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U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

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Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#521
post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is a bet on the continued support of the market by the Fed. If you're interested in preserving purchasing power 15 years from now, would you rather hold dollars or things today? As a value investor, all of my theses were blown out of the water by the unprecedented Fed intervention. It is an environment in which the fundamentals are uncertain. I'm standing pat and waiting for things to make sense before moving agai…

1. P/e does not mean much without context. Certainly not what the value of a company should be. 2. Fed helped and did what they are supposed to, which is good for everyone. 3. Market is forward looking and it should be, otherwise it would be dumb. In other words corona will pass, it is not the end of the world and if stocks went too deep, potential earnings from stocks within 5-10 years down the line would be huge, s…

>> 2. Fed helped and did what they are supposed to, which is good for everyone.

Good for everyone. Much better for asset holders in a relative sense. Populism will continue to rise.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#522
post #268

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Lenders and banks were supposed to start going easy on loans but ive had two emails and a phone call about the loan for my Silverado this month and wouldnt you know, the caller was excited to mention my stimulus check. Don't settle for this. My niece had her car repossessed 3 weeks ago. They said for $18k cash she could have it. We told them to pound sand. She's borrowing cars and getting rides, but next week she'l…

The used car market has been inflated for years. 100k+ mile vehicles selling for over half their new price makes no sense to me.

Low end car flipper here, it really depends on what slice of the used car market you're talking about. Think about what kind of people buy what vehicles, the kind of money they have and where the supply of those vehicles comes from and it all makes sense IMO.

Used cars are an immensely diverse range of "products". You've got $500 Aveos that Jimbo or Manuel will have no regrets hauling an I-beam on the roof of, you've got $25k 25yo 4Runners that 25yo software engineers with six figures of salary and minimal expensive responsibilities will talk themselves into paying asking price for because it's what they grew up getting dragged around in.

The market for anything new enough to get a loan on is always inflated, obviously, that's what easy financing does.

For the last 4yr or so the bottom the the market, non-japanese compacts and subcompacts with 15k+, 90s junk that needs work, Altimas in perfect condition but with a time bomb CVT and 80k on them, etc, unfashionable midsize SUVs from the '00s was just fine. You could pick up running, driving, has one or two known mechanical issues that need to be addressed 10-25yo vehicles for $1500 all day long, non-running for even less.

The market for low mile, low flair, A to B commuting and family hauling vehicles in good cosmetic condition that people who think "good schools" means "no poors" and worry about what their neighbors think of their lawn buy for their kids to go to college in or slightly less well off kids have to buy for themselves after college were what was inflated, like 5k+ for a Japanese crossover from '01 with 250k on it inflated. These vehicles have become less and less common because the white collar upper middle class crowd that keeps things nice but changes cars decently regularly has been leasing more and more.

If you were wiling to clean the ever living crap out of a kid-stained interior or get some cosmetic body damage fixed (or just ignore it and live with the ugliness), or (get your pearls ready folks), , drive a domestic that isn't a pickup, you could get cars of the same, age miles and mechanical condition for $1500-$3000 instead of $4k on up. These vehicles are plentiful because the middle class has been buying them CPO off lease and using the piss out of them hauling around their families, commuting a ton of miles, etc, etc and then ditching them for another one when they feel they are too old/beat. This is the niche I specialize in and I think these vehicles are a great value.

Basically the stuff that white collar professionals feel is the bare minimum of what they or their kids can drive without looking below their class has been ludicrously overpriced because (surprise, surprise) those people have a decent chunk of change to throw around and supply has been dwindling.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#523

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Bernie Sanders was, as far as I can see, our last shot at reversing the trend from within the current system" If anything, Bernie Sanders was our first, worst shot at structural economic change. In fact, every candidate on stage during those Democratic debates was running far, far to the economic left of Barack Obama, John Kerry, Al Gore or either Clinton. With some historical perspective, you might see that the tid…

In practice, none of them would actually have implemented it, except the only one with a history of going against party and lobby. Barack Obama ran far to the left of Barack Obama, but ended up compromising with Republicans for some absurd reason as he held both the house and senate, to the degree where he passed Mitt Romney's proposal while dragging his feet. None of them except for Bernie Sanders was willing to rec…

"none of them would actually have implemented it, except the only one with a history of going against party and lobby"

Why would the person with few allies and hostile relations with various power players be the one who could "actually" implement anything? Barack Obama had a senate majority that Bernie would have killed for in his hypothetical first term, but Obama still couldn't get his own party to even consider a public option. Things have changed compared to them, but not so much that any 51-seat senate majority could pass anything close to what Bernie calls for. It's beyond unrealistic to pretend otherwise.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#524
post #501

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On top of that, an even greater fraction of people who believe that the administration is incompetent, believe the correct solution to that predicament is to vote the opposite party come election time. It’s as if change in the election system isn’t even an option.

You have to pick your battles. Changing the election system is really hard. There are legitimate policy disagreements one can have with the Democrats, but one thing you cannot say about them is that they are brazenly corrupt and hostile to facts. Donald Trump is both. He is proud of these things. He thinks they're features, not bugs, and about 40% of American voters seem to agree. As long as that remains the case, no…

Certainly Democrats are just as corrupt and hostile to facts as Republicans (the set of denied facts will be different of course). Only a partisan would claim otherwise.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#525
post #466

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People bring it up because it's true . https://www.vox.com/2014/7/1/5843316/the-case-for-canada

[flagged]

> That's because Canada isn't particularly socialist

Indeed! Just as those in the States are asking for policies that aren't socialist, but democratic socialism. There is a difference!

No one is advocating for Venezuela, just the rest of the first world.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#526
post #98

This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating. My job just cut benefits and hours but we're "essential." Remembe…

STEM jobs are starting to feel the pain too. They also make their money by selling to other companies and people who are hurting. The Behemoths are doing alright but there are so many business areas of software that are about to crash into the rocks fairly soon because their customer base has disappeared.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#527

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I don't need to explain what a 10-20% death rate would do to society, however. Not much if 80% of them are very old and sick.

Keep in mind death is not the only negative outcome of this. My wife's uncle is relatively young (50s), completely healthy, gainfully employed, and has contracted Covid. He's been in the hospital for over a month, has been on a ventilator for weeks, is currently off but has been in and out of the ICU, his lung has collapsed, he can't feed himself, he can't walk, and he's currently re-learning how to swallow. If he ma…

This is absolutely true and this would get a lot worse if people decide to end the lockdown early. If one needs money to feed their family now, the chance of them either passing or being incapacitated are not to be taken lightly.

I had hoped the government would freeze all the mortgages, bills and offered real assistance to people in need. The stimulus check for the hoi polloi is a joke. I personally don't need it, why did I get it? I know I could donate it to the poor but that's not the point I'm trying to make. That stimulus seems to be a way of saying "but we already helped you".

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#528
post #242
post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The S&P is where it was in October last year, there, it just erased the massive gain in Q1 this year. No serious recession is priced in really. And the only thing that can explain where the stocks are now is that the Fed has pushed 2 trillions of liquidity into the market in matter of weeks, which is just unprecendented (the previous QE were much more gradual) and that lifted all asset classes. But at one point stock…

> No serious recession is priced in really. That's not entirely true, the composition of the S&P500 has pretty dramatically changed in the last few months[1]. If you look at the linked chart most sectors are down — energy is -50%, consumer discretionary is -27%, financials are -22%. However, a few sectors are up — healthcare is +5%, consumer staples +6.5%, information technology is +8.5%. So with shelter-in-place and…

> So the reason why the market cap of the S&P500 hasn't changed dramatically is because the distribution of the money underlying it has. The S&P500 is a capitalization-weighted index.

That's super interesting and makes a lot of sense. However, could you elaborate a bit further? Suppose we have an S&P 5, if the top 5 companies remain the same, but they on average do worse, we'd see the S&P 5 go down. You seem to imply, if I understand correctly, that the S&P 5 is not down as much because 1 company did really well and stayed, 4 that did poorly left and got replaced by 4 companies that did really well, too. Thereby the S&P 5 changed its composition.

And that makes some sense. However, that would mean that if you had an all-world or all-us stock indexes, which did not exclude any companies dropping out of a top 100 or top 500 or whatever, would have to see a large drop.

And I'm not really seeing that. These stock indices track roughly the same shapes as the S&P500, with perhaps few percentage off, but nothing substantial.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#529
post #98

This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating. My job just cut benefits and hours but we're "essential." Remembe…

> This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating. Thanks for posting this comment. I know it sounds trite, but I’…

for investors there is no gain so far, definitely worse than those who did not or could not invest. I think most if not all of "us" are still under deep water, my 401K became 201K a few weeks ago, now it's about 301K, so as a matter of fact, this is a loss year for people who saved to invest, worse than those who did not invest.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#530

It's pretty insane that the S&P500 is higher than it was during October last year, hell even something like 7% higher than it was last year May. There was a post on reddit joking about a guy going into a coma last year after having purchased a share of an S&P500 ETF, waking up today and hearing the news of a global pandemic, people were told to quarantine at home for more than a month, a quarter million people died,…

I know, this is just terrible. The rich insulated themselves from any risk and in case of calamities like they double up. I don't know what we're on to next.
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