matches where most people pay for the services received in a more scaled manner. https://tax…

Also 3 people own more the those 50% of Americans[0]. I find it hard to believe 1 person is responsible for as much as 50 million people, and these 3 richest people leveraged other peoples labor to create this wealth. With Bezos as an example would he have anything at all with out the internet (created by DARPA) or the transportation infrastructure maintained by our tax dollars? What you are calling stealing is simpl…

I'm not surprised by it, why would you? A few people in a generation have the spectacular combination of luck + 'wind behind their back' to accomplish more than millions of people I would suggest. How many people go through life accomplishing relatively little - holding themselves to subpar standards?

A thought example is Einstein, Feynman, Bohr compared to 'common folks' - same thing, different domain.

Re: Modeling a Wealth Tax

#525

Perhaps notable: Switzerland has a wealth tax (of up to 0.3%), and there is zero evidence that this has any deterrent effect on wealthy people settling in Switzerland or startups being created in Switzerland. Other features of the tax system more than offset the 0.3% wealth tax. Personally, I am a bit disappointed by the lack of depth of the discourse: Wealth taxes and their effect have been studied quite a bit in ec…

I'm not sure european examples are a great comparison. First, most european wealth taxes (including recently defunct ones) have much lower floors than US proposals. $1m instead of $100m. That changes a lot. France did experience "capital flight," famously Gerard Depardieu. Second, "capital flight" has always been present in Europe. There's a long history of it, and practical realities make it relevant. I do agree abo…

> But, to be nuanced we also need to address the core question: "are billionaires bad for the rest of us?" That is the premise of a wealth tax, at least the currently popular one.

Suppose we impose such a tax. How will that affect wealth formation and accumulation by not-yet-billionaires, and how will it affect existing billionaires? As you say, Bezos and Buffet would continue being billionaires, but if new billionaires became an impossibility, then such a tax will essentially be creating barriers to competition with existing billionaires! That would be a billionaire protectionist measure disguised as a populist measure!!

If we see existing billionaires support such a measure, then we'll know they likely don't see it hurting them. Kinda like when Buffet advocated for higher income taxes knowing full well he has no taxable income (all his "income" as most people imagine it is just unrealized -and therefore untaxed- capital gains).

Also, the biggest problem with any new tax is that without a hard cap on rates it's difficult to predict what it will be in the future. When the income tax was proposed in the U.S. it was said it would never rise above 5%, but marginal income tax rates in the U.S. have been north of 90% (yet, of course, these never reach the super rich as explained earlier). A wealth tax might come with "it will never be higher than 0.2%!" claims, then rise to 5% anyways. If it comes with such a claim, that limit needs to be baked into the Constitution.

Besides the intended political and economic effects of a tax, its unintended economic impact, there's the question of how much revenue it will raise and what that shall be used for. Leviathan never shrinks, so a decision to enlarge it should not be made lightly.

Re: Modeling a Wealth Tax

#526
post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> a wealth tax is a percentage of the dollar value of wealth, not a percentage of the number of shares of stock you own. If I expropriate 5% of your wealth, and ~100% of your wealth is in shares of stock, what percent of your shares have I taken?

The answer is: it depends on the fair market value of the shares of stock I own. If the shares are publicly traded, there's an easy answer. If they're not publicly traded, it depends on how FMV is determined, but it would not surprise me if the wealth tax allowed the 409A valuation to be used for this purpose.

You have x shares of stock, each worth $a. Your net worth is $ax.

The government wants p% of your wealth, so it takes p * (ax) dollars from you. I hope we can agree that this is the same as a * (px). In other words, they've taken p% of your shares.

Why does any of this depend on mumbo jumbo about FMV and 409A valuations?

Re: Modeling a Wealth Tax

#527

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’d gladly pay 100% inheritance tax on exchange for zero taxes during life. Would anyone else go for a deal like that?

interesting idea, but I think I would decline. I don't plan on having children, but I would like the primary beneficiaries of my excess productivity to be my friends and family. plus, I think it sets up a weird incentive to spend as much of your money as possible before you die, which causes a big problem if you live longer than you planned. I actually think the current US estate tax rules (minus the loopholes) are p…

If you're working for a firm that isn't actively tanking, then the primary beneficiaries of your excess productivity are always your employers. As many other people here have said the floor of any wealth tax is far higher than anything you could ever accumulate on a salary income.

Re: Modeling a Wealth Tax

#528

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>If you have a bucket of money that isn't doing anything, then what value does it actually bring to the economy Wealthy people don't just leave their money under a mattress, they invest it in something. Even if they just left it in a bank, the bank is still going to lend that money out and invest it. Taxing wealth just encourages riskier investments, as higher risk is needed to achieve comparable post-tax return.

Exactly. Capital gains tax is equivalent to a wealth tax on appreciating assets only, which is the only kind of assets you should be targeting with a wealth tax. So just implement a sensible capital gains tax, and you're done.

Considering it's the ones who hold the largest pools of assets affected who can buy the changes to the tax code to build loopholes to get themselves exempted, that seems about impossible.

Re: Modeling a Wealth Tax

#530
post #202

Unpopular opinion: Near 50% of American pay ZERO tax whatsoever. The top 10% of all Americans pay 69% of all taxes currently. This is a point 'left out' of current discussions. How about instead of increasing entitlements and stealing more from people that created wealth - we lower the size of the government spending UNTIL it matches where most people pay for the services received in a more scaled manner. https://tax…

> Near 50% of American pay ZERO tax whatsoever. As stated, that is completely and unequivocally false. Near 50% of Americans pay no "Federal income tax" where "Federal income tax" is arbitrarily defined to not include payroll taxes despite them being a Federal tax on income. They still pay payroll taxes, state income tax, sales tax, etc.

Semantics, I believe. The meta-point to be derived is that the top 10% pay a majority of all taxes in actual dollar value.
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