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Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

reuters.com

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Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#511

Post by bilekas »

arein3 wrote: post #491
bilekas wrote: post #442

> Spain - like other European jurisdictions - considers prediction markets a form of gambling when bets are placed on uncertain outcomes. What is the defense in the US for example that these are not gambling, "bets are placed on uncertain outcomes", it's that close to, if not the definition of gambling ?

Will spain ban calls and puts as well?

No because investment brokers, who you make your calls and puts with have a license.. Not the same thing. Nobody is asking the gamblers to have a licence, just the service provider.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#512

Post by bilekas »

tstenner wrote: post #503
bilekas wrote: post #442

> Spain - like other European jurisdictions - considers prediction markets a form of gambling when bets are placed on uncertain outcomes. What is the defense in the US for example that these are not gambling, "bets are placed on uncertain outcomes", it's that close to, if not the definition of gambling ?

"It's not gambling when I can effect the outcome!"

Ironically enough, sports players, in the NBA for example are not allowed place bets on their games etc, but they can bet on polymarket I suppose given it's not considered gambling ?

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#513

Post by bilekas »

throwawayffffas wrote: post #504
bilekas wrote: post #442

> Spain - like other European jurisdictions - considers prediction markets a form of gambling when bets are placed on uncertain outcomes. What is the defense in the US for example that these are not gambling, "bets are placed on uncertain outcomes", it's that close to, if not the definition of gambling ?

The defense is that "Bets are placed on uncertain outcomes" also covers all kinds of insurance, the stock market, commodities markets, all kind of derivatives etc. So where is the line drawn? In the US there has been a tremendous amount of money spent on lobbying to keep prediction markets on the not gambling side.

> insurance, the stock market, commodities markets, all kind of derivative

I'm sure you need a license to become an insurance broker, stock broker, commodoties broker.

Gambling license is all they need to get.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#514

Post by thinkthatover »

pennaMan wrote: post #425
embedding-shape wrote: post #301

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also the reason laws aren't overly specific, so these judges can make those judgement calls in the cases. Following the spirit of the law rather than the letter of the law is something many judges care about as well.

You have an US-centric (an really naive) view of the judicial systems of the world. In many countries the judges have to follow the exact letter of the law. In others, this "spirit of the law" excuse makes way for enabling systemic corruption.

funnily enough - "letter of the law" interpretations can be so general that many left US leaning people believe it is abused by the right for systemic corruption: https://youtu.be/l7To2evwGKs?si=i93YDCuqCl5PMPlY

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#516

Post by BeetleB »

daemin wrote: post #407
BeetleB wrote: post #317

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don't quibble on details. The point is that as long as he didn't profit from the bets, he is free to mess around that way. This isn't share price manipulation.

Him placing the bets or a co-conspirator placing the bets and sharing the profit is the same thing. He is effectively betting on himself saying those words which he then goes on to say. I'm pretty sure this is the same as match or race fixing to get the payout from bets made.

> Him placing the bets or a co-conspirator placing the bets and sharing the profit is the same thing.

So we're in agreement that if he is not profiting from saying it, then it's OK, correct?

> I'm pretty sure this is the same as match or race fixing to get the payout from bets made.

If my friends make a bet that I will/won't do something, and I choose to make one side win, that is not match fixing. I'm sure match fixing only applies to regulated games. If people want to make bets on unregulated games, and lose their shirt, they have only themselves to blame.

Here's a paper on match fixing:

https://digitalcommons.lmu.edu/llr/vol56/iss4/9/

For something to be match fixing, the government has to recognize the activity as a sport, and most state laws require the person to benefit from the fixing, which the CEO here is not and/or they require "rule tampering" - there was no rule broken here.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#517

Post by arein3 »

bilekas wrote: post #511
arein3 wrote: post #491

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Will spain ban calls and puts as well?

No because investment brokers, who you make your calls and puts with have a license.. Not the same thing. Nobody is asking the gamblers to have a licence, just the service provider.

Bet it's not a gambling licence though, and not under the same restrictions.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#518

Post by bilekas »

arein3 wrote: post #517
bilekas wrote: post #511

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No because investment brokers, who you make your calls and puts with have a license.. Not the same thing. Nobody is asking the gamblers to have a licence, just the service provider.

Bet it's not a gambling licence though, and not under the same restrictions.

Edit: not sure if you misspelt But for Bet, but a BET is certainly a gamble ?

Right, because it's not gambling, there are different regulations around gambling. All they need to do it GET their gambling license and they can continue, but in this case they will need to follow those regulations. Such as (Italy in this case):

Offer self-exclusion tools for vulnerable players;

Implement identity and age verification procedures;

Comply with anti-money laundering (AML) regulations and GDPR for data protection;

Pay online gaming taxes, which range between 20% and 25% of gross gaming revenue.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#519

Post by throwawaypath »

hunterpayne wrote: post #287
throwawaypath wrote: post #76

Polymarket is a casino. A roulette wheel is not a "market". You can't beat the house.

That's not the definition of a casino. If it were, Poker wouldn't be played in casinos.

You're not betting against "other players," your betting against institutional players that have an edge... A house edge, like a casino.

Re: Spain blocks prediction markets Polymarket, Kalshi over lack of gambling licence

#520

Post by cyphar »

danem wrote: post #478
echelon wrote: post #470

Earlier quoted context omitted.

IIRC, there was one commercial passenger flight where the captain locked himself out of the cockpit that led to everyone dying. Have there been multiple separate incidents? The other side of the coin is that hijackings used to be a frequent and regular occurrence. Now they're not anymore.

You mean the incident where his copilot intentionally locked him out of the cockpit and crashed the plane into a mountain? Hardly seems like an indictment of locked doors to me.

There was also Helios 522 where one of the cabin attendants only managed to enter minutes before the engines flamed out, there is a strong argument if the door wasn't locked he could've entered earlier.

And my understanding is that the current theory for MH370 is that the pilot locked out the copilot and then depressurised the cabin.

There are non-fatal cases like Ethiopian Airlines Flight 702 where the copilot locked the captain out when we was in the restroom (though loss of life was still a possibility, one of the engines had flamed out and was on emergency fuel).

As with all incidents, there are many factors that lead to them, but in these cases the presence of locked and reinforced cockpit doors contributed to the incident (in malicious cases the fact the door was impenetrable was clearly part of the decision-making, and in accident cases it was obviously an impediment to any positive outcome once the incident occurred).

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