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The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

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Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#511

Post by hattmall »

phs318u wrote: post #458
hermannj314 wrote: post #388

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On a technicality, America has won every war it has declared to be a war.

Like the war on drugs.

Yes, The fear with the war on drugs was that a large majority of the population would become addicted to hard drugs. The fear was the the US population would become like China in the 1800s and the communist aligned countries where drugs were produced would have massive trade and power imbalances over the US population. China had as much as 25% of the population addicted to British opium in the 1800s. The US war on drugs has been very successful in keeping the percentage of Americans abusing highly addictive drugs very low.

Imagine the strength of the cartels with 10-20x the customer base and far more frequent usage among them.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#512

Post by bawolff »

cjbgkagh wrote: post #185
bluGill wrote: post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hope you are right, but unfortunately there is no particular reason to trust China's leadership anymore. They are not nearly as obvious at Trump, but they are not on a good path.

I'm explicitly distrusting them, they're saying they want to take Taiwan and I don't believe them. I try to ground my belief in realpolitik, cynicism, and from my experience with strategy games. There is an element of manipulating your opponent into acting the way you want them to by sending them costly false signals, they have to be costly or they won't be believed. I think we (the West) are being played and the gif…

Otoh, if you send the costly false signal of investing in your military, and your opponent doesn't buy it, you might as well use it since you just spent the money anyway and your opponent can't stop you since they didnt believe your signal.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#513

Post by CMay »

0xbadcafebee wrote: post #501
CMay wrote: post #339

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US accepts immigrants from 200+ countries around the world with the top 5 being Mexico, Cuba, India, Dominican Republic and China. None of that has changed under Trump. I think you got lost in the rhetoric somewhere. Tariffs are just the US adjusting to reality which other countries are slow to do. Free trade died all on its own, because the pandemic showed that critical industries were hollowed out by free trade…

Are you seriously trying to reframe the largest tariff war in 100 years, targeting 180 countries and territories, as a readjustment against China? And in both of Trump's terms he's radically changed immigration more than at any time since the 1960's. Either this is a great troll, or you need help, man.

Free trade isn't only a China issue, no. It's only the most important one partly as a function of China propping up massive state companies while also trying to avoid becoming a consumption led economy.

If you feel like formulating a good argument about immigration, I'll listen, but you haven't provided one.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#514

Post by amanaplanacanal »

chrisco255 wrote: post #447
jasondigitized wrote: post #278

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The USA did not take Iran. They essentially shot off fireworks, killed the figure head and then got check mated.

The U.S. isnt checkmated, the U.S. is enforcing a naval blockade against Iran and their oil based economy is in a free fall with rapid inflation. The U.S. is experiencing slightly higher gas prices but economy is still humming. Meanwhile the U.S. military has not exhausted all of its options while Iran has none.

What would you consider a "win" condition here? I have no idea what the American administration is looking for as a win.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#515

Post by bawolff »

cjbgkagh wrote: post #234
bluGill wrote: post #219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unfortunately if you are wrong it is an even worse disaster and so if there is any possibility we are all forced to play their game.

A grifting military industrial complex is unable to defend Taiwan even if it wanted to as evident by the exceedingly poor showing with Iran. The disastrous reality of doing what was done is already with us. If the US didn't take that bait it could have made better choices that would have left it in a stronger position militarily long term, if it made a real attempt at re-shoring civilian manufacturing it could cross…

> A grifting military industrial complex is unable to defend Taiwan even if it wanted to as evident by the exceedingly poor showing with Iran.

These two conflicts would be so different that i don't think it makes sense to draw this conclusion.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#516

Post by kreelman »

fc417fc802 wrote: post #462
trhway wrote: post #427

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At 70-80C (working temp of silicon chips) 1m2 radiates 700-800W, i.e. the heat of 1 GPU like H200 without any need for any cooling equipment beside the radiator itself( and may be some dumb heatpiping) . To acquire that energy you'd need 3-4m2 of solar panels. So a datacenter would be a large field of solar panels with a smaller field of heat radiators in their shadow. To the commenter below: yes, exactly, this is wh…

You can probably (I haven't verified this) omit separate radiators and just use the back of the solar panels. Effectively you're describing mounting each H200 to the back of a 4 m^2 solar array at which point I suspect the equilibrium temperature will fall within an acceptable range. In fact the H200 and electricity are both entirely irrelevant here - the core question is what the equilibrium temperature of a black p…

Would it be feasible to put several JWST-like stirling engines somewhere in the mix to use up some of that heat and turn it into some kind of useful energy? ....

Perhaps running pumps that move around coolant passing over the cubes of GPUs? ..

That would be extra weight/cost into orbit though...

Also, don't solar panels have reduced efficiency when they're hot? And having anything hot surely increases failure rates.. with metals getting closer to melting points...?

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#517

Post by bawolff »

cjbgkagh wrote: post #472
ngruhn wrote: post #449

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I try to ground my belief in realpolitik, cynicism, and from my experience with strategy games I'm trying to do that too but what the hell is going on with Putin? Why does he continue to engage in this ridiculously expensive war? I don't see any evil genius explanation anymore. It just seems like a mix of sunk-cost-fallacy and save-face. I think many geopolitical decisions are actually based in irrational emotions…

I think Putin was and remains a rational actor, I know a lot of how that war is understood in the west is colored by a very effective propaganda campaign that I don’t have the time nor energy to counter. But I will say, in a very broad stroke, we’re heading for a great power conflict and the US has two primary factions on foreign policy; the primacists vs the restrainers, both want to take on China (contain with war)…

Is your claim that Russia is continuing to fight Ukraine as a favour to china in order that china get information on how modern war is fought and intel on western capabilities?

While it is undoubtedly true that china is learning everything it can from this conflict, and that russia is at least a little subservient to china, they aren't so subservient for this explanation to make sense.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#518

Post by archagon »

Danox wrote: post #470
bluGill wrote: post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hope you are right, but unfortunately there is no particular reason to trust China's leadership anymore. They are not nearly as obvious at Trump, but they are not on a good path.

All China needs to do is do what they’re doing play the long game the United States is currently shooting itself in the head, if they’re smart, they should just sit back and watch the show by the year 2100 well you know. And coincidentally that also applies to Russia sit back and watch them do it to themselves. In addition, some of the other countries like Canada, Mexico, Australia, and New Zealand had better get bus…

“China” doesn’t care about Taiwan; Xi does. And he does not have until 2100 to wait.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#519

Post by unethical_ban »

chrisco255 wrote: post #445
ngruhn wrote: post #440

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> but doing it forcefully just isn't something China would realistically do unless they really don't like their path of becoming an international trade and manufacturing hub Sounds rational, but this decision is in a small number of hands. And those hands can change quickly. I also thought the US would never threaten to annex territory of a NATO member.

Offer to purchase imperial territory of a NATO member is not the same as a threat to annex it.

But we threatened to annex it.

Re: The US is winning the AI race where it matters most: commercialization

#520

Post by phs318u »

hattmall wrote: post #511
phs318u wrote: post #458

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Like the war on drugs.

Yes, The fear with the war on drugs was that a large majority of the population would become addicted to hard drugs. The fear was the the US population would become like China in the 1800s and the communist aligned countries where drugs were produced would have massive trade and power imbalances over the US population. China had as much as 25% of the population addicted to British opium in the 1800s. The US war on dr…

If you look at figure 1 on this CDC page (which looks at deaths rather than overall usage), I’d suggest the numbers are trending the exact opposite to what “winning” the war on drugs would look like.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db474.htm

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