511–520 of 580 posts
Earlier quoted context omitted.
The fact that you can sell or lease out something for more than you bought it for is justification in and of itself.
Not necessarily. The GPU leases Spacex has made are month to month, so they are taking on all of the risk. If demand goes down, they're the ones stuck with the assets.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Or, hear me out, maybe there's a compute shortage and xAI has compute and manages that well. There are no dark GPUs. Compute translates directly to money for these frontier labs. I think everyone is reading way too much into this. Sure there is some circular transactions that are sus, but this ain't it.
Compute is also a rapidly depreciating asset. I want to make a comparison with a car rental business and say that it would be like valuing Hertz entirely on the basis of the number of cars they own, as opposed to how many they rent out, but cars have a much longer depreciation period, if there are no customers they’re not costing you more money, unlike your computer which you are using for training and sucking up mas…
Same with GPUs. There is also a huge market for used GPUs from 1-2 generations ago. The A100 is a six year old chip at this point and is still running strong, especially for inference. Like cars, chips can be refurbished and repaired. A hyperscaler or even mid level player here isn't going to hold onto chips for their entire usable lifespan.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
People “personify” their cars but I don’t think because they think cars have human cognition
People are weird about their cars and make major errors in judgement as a result (e.g. we tolerate incredibly high rates of people getting killed because they were "hit by a car", as though the driver had nothing to do with it). Pushing back on that is absolutely worthwhile.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Can 5% of the population even pay for that? Some kind of huge increase in prices for compute and inference and companies maintaining large bills for AI assistants for key employees or teams (1000-2000$) seems most likely to me.
It would be akin to a cell phone bill, so pricier in the first world, cheaper in the 3rd, but 70% of the global population has a cell phone.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's very unclear to me. The key question is on direction of LLMs. Right now, LLMs are taking over human jobs. If the cost of silicon+power If this applies to SWEs, lawyers, business analysts, many research scientists, .... this situation could persist for a long, long time. While capital costs less than the inputs of labor (nominal food, housing, etc.), there is no need for labor. The key question is about continued…
What I don't understand is if nobody has jobs, who's paying the machines to do anything? So okay cool you don't need people to design and build cars. Who's going to buy the cars and where exactly are they finding money? But see also the "radiologists driving to work" meme for why I think tech in general is currently getting high off their own farts.
Total Cost = F(261) - F(0)
≈ 5,220.00 - (-2,338.19)
≈ 7,558.19Holy F*ck.... SpaceX is going to be the most valuable company of all time by a long shot.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
It is depreciating, but demand has been very high. There's a reason old 3090's went from $600 in 2022 o to over $1K in 2026.
My local inference rig now costs three times what I bought it for. If I'd gotten the max ram I could at the time I would have made $10k after selling the excess to my current spec. How someone can look at an asset class thats appreciated an order of magnitude in the last two years and say it will depreciate in value when the tailwinds are even stronger now is beyond me.
At some point the market will be saturated with supply and prices will come down for older gen hardware. It can take years though, but it happened to fiber cable and fiber doesn't even depreciate like chips.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Cheap. Fast. Good. Pick two. Colossus is the world's largest single, unified GPU cluster, all GPUs acting as one coherent supercomputer rather than fragmented pools or multi-site setups. They spun it up in a fraction of the time by all estimates. It's not something you can just throw money at and reproduce the results. Per Jensen Huang: "As far as I know, there's only one person in the world who could do that; Elon i…
> Elon is singular in his understanding of engineering and construction and large systems and marshaling resources; Ahahaha. Just like when he marshaled resources to buy Twitter? More like he just cracked the whip, and the actual smart people worked day and night to figure it out, or else they’re fired.
The submarine option in the caves? Expensive, not there on time, didn't work. His push for the screens
Hyperloop was apparently his baby. Fails on all 3 counts.
Tesla self driving. Ineffective, overdue and I can imagine the lawsuits aren't cheap.
It looks like we have an idiot in charge where his only advantage is in pressuring his underlings into reckless behaviour and offloading the responsibility and the negative externalities
Anthropic deal is 1.25B a month for half a gigawatt, with it rising up to 1g.(total deal size 2-2.5B a month) add on this google $900m a month and you get 3.4B a month. Starship cost is probably something like (y = (400m - 20m (0.85)^t + 20m, where t is times starship is launched. At 30 launches, they are close to their target of $20m. A single nvidia NVL72 rack's peak performance is around 135w so 1gw (1,000,000 kW…
There's a huge GPU shortage right now, so prices are inflated. In the long term what matters is that
cost of launch + space hardware Electricity is only about 10-15% of the cost of running a terrestrial AI datacenter, so that doesn't give them a lot of room to undercut their terrestrial competitors
> And Google is a major shareholder in SpaceX, so they certainly have incentive to juice the valuation of the IPO. Google own 5-6% of the shares of SpaceX. SpaceX is seeking a valuation of $1.77T which means Google's shares would be worth $88.5B-$106.2B. I'm not a skeptic of AI/LLMs but this makes me deeply suspicious of these circular deals. What happens when the music stops?
"To big to fail" + money printing going brr-r-r-r
When these companies get in to the index and into the pensions, their share price will become a political problem.