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Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

bloomberg.com

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Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#521

Post by bduerst »

tempguy9999 wrote: post #264
asdf21 wrote: post #241

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are strategic bankruptcies..

Serious question: how do these work, and can you actually make money off. or can you only limit cash losses with them?

Only as a last ditch attempt to preserve some business assets and wipe out debt, after exhausting all other options to raise cash, improve sales, refinance, issue equity, restructure, or other normal business operations to keep the company operating.

And no, those six bankruptcies were not strategic, they were failures to operate a business. One bankruptcy is strategic, two a coincidence, six a signal of incompetence. The sheer number of shell corps he's founded and thousands of civil court cases points to exploiting investors through shady practices.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#522

Post by war1025 »

TuringNYC wrote: post #397
zanny wrote: post #372

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> So this will be worse that 2008. 2008 was bad because the collective banks of the US realized trillions in mortgages were money on the books that wasn't real and was never going to be real. The correction involved resetting said books and taking a few banks and a trillion dollars of US taxpayer money along the way. What is the correction this time? All it would really be is a run on confidence in global financial m…

It is very hard to speculate about future crises since often the causes are only obvious in hindsight...but...here I go speculating anyway :-) Firstly, I totally agree with you on 2008 - bank failure driven recessions are always worse than regular recessions, so 2008 already takes a lead. However, there is another aspect -- the 2008 crisis was controlled by a combination of controlling interest rates and other QE mea…

Seems like maybe it wasn't the best idea to use a "one time use" tool to battle the recession since we know they come on a more of less predictable basis over the long term...

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#523

Post by deegles »

refurb wrote: post #206
sxcurry wrote: post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As Paul Krugman says, "What looks like raw ignorance and prejudice is, in fact, raw ignorance and prejudice".

I’m no fan of the President, but Paul Krugman’s rants have gone from heated to just bizarre at this point. Shows that even Noble laureate’s aren’t immune from going off the rails.

Do you think it's more likely that a Nobel laureate has gone off the rails, or that they are using the same skills and knowledge that got them a Nobel to analyze the current situation?

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#524

Post by DataWorker »

throwaway5752 wrote: post #109

Everyone serious knew that a trade war would set a recession in motion, and that it would be a trade war the US would lose because of the directionality of the trade. The thought has always been that the president was using a high leverage negotiating strategy (see https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/for-trump-diplomacy... , for example) to extract maximal concessions from PRC. But in the end, most of the people…

Or debt cycles exist.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#525

Post by carlmr »

vinay427 wrote: post #445
dragontamer wrote: post #389

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is that "Deep State" is a loaded term. You could very well argue that the N-word is a historically accurate (and Latin) way to describe African Americans. Instead of using "Deep State", it might be better to say "Agency Directors", if you wanted to use neutral language. "Deep State" is loaded. Of course, its more popular these days to value-signal which side of an argument you're on, rather than appearing…

The "real" N-word is also similar to or identical to today's equivalents in Germanic languages (e.g. German, Dutch).

At least in German it's not used anymore, since it sounds similar enough to the English version everybody knows.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#526

Post by eclipxe »

AlexCoventry wrote: post #356
tunesmith wrote: post #343

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Philosophical question - why is that important to know? What added value is discovered by realizing your opponent's conclusion is not based off of bad facts or faulty reasoning, but different values?

It makes you more persuasive. You can align your arguments to their values.

What if they have no values/their views are not based in anything rational or rooted in fact?

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#527

Post by eclipxe »

war1025 wrote: post #522
TuringNYC wrote: post #397

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is very hard to speculate about future crises since often the causes are only obvious in hindsight...but...here I go speculating anyway :-) Firstly, I totally agree with you on 2008 - bank failure driven recessions are always worse than regular recessions, so 2008 already takes a lead. However, there is another aspect -- the 2008 crisis was controlled by a combination of controlling interest rates and other QE mea…

Seems like maybe it wasn't the best idea to use a "one time use" tool to battle the recession since we know they come on a more of less predictable basis over the long term...

Or maybe we used the tool too long and should have started raising rates much sooner.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#528

Post by joshlegs »

dobleboble wrote: post #355
JeremyNT wrote: post #265

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Regardless of the man himself, historically the "deep state" (for lack of a better phrase) has so much inertia that radical changes (even if desired) by the White House end up moderated. I think it's more correct to say that people are realizing that the old order under the president is gradually eroding and its moderating effects are weakening, which adds compounding risks (directly in the trade war stuff but also h…

"federal government" is probably a better term than "deep state" unless you're intentionally trying to be inflammatory...

hell, or even just good ole 'institutionalism'. "Deep state" sure does imply conspiracies afoot, and it's hardly such a thing. really it's just plain ole bureaucracy

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#529

Post by zanny »

TuringNYC wrote: post #397
zanny wrote: post #372

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> So this will be worse that 2008. 2008 was bad because the collective banks of the US realized trillions in mortgages were money on the books that wasn't real and was never going to be real. The correction involved resetting said books and taking a few banks and a trillion dollars of US taxpayer money along the way. What is the correction this time? All it would really be is a run on confidence in global financial m…

It is very hard to speculate about future crises since often the causes are only obvious in hindsight...but...here I go speculating anyway :-) Firstly, I totally agree with you on 2008 - bank failure driven recessions are always worse than regular recessions, so 2008 already takes a lead. However, there is another aspect -- the 2008 crisis was controlled by a combination of controlling interest rates and other QE mea…

I'm not convinced financial institutions access to capital has anything to do with the current economic malaise. The federal rates had little impact on the recovery, their perpetuation at 0% didn't seem to produce meaningful small business creation, and all the major companies have been spending the better part of the last 5 years doing stock buybacks and avoiding expansion and investment at all costs.

Dropping rates creates speculation of future economic growth that can make stocks go up and thus make the capital class happy their assets are accruing but it seems new business growth is fairly exclusively on the side of consumer demand pretty much this entire century. Increasing money supply isn't doing jack. If theres no money out there looking to buy goods and services you could be giving away money to banks with no meaningful economic benefit for it.

Europe has been in this kind of glut longer than the US has but its infecting the whole world - too few people have enough money to create the real demand that stimulates real economic growth. Theres only so many yachts a billionaire wants or so many summer homes a millionaire stakes. Wealth inequality is the driving force behind the slowdown and none of the forces that participate in shaping policy are aligned with the goal of fixing it.

Re: Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K

#530

Post by tunesmith »

eclipxe wrote: post #526
AlexCoventry wrote: post #356

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It makes you more persuasive. You can align your arguments to their values.

What if they have no values/their views are not based in anything rational or rooted in fact?

I think the part after your slash is a different case than them having correct facts and reasoning, just with different values. In your after-slash case they are "wrong". You're looking at how to have them accept facts and correct their reasoning.

The first part is interesting, but ultimately, if their conclusions were based only on facts and reasoning, their conclusions would only be limited to the area of facts, "is" statements. They would not be able to derive ought/should statements. (If you believe in Hume's Guillotine.)

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